As the US Open gets underway in New York, a perennial discussion point is considered – how much does form really matter ahead of a Grand Slam tournament?
Lead-up events give players the chance to build confidence and adapt to the given surface. But for every in-form player who goes deep in a major, there’s another who exits early despite an earlier purple patch. A player might even hoist the major trophy despite abstaining from the lead-up tournaments altogether.
Looking back at the evidence in 2026, we found that an eventual Slam finalist in either the men’s or women’s singles had featured among the top five most in-form players on the relevant surface – in terms of ranking points earned – heading into that major.
In two of the three tournaments, a leading points earner went on to become champion.
Will this trend continue at the US Open?
Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff, both first-round winners in New York, were the ranking points leaders of the North American hardcourt swing heading into Flushing Meadows. Swiatek broke her title drought in Toronto then reached the semifinals in Cincinnati, where Gauff emerged as champion.
A finalist in both Washington DC and Cincinnati, Jessica Pegula was third in the form table and is on the hunt for a maiden Slam title on home soil.
Elena Rybakina was solid on hardcourt as always but arrives under an injury cloud after retiring hurt in Cincinnati’s quarterfinals, while Alexandra Eala is one to watch after winning her first WTA title in Washington DC.
However, world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka doesn’t feature, after earlier-than-expected exits in Toronto and Cincinnati.
Brandon Nakashima topped the men’s list after an impressive hardcourt season, reaching the semifinals or better across Washington DC, Montreal and Cincinnati.
Hot on his heels was a dazzling Arthur Fils who secured his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati and a career-high ranking of world No.11 to boot. However, the Frenchman has already become an example of an in-form player slipping early, upset by Stefanos Tsitsipas 4-6 7-6(3) 6-1 6-4 in New York on Monday.
American hopes Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz, and Spanish teen sensation Rafael Jodar, round out the list after impressive hardcourt campaigns.
The conspicuous absentees include the returning Carlos Alcaraz, who at Flushing Meadows played and won his first match since April due to a wrist injury, and top seed Alexander Zverev, who fell early in Montreal and Cincinnati.
However, based on the evidence this year, there’s a high chance the eventual champions in New York are drawn from the in-form cohorts, particularly on the women’s side.
Leading up to Wimbledon earlier this year, our grass ranking points table highlighted four players who were most on song: Karolina Muchova, Donna Vekic, Linda Noskova and Madison Keys.
Muchova won the title in Bad Homburg, while Noskova lifted the trophy in Berlin – and both made the women’s singles final in Wimbledon.
Noskova went on to beat fellow her Czech 6-2 5-7 6-3 to secure her maiden major title.
The story didn’t hold true on the men’s side, with none of Frances Tiafoe, Francisco Cerundolo, Taylor Fritz or Ugo Humbert reaching the final.
It was Jannik Sinner – who eschewed all lead-in events after faltering at Roland Garros – who hoisted the trophy in London.
But prior momentum proved crucial in both draws at Roland Garros this year.
Mirra Andreeva, Marta Kostyuk, Elina Svitolina, Anastasia Potapova and Coco Gauff were the best performers across the European claycourt swing on the women’s side.
Andreeva was the standout after winning the Linz Open and making the Madrid Open final, the semifinals on Stuttgart’s indoor clay and the final eight in Rome.
It proved perfect preparation as she took home a first Grand Slam title in Paris, downing Maja Chwalinska 6-3 6-2.
Ukrainian stars Kostyuk and Svitolina also made deep runs in the French capital, reaching the semifinals and quarterfinals respectively.
On the men’s side, Zverev – second on the points table ahead of Paris – captured his first Grand Slam title after reaching the final in Madrid and the semis in Monte-Carlo.
Lead-in form again proved important on the women’s side at Australian Open 2026.
Sabalenka defended her Brisbane International crown before rolling to a fourth consecutive final at Melbourne Park, while Rybakina made the final eight in Brisbane before winning her second major title and her first in Melbourne.
Form wasn’t decisive for the men, with Carlos Alcaraz completing his career Slam in Melbourne having not played a lead-in event.
Brisbane’s top seed Daniil Medvedev captured his 22nd career title but fell in the fourth round at the season-opening Slam, while Adelaide International champion Tomas Machac lost in the third round.
Nevertheless, the data across 2026 shows that you can’t ignore the most in-form players in the lead-up to a Grand Slam.