Barely any of the numbers pointed to a Daniil Medvedev victory in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. But he surprised world No.1 Jannik Sinner anyway.
Medvedev, currently ranked fifth, rebounded from a set down, then saved two set points in the third set to eventually triumph 6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4) 2-6 6-3.
Into the semifinals for a second straight year, Medvedev next confronts Carlos Alcaraz, who beat Medvedev at the same stage 12 months ago before going on to win his first Wimbledon title.
MORE: Alcaraz targets rare ‘Channel Slam’ at Wimbledon
The form guide had hinted at the 10th installment of the Alcaraz-Sinner rivalry, which would have been their second straight Grand Slam semifinal after a five-set battle at Roland Garros.
But Medvedev prevented that, snapping several streaks in the process.
He had lost his past five matches against Sinner, including the Australian Open 2024 final.
He had lost his past five matches against top-five opponents.
Halle champion Sinner had built a nine-match winning streak on grass.
He won his eighth consecutive set when he snatched the first from Medvedev on Tuesday.
Sinner had won his past 11 tournament quarterfinals.
Plus, the reigning Australian Open champion was targeting a third consecutive major semifinal, and second straight at Wimbledon.
This context made Medvedev’s ultimate triumph all the more surprising, and for the 28-year-old, more satisfying.
“For me it was important to come out today and show that … I'm always going to be there, I'm always going to fight, I'm always going to try to make your life difficult,” Medvedev said.
“Maybe you're going to win more; maybe I'm going to win more. I don't know, but I'm going to fight.
“Even if he won today, the goal was to show him that every time I'm going to be there to fight and to win. Today I managed to do it.”
Diving into more numbers, the on-court statistics did not indicate a Medvedev victory, either.
Sinner led in almost every statistical category: more aces, less double faults, more winners, less unforced errors, a higher winning percentage on both first and second serves, a better strike-rate at the net, and more points won overall.
Still, Medvedev prevailed.
He acknowledged that Sinner wasn’t physically at his best; the world No.1 revealed he had been battling illness and fatigue.
But Medvedev won the tactical battle. “I think he played very smart. He played good tennis,” Sinner observed.
Long famous for his deep return position, and comfort patrolling the court far behind the baseline, Medvedev changed that up on Tuesday.
He was the one more often in attack, coming forward, and forcing Sinner to cover more court.
He’d played with similarly-aggressive intent early in their AO 2024 final, only to fade, but had clearly taken valuable lessons from that performance, and others.
“In general, I try to be closer to the baseline (on grass),” said Medvedev.
“Today a lot of tactical things worked well … I felt like in Australian Open I did a lot of good things tactically. I didn't manage to get it to the end, but I felt like I was playing well.
“I tried to use it today. Mentally it was a good match today because I actually didn't think about the (result of the) match in Australia. I was not before the fifth set (thinking): ‘Oh, my God, it's again five sets’.
“No, I was there to fight, to do my best. Was only thinking about it in a good way to prepare tactically.”
Like his recent record against Sinner, Medvedev endured a losing run against Alcaraz, before spectacularly turning the tables in last year’s US Open semifinals.
That result came when Alcaraz was the defending champion in New York, and he’s the defending champion at Wimbledon, too, when they meet again on Friday.
Should the same result unfold, it would put Medvedev into a seventh major final, where he would attempt to finally win a second – almost three years after his lone Grand Slam victory at the 2021 US Open.
“I try my best. I fight my best. Hopefully I can win some more Grand Slams,” Medvedev said.
“I believe in myself. I believe in my tennis. For me, it's always important when I finish my career to have no regrets.
“I did what I did, whatever titles I have, whatever Grand Slams. Now it's over. Now it's time for something new.”