Few second-round draws come as brutal as the one Jannik Sinner faces at Wimbledon.
The world No.1 began his 2024 campaign at the All England Club with a four-set triumph over Yannick Hanfmann, improving his record in Slam matches this year to a sparkling 13-1.
According to some predictive models, Sinner is the favourite for the Wimbledon title. If he triumphs, he would become just the fourth man – after Pete Sampras, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic – to hoist the Australian Open and Wimbledon trophies in one season since the AO switched to hard courts in 1988.
Sinner was also one set away from reaching the Roland Garros final, another result during an extraordinary season in which he has so far won 39 of his 42 matches.
Another extraordinary stat is his record against fellow Italians. In 13 ATP-level main-draw matches against compatriots, he is undefeated.
But few countrymen loom as tough as Matteo Berrettini, whom Sinner next faces at SW19.
There’s so much to like about this match-up, one which drew an audible reaction from the No.1 Court crowd when it was announced during Sinner’s on-court interview.
They are two titans of Italian tennis, Berrettini being the nation’s previous leading man and Sinner its current spearhead.
They’ve played once – Sinner was a winner in straight sets at the Toronto Masters last year – but never before at a Grand Slam tournament, and never on grass, Berrettini’s best surface.
“Tough match, that’s for sure. He played final here. He knows very well how to play on this surface. So it’s a big challenge for me,” Sinner acknowledged. “But I’m looking forward to it. Let’s see what’s coming.”
Berrettini’s time on tour in recent years has been blighted by physical issues. But regardless of how much court time he has, he comes alive almost instantaneously whenever he’s able to step foot on the lawns.
Last year at Wimbledon, in just his second tournament after two months on the sidelines, he completely overpowered 15th seed Alex de Minaur in the second round then scored a straight-sets win over Alexander Zverev to reach the last 16.
In 2022, after another three months out of the game, he promptly won back-to-back grass-court titles in Stuttgart and Queen’s when he re-emerged.
The Queen’s victory saw him defend his title from 2021, the same year he reached the Wimbledon final.
The same pattern has been followed in 2024. After missing all tournaments beyond a first-round Monte Carlo loss in early April, Berrettini came back on grass in Stuttgart and immediately reached another final.
Including Monday's 7-6(3) 6-2 3-6 6-1 win over Marton Fucsovics at Wimbledon, Berrettini is now 29-5 on grass dating back to 2021.
Berrettini’s last Wimbledon ended in four sets at the hands of Carlos Alcaraz, then the top seed who arrived at the All England Club after winning the 500-level title in Queen’s.
Now, it’s Sinner who is the top seed, fresh off winning the 500-level title in Halle.
Berrettini knows that despite his own grass-court CV and weaponry, his compatriot will be tough to stop.
“The first time that I play with him was in Monte Carlo in 2019. I felt something special,” Berrettini recalled.
“The way he was learning so fast, and his attitude; it was just (a) learning process all the time. And he is still doing that. I think that's why he went up so quickly in a way.
“We always forget how young he is. Just at the end of last year I was injured, and I wasn't on tour to see him live with my eyes. And then I had the chance to go in Davis Cup, and it was unbelievable.
“It was like we were looking at each other saying, ‘is this guy real?’ Because he wasn't missing. Hitting every ball full power. It was just the confidence that he built throughout the year was unbelievable.
“I think his secret is that he is really hungry for improvement. That's his secret. And the humbleness that he has about it. Yeah, just special.
“Personally, it gives me so much energy to just try, like, to be there and to play against him and to be at his level.”
It will indeed be a test of Berrettini’s level – and how Sinner rises to the challenge – when they meet in this heavyweight clash on Wednesday at Wimbledon.