When analysing Iga Swiatek’s chances at Wimbledon, many observers noted a projected fourth-round meeting with Jelena Ostapenko – who holds a 4-0 record against Swiatek – as one which could trip her up.
In retrospect, everybody should have focused more closely on the match looming a round earlier.
Swiatek came face-to-face with recent Birmingham champion Yulia Putintseva on Saturday and was ejected from the tournament.
The Kazakh handed the world No.1 a 3-6 6-1 6-2 loss on No.1 court to set up that fourth-round showdown with Ostapenko, who has dropped just 10 games while powering into the last 16.
It’s hard to imagine Swiatek will pay too much attention to what unfolds there; she will instead want to figure out exactly how to approach future Wimbledon campaigns.
For the third straight year, Swiatek arrived at the All England Club after winning Roland Garros. Not only that, in 2024 she’d also won Madrid and Rome, a rewarding but intense clay-court campaign which began back in April.
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By winning her first two rounds at Wimbledon, she extended her winning streak to 21 matches. She also dominated the head-to-head series against Putintseva, winning all four of their matches in straight sets.
When she took the first set on Saturday, she’d won nine consecutive sets against her opponent. But then Putintseva came back at her, and Swiatek admitted she felt drained.
“My tank of really pushing myself to the limits became suddenly, like, empty,” said Swiatek, whose best run at Wimbledon remains her quarterfinal finish last year.
“I was kind of surprised. But I know what I did wrong after Roland Garros. I didn't really rest properly. I'm not going to make this mistake again.
“After such a tough clay-court season, I really must have my recovery. Maybe that's also the reason. But I thought that I'm going to be able to kind of play at the same level.
“I feel like on grass I need a little bit more of that energy to keep being patient and accept some mistakes. Like mentally, I didn't really do that well on this tournament.
“I need to recover better after clay-court season, both physically and mentally.”
Even if she had been feeling physically and mentally fresher, Putintseva would have presented the toughest of challenges.
Whereas grass is Swiatek’s least favourite surface, Putintseva is shining on the lawns. She won the WTA Birmingham title two weeks ago and has defeated a succession of excellent opponents – Angelique Kerber, Katerina Siniakova and now Swiatek – to progress to Wimbledon’s second week.
Putintseva is also known as a gritty fighter who loves playing the role of disruptor, and her forceful presence on No.1 Court demonstrated a player who adores the big stage.
She played a savvy match against the world No.1, landing a high percentage of first serves – helping neutralise Swiatek’s devastating return – and picking the right moments to attack the net.
After 11 unforced errors in the first set, Putintseva clamped down and committed only four for the rest of the match. In the same span, Swiatek sprayed 26.
At one stage, Putintseva won nine games unanswered.
“At some point I was playing fearless. I was (thinking), I can do it, I have to believe 100 per cent, I have nothing to lose, just go for it,” said Putintseva, into the second week of a Slam for just the fourth time.
“It's when the turning point happened, I start to play, like, really, really good.
“Today I'm happy, extra happy, because she didn't lose it; I took it. Like, I was playing really well. This is for me the most important.”
Before this week, Putintseva had never been beyond the second round at Wimbledon. In this career-best Wimbledon showing, she enters her fourth-round clash against Ostapenko with the head-to-head locked at 2-2.
Could her purple patch of form continue here?
“It feels great (to beat Swiatek). But every match is a new match. I cannot focus on what's in the past,” she said.
“I mean, today I did great. But I have another upcoming match in two days.
“I need just to be in my zone, just keep on working, keep on believing.”