Few US Opens have been harder to predict than in 2026.
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is back but hasn't played singles in four months. World No.1 Jannik Sinner has withdrawn, removing a massive obstacle for the 128 players in the field including reigning Roland Garros champion Alexander Zverev and 24-time major winner Novak Djokovic.
Aryna Sabalenka has won the title in her past two visits to New York but hasn't reached a final since March. Elena Rybakina could overtake her at world No.1 but enters under an injury cloud.
Their main rivals, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, all appear to be rounding into form at just the right time.
Coco and Iga enter the US Open tied at the top of their form 😮💨
Will we see a Grand Slam winner from among these five? pic.twitter.com/jh0ueia6KS— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) August 28, 2026
The stage is set for a thrilling US Open, and we unpack it all in the latest edition of Expert Picks.
Our experts
Casey Dellacqua: Former world No.26 as well as top-five doubles player
Nicole Pratt: Former world No.35 and Australian women’s coach lead
Wally Masur: Former world No.15 who served as Australian Davis Cup captain
Jaimee Fourlis: AO 2022 mixed doubles finalist
Carlos Alcaraz is finally back, but how will he fare as defending champion after four months of no competitive tennis?
DELLACQUA: “It's obviously unbelievable and amazing that he's back playing because the sport needs him. I think it's also been really important that he's taken the time [away] that he's needed, given his age still. We want him in the sport for as long as possible. So I think the break will actually help him in this tournament. When you come back fresh – having been off multiple long term injuries myself – the only thing that is tricky is getting back into competitive match play. Probably the hardest thing is to find that consistency, particularly at a Slam over the length of two weeks. But in terms of his health, that's fantastic [comeback news] because that tells us he's had that time off and his injury is great… [otherwise] he's not going to put himself in a position to play a Slam if he's not ready to go.”
PRATT: “I feel it will be tough for Carlos to defend the title with no matches for such a long time. He will need a favourable draw in the first couple of rounds and maybe that will allow him to find form. First tournament back, at a Slam (with best of five sets) after a significant injury is not ideal.”
MASUR: “He must know that he's in reasonable shape and he's confident that the wrist can hold up to it. I'm sure he's made a prudent decision, but it does seem a little unusual, doesn't it? Most players want a couple of lead-in events to get some matches under the belt and just play with stress and play against the world's best players just to see exactly where you're at before you take on best of five sets. He's a great player. He's got a reputation to uphold. He's the defending champion. He doesn't want to go in there and look foolish, does he? So I'm sure he's done his homework. We know he's a hard worker, he's a great athlete. So he'll give a good account of himself. He has that [draw] protection through his seeding … which might give him some sort of comfort moving into the draw. It’s great to have him back.”
FOURLIS: “From a player's perspective, knowing that when you do enter a tournament, you want to be fit to be able to finish the tournament, right? So you need to have trust in your body and to be able to play five sets for two weeks straight. So he must know that he's done all the work and his wrist will be fine, but also not having played for four months is a bit daunting to be able to know that you can finish a whole Grand Slam. I found it quite interesting that there was no pre-tournament that he was able to play or he didn't opt to play. And we also haven't seen on his socials that he has done a lot of hitting with other people. We've seen a couple like snippets… but we haven't actually seen him play proper sets or points up until the last couple days at US Open.”
And just as Alcaraz returned, Jannik Sinner withdrew. What does this mean for the men's field, in what feels like a wide-open draw?
DELLACQUA: “It does feel wide open. We've all anticipated this Alcaraz-Sinner rivalry and yet this year hasn't really unfolded. But what it has done is obviously created that opportunity for other players to come through. I think players like Zverev, even like a Ben Shelton in New York, depending on where he slots in, or a Novak Djokovic, you can never kind of not discuss him. But yeah, I think Sinner being out after probably being the firm favorite in New York has definitely opened up the draw a lot. So it's a real chance for a lot of the rest of the players in the draw to really grab the opportunity.”
PRATT: “It’s a wide-open draw on the men’s side, no question. It’s been a long time since there has not been a quality three that you favour to win the title. Maybe Djokovic can see the door open for another Grand Slam title?”
MASUR: “We've been talking about the women's draw and how open it is and how we've had a lot of different winners in the Slams in recent times. And I think now we're looking at that scenario for the men. I was going over the results in Montreal and Cincinnati; Learner Tien, a young gun, Ben Shelton, a guy that's showed so much promise, Rafael Jodar, Brandon Nakashima – these are all relatively young players. With the holes in the draw, they're now making their mark. Could it be an American? I always found the US Open a place where if you arrived there playing well, it was great because the conditions are fast. And if you're confident and you feel like you can control the ball and you're swinging freely, there's plenty of value to be had. But if you go a little unsure – this is what we're talking about with Alcaraz – it's a hard place to find form. That's what I always felt. So don't discount someone like Nakashima. I'm not saying he's going to win the event, but don't discount that sort of confidence going into the Open, and he might push deep. Who knows?"
FOURLIS: “It's very open for a Zverev or even a Novak to come back. Again, we don't know how Novak's feeling in terms of if he can last two full weeks of tennis. So it does kind of open up the field again, which is kind of fun because we've seen that a lot on the women's side. It's a new ball game that no one's really had for the last couple of Slams, because we've had the same two people winning pretty much every Slam. I think a lot of players would be a little bit on edge because it could be their opportunity. Sometimes you need a little bit of luck to fall your way, and we could have a new Grand Slam champion for the men's side at the US Open."
Aryna Sabalenka is the two-time defending champion but is struggling, with no finals since Miami. What does she need to do to correct course?
DELLACQUA: “She does play very well in New York. We're moving on to her best surface. I think with Sabalenka, sometimes you need to simplify things. She’s obviously an intense player. She goes out there and tries to hit everything to the best of her ability. And I think that's why we love watching her because she gives it her all. She's a super competitor. I can also empathize with the fact that she's been at the top of the game for so long, so her expectations are very high. I think we all have high expectations for her to win a lot as well. I think for her, she just needs to simplify everything that she does Go back to the drawing board in that way with each match, and then do it time and time again. But I wouldn't be surprised if her level raised just a little bit with a little bit less expectation. Maybe given her results, she doesn't have too much to live up to at the moment.”
PRATT: “In my opinion Sabalenka needs to value the ball she is receiving from her opponents. It seems like every ball she is trying to crush and there is very little margin for error. She needs to rein it in, play with more consistency and not feel like she needs to play in fifth gear from the first ball hit.”
MASUR: “She's kind of on the edge when she plays in the sense that there's no holding back, is there? She can play matches where she hits 60 winners and makes 40 errors. It's extraordinary. It always seems to be on her racquet. So the margins are pretty fine. You lose a bit of confidence. Some of the other players start to play with a bit more variety. They take the ball out of your strike zone. They provide you with less pace or they just do things differently. Has she adapted to that? Are some of the other players getting used to the power? These are the challenges that any player faces over the course of their career, and that's why you take your hat off to those who have been at the very top for 10, 15 years. So that's the challenge for Sabalenka.”
FOURLIS: ”I think we've seen her the last couple months and her temperament on court be very up and down. And I think when you get to those stages, you need to zone in on what works for you and how you end up winning matches and going back to your strengths, and not thinking so much on your weaknesses, but [rather] what got you in the position to be world No.1. She’s there for a reason. Sometimes people have average years, but at the same time, you only need a little bit of luck or a little bit of form to turn that around. That can happen in one or two matches earlier in the week, or even potentially when it gets to quarters and semis where she does find a little bit of that form and it just rolls on.”
So many of Sabalenka’s rivals – Gauff, Swiatek, Pegula – are peaking at the right time and, if healthy, Elena Rybakina could surpass her for No.1. Who's impressed you most recently?
DELLACQUA: “Thinking of where she was at 12 months ago, in tears, struggling on serve, all of that, I just think Coco Gauff has been a real standout. I just think she's been just pretty dominant. I do think the Cincy courts and conditions there are very different to the US Open. So I do think it depends on conditions, but in terms of form and what we've seen and the Coco that we're seeing pretty much since Wimbledon this year, I think she's the standout of all of those.”
PRATT: “Pegula has been consistent again on hard court, her favourite surface. She will go deep at the US Open. Coco loves New York and tends to lift at this event; coming in after the title in Cincy will make her a strong contender for the title. Unfortunately Rybakina seems to be injured so it’s a shame, as she would have likely taken the No.1 ranking from Sabalenka. But she still could, even if she doesn’t play.”
MASUR: “I always feel that the US Open is a little quicker than some of the other events. So that's for me when Swiatek can be a little bit more vulnerable. But she's an awesome player. Sometimes she's her own worst enemy. She's obviously a fairly tightly-wound sort of a person; that can work in her favour or it can be a bit detrimental at times. But I'm not saying to discount her. I'm a bit of a Coco Gauff fan because I think she seems very rational when she plays. She tends to shrug off the few technical deficiencies that she has. She still finds a way to fight through those. She's just an awesome athlete. She just makes so many balls and she's so quick. The backhand is money. She's played well going in.”
FOURLIS: “I think I'm going to have to say Iga. In terms of these girls making a run at this point of the year, form can happen at any time of the year. It's a long season, and we're getting to the pointy of the season and the last Grand Slam. Everyone's trying to make it count, and everyone knows that essentially they can beat anyone.”
Who will win the men's and women's singles titles in New York?
DELLACQUA: “I actually think Gauff’s my favourite. I'm going to pick her to win the US Open. And I'm going to go Alcaraz. He could have a couple of matches where it's like epic five sets, but I think he'll still win.”
PRATT: “For the women’s, I pick Pegula – would love to see her win it after being a finalist. For the men’s winner, it’s time for an American to lift the trophy – either Tiafoe, Paul, Shelton or Fritz. But Rafael Jodar is a dark horse.”
MASUR: “I probably lean slightly towards Gauff at the moment. I've always appreciated the way she goes about a business and she's a real fighter. For the men's, obviously Zverev took advantage [of the open field at Roland Garros]. But Novak being Novak, I just cannot discount him going deep at the US Open. I'm a bit torn between those two to say could they potentially win.”
FOURLIS: “Swiatek is my pick for this US Open. I think she's starting to get herself going and we're starting to see that belief a little bit more than we did at the start of the year. And I think if Alcaraz is playing, you have to tip him. Just because he hasn't played for four months doesn't mean he doesn't know how to play.”