For the third consecutive Grand Slam tournament, reigning Australian Open champions Aryna Sabalenka and Novak Djokovic both have a chance to snare the coveted world No.1 ranking.
Swiatek’s reign under threat
Iga Swiatek has sat atop the WTA Tour singles rankings for the past 73 weeks.
Only the legendary Steffi Graf (186 weeks) and Martina Hingis (80 weeks) have enjoyed longer stints as first-time No.1s in WTA history.
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However, Swiatek’s dominance is under threat.
The Polish 22-year-old enters the US Open as the defending champion. When the 2,000 ranking points for winning her 2022 title are removed, Swiatek’s current 1,209-point lead over world No.2 Sabalenka evaporates.
Sabalenka’s time?
With last year’s ranking points removed, Sabalenka holds an 11-point advantage over Swiatek.
This means Sabalenka, a semifinalist in New York last year, has a golden opportunity to rise to world No.1 for the first time in her career.
To do so, Sabalenka needs to outperform or match Swiatek’s US Open result.
If she does, Sabalenka will become the 29th woman to top the WTA rankings since their introduction in 1975.
| Current total | US Open result | |||||||
1R | 2R | 3R | 4R | QF | SF | F | W | ||
Swiatek | 9955 | 7965 | 8025 | 8085 | 8195 | 8385 | 8735 | 9255 | 9955 |
Sabalenka | 8746 | 7976 | 8036 | 8096 | 8206 | 8396 | 8746 | 9266 | 9966 |
Swiatek’s challenge
For Swiatek to hold onto the world No.1 ranking, she must advance at least one round further than Sabalenka.
It adds to the pressure on the top seed in New York.
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“I know from my experience already that being a defending champion is not easy,” said Swiatek, who successfully defended a major title for the first time earlier this year at Roland Garros.
“I'm going to kind of take it easy on myself and just try to do everything step by step.
“I'll just fight and I'll see how it's going to go.”
Alcaraz’s fight
Incumbent world No.1 Carlos Alcaraz is also battling to retain his top ranking in New York.
The 20-year-old Spaniard became the youngest man in ATP Tour history to hold the No.1 singles ranking when he won his maiden Grand Slam title at last year’s US Open.
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Alcaraz has since spent 34 weeks in the coveted position – including the past nine consecutive weeks.
He currently holds a slender 20-point lead over world No.2 Djokovic.
Another change at the top?
The contest for world No.1 between Alcaraz and Djokovic has been an ongoing storyline this season, with the top-ranking changing hands between them six times already this season.
This is the most in a single year since 2018.
The most ever recorded in a calendar-year, since the introduction of ATP Tour rankings in 1973, was 10 during the 1983 season.
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A seventh change looks probable in New York.
The No.1 scenario
As Djokovic did not compete at last year’s US Open, he will gain rankings points in every match he plays.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, cannot gain any new points. His task is to defend 2000 points.
This puts Djokovic in a prime position to return to world No.1 – a position he has previously held for a tour-record 389 weeks.
Djokovic, a three-time US Open champion, can secure the top ranking by posting a first-round victory in New York.
| Current total | US Open result | |||||||
1R | 2R | 3R | 4R | QF | SF | F | W | ||
Alcaraz | 9815 | 7825 | 7860 | 7905 | 7995 | 8175 | 8535 | 9015 | 9815 |
Djokovic | 9795 | 9805 | 9840 | 9885 | 9975 | 10,155 | 10,515 | 10,995 | 11,795 |
Alcaraz does have a slim chance of retaining the world No.1 ranking. However, he would need to win the title and hope Djokovic does not win a match in New York.
The probability of this happening is low; Djokovic boasts an unbeaten record in US Open opening-round matches, winning all 16 he has previously played.
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The 36-year-old Serb has only lost in the first round at a Grand Slam tournament twice in his illustrious career – and not since Australian Open 2006, more than 17 years ago.