The numbers that show Alcaraz, Swiatek as US Open favourites

It may seem neither bold nor clever to declare Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek the favourites at the upcoming US Open.

Both are ranked No.1, both are the defending champions in New York, and both have already won majors in 2023. It would perhaps be foolish not to pick them as frontrunners for US Open success.

However, history suggests they could be the favourites at Flushing Meadows for another reason.

In the past 35 years – beginning with the Australian Open’s switch to hard courts at Melbourne Park in 1988 – a trend has emerged across the four Slams, specifically when players win multiple majors in one season.

Women win Roland Garros and the US Open in the same year more often than any other combination of major titles. For men, the Wimbledon-US Open double is most common. 

MEN: Wimbledon-US Open double (since 1988)

In both instances, these doubles have been achieved by more players, in more seasons, than any other combination.

Just last year, Swiatek triumphed at Roland Garros, then went on to win the US Open. She became the sixth player to do this since 1988, after Steffi Graf, Monica Seles, Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario, Serena Williams and Justine Henin.

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In that 35-year span, no other major double has been achieved by more than four women in a season. Just two – Graf and Williams – won Roland Garros and Wimbledon back-to-back.

To clarify, players who win more than two majors within one season are still considered to have achieved a “double”. Serena Williams, for example, in 2002 won three majors, and therefore three doubles: Roland Garros-US Open, Roland Garros-Wimbledon and Wimbledon-US Open.

WOMEN: Roland Garros-US Open double (since 1988)

One similarity between Roland Garros and the US Open is the long build-up to both. Players can enjoy up to two months on clay before Paris, and almost six weeks on North American hard courts before New York. The Australian Open and Wimbledon have comparatively compressed run-ups.

Also, players often enjoy their best career success in Paris and New York, even without winning both in the same season.

Svetlana Kuznetsova won her two majors titles at the US Open (2004) and Roland Garros (2009). Sam Stosur also played her best at these events, winning the US Open a year after making the Roland Garros final. Former world No.1 Jelena Jankovic reached six major semifinals, five which came in Paris and New York combined.

WOMEN’S MAJORS: Achieving the various doubles (since 1988)

You can see a similar trend in the men’s game. Rafael Nadal has won Roland Garros and the US Open in the same season four times: 2010, 2013, 2017 and 2019. The only other double he has achieved more than once is Roland Garros and Wimbledon, in 2008 and 2010.

Todd Woodbridge says the two majors experience similar conditions, particularly inside the stadium courts, where bright sunshine, wind and heat can combine to make the ball fly.

RELATED: Swiatek cements greatness with third major title at US Open

Nicole Pratt supports this view.

"Typically the French Open has quickened up over the years, like when you go and look at the data in terms of, you know, average rally length, the French Open actually over the years has been quicker than the Australian Open,” observed the former world No.35. 

“Especially when you know this past summer that we've had in Europe… that was the quickest conditions of all time. There wasn't one single day that the weather was kind of below 20-21 degrees. So it's quick, and traditionally players have always said at the US Open, oh my god, it's quick, we need a week there to actually be ready to play."

Nadal’s compatriot Juan Carlos Ferrero, in 2003, won Roland Garros and then reached the US Open final. Four years earlier, Andre Agassi won multiple majors in a season for the only time in his career; those victories came in Paris and New York.

More recently, Gael Monfils told Racquet magazine: “It’s a lot of energy. I remember one of my last matches here, at the US Open against (Jannik) Sinner… The atmosphere was crazy. I feel—and I’ve felt—always welcome here. And I always try my best here. It’s a little bit for me like playing in Paris; it’s kind of the same. It’s just insane.”

Monfils has reached the quarterfinal stage at 10 majors. Eight of those quarterfinals have come, collectively, at Roland Garros and the US Open.  

But for all those examples, the women’s trend of winning the Roland Garros-US Open double does not hold as strongly for the men. Instead, it’s more common for men’s champions to thrive in London and New York in the same season.

Woodbridge believes in the men’s game, momentum built at Wimbledon carries through into the hard-court season, a surface on which it is relatively easy to adapt following weeks on grass. 

"To play well on grass, you've got to get confidence, and you've got to be able to adjust to varying bounces, conditions. And once you start to strike the ball well on grass, there's no other feeling as good in tennis,” he said. 

“And so win that tournament (Wimbledon), move on and go to the hard courts, where you're in hot, fast conditions; it's a similar style of play required, particularly to the way grass-court (tennis) is now. 

“The only thing that's necessary is just getting enough of a break.”

The most recent man to do the Wimbledon-US Open double was Novak Djokovic, in 2018. That was the third time he achieved it; he also did so in 2015 and 2011. 

Djokovic became the fifth man to scoop these two Grand Slam titles in one year, after Boris Becker, Pete Sampras (twice), Roger Federer (four times) and Nadal.

MEN’S MAJORS: Achieving the various doubles (since 1988)

“I could only look at Novak’s and Roger’s dominance at Wimbledon, combined with Pete, players whose games for different reasons were well-suited to hard court. And the US Open being pretty much the fastest conditions on tour, especially in the heat, made it a likely double,” Masur observed.

“In Pete and Roger, we had two of the greatest servers of all time, so Wimbledon and the US Open were tailor made for them.”

In 2023, it will be Alcaraz looking to replicate this trend, backing up his triumph at Wimbledon last month with a second US Open title. But unlike Sampras and Federer, and Becker, the young Spaniard is not known for a booming serve.

Pratt believes Alcaraz’ completeness as a player will counter any comparative deficits on serve when he attempts to defend his title in New York.

"He's got the ability to play on all surfaces, and one of the reasons for that is he's just an incredible athlete, incredible mover. Very similar, in the vein of, let's say, a younger Rafa,” Pratt observed. 

“However, I almost feel like his adaptation to what's required, to beat who's in front of him, is probably greater than Rafa's. Rafa was sort of playing the same game style, all the time, and there were a couple of players he had to think about beating. 

“I think Alcaraz is a lot more versatile in terms of his adaptability, to who's on the other side (of the net)."