Leading into the US Open, the men’s tournament focus has been trained almost exclusively on two players – Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz – widely considered to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field.
This focus only intensified after their glorious battle in Sunday’s Cincinnati final, which Djokovic won to avenge his loss in their similarly compelling five-set Wimbledon final.
The understandable excitement this rivalry is generating helps a player like Jannik Sinner fly under the radar when he arrives in New York. Perhaps he shouldn’t, given his own progress.
A week before Djokovic and Alcaraz pushed each other to their limits in the Cincinnati final, Sinner won his first ATP Masters 1000 final in Toronto.
That breakthrough came just one month after he progressed to the Wimbledon semifinals, his best ever Grand Slam showing.
We should not forget that last year he was a point away from defeating Alcaraz in their exhilarating US Open quarterfinal – a match, and tournament, that Alcaraz went on to win.
ALCARAZ DEFEATS SINNER: "Honestly I still don't know how I did it"
“I feel like for sure the confidence is going to be a little bit higher, but also my expectations are going to be higher,” Sinner said after dominating Alex de Minaur in the Toronto final.
“When I came here (to Toronto), I knew that I can play very, very good. So this is a great result, and then we'll see how it goes in the future.”
Sinner, an impressive 41-12 in 2023, sits at a career-high ranking of world No.6.
Australian great Todd Woodbridge believes he is even higher on the US Open favourites list. Third, to be precise, behind Djokovic and Alcaraz.
"For him to win one, you just have to get Novak out of the equation. And then he can win. That's my take,” Woodbridge told ausopen.com.
"If Casper Ruud can make three Grand Slam finals, (then) if Jannik Sinner makes a final, he has a better chance of winning than what Ruud has.
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“I'm sure he's looking at that... Sinner has a bigger game, much bigger forehand, because he stands up in the court. He'll take the backhand return earlier; he has that ability to first strike. So he's got these weapons, and I think he's building to be able to get to that final.
“You'll see a lot of players get to a certain point (at Grand Slams), like a semi-quarter-semi, and then, bang, they do it, and then they run through the gates really well. I think he's that type of player; once he gets there, he's going to do it.
"I think his time is coming. Is it coming at this US Open?”
Power, power and more power
The weapons Woodbridge referenced were evident in Toronto, a tournament Sinner won by beating Matteo Berrettini, Gael Monfils, Tommy Paul and De Minaur, losing just one set.
Sinner entered the final against De Minaur with a forehand averaging 17km/h faster, and almost 900 revolutions-per-minute (RPMs) more on the ball, across his matches in Toronto.
The average speed of 130kph, and average RPMs of 2951, were forehand metrics well above the men’s tournament average – 124.5km/h, 2729 RPMs – observed at Australian Open 2023.
It was also an increase on his own average forehand speed at AO 2023, which measured 128.2km/h.
“I think I always had a quite fluid groundstroke. I was fortunate when I was young that I was not strong physically, so somehow I had to find a way to have a good groundstroke speed. So that's why I worked a lot technically,” Sinner explained.
“Now I'm getting also stronger physically. I'm growing. And I guess the combination of being fluid and flexible but also getting stronger makes you hit the ball a little bit harder.”
It bodes well for his US Open campaign; New York’s quick hard courts typically reward such aggression and power.
Perhaps scarily for the competition, Woodbridge believes Sinner can make further physical improvements.
“He's still just growing into his body,” Woodbridge observed. “He's got speed; that skiing motion in the way he's in and out of the corners. But you're going to see a different type of power from him consistently.”
There are two more encouraging signs for the young Italian, who has notched three top-five wins already this season.
One is his entourage. Woodbridge declared it a “bold move” for Sinner to replace his entire team in early 2022, but an impressive one, given he recognised a shake-up was needed to reach a higher level, and the importance of committing to this new set-up long term.
“I think Darren Cahill has brought a great perspective and balance to (Sinner’s) team,” Woodbridge said of the Australian coach who has worked with former world No.1s Lleyton Hewitt, Andre Agassi and Simona Halep. “This is what Darren does better than any coach in the world; he understands what's required for his athlete on and off the court.”
The second is the manner in which the Cincinnati final unfolded.
Sinner lost early there – aiding freshness for the US Open, while still carrying the confidence from Toronto – yet Djokovic and Alcaraz battled almost four hours in sapping conditions, finishing physically and emotionally spent.
"I think that would have taken 15 per cent out of their battery charge. So where do they start at the US Open? That will be key,” Woodbridge noted.
“The one thing for Novak; he hasn't played a lot, he's had his break. That will give him a massive training boost. But for Alcaraz, that might hurt. And how that will hurt, is when you look at the schedule, and wonder: Why did you play Hopman Cup? Why did you not take that break and just really soak up winning Wimbledon?”
Woodbridge likened Sinner to a blue-chip stock, a prospect that will continue gaining, add returns, and reach an inevitable peak.
The 22-year-old’s career has featured few dips. There was no sophomore slump. There is methodical, reliable progress, plus his increasing comfort at the very elite level of the sport.
"The next step for him is to major,” Woodbridge said.
“His consistency is just extraordinary. By 21, he'd been in all four major quarterfinals. He's now been into a semi.
"He’s certainly a contender.”