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In-form Keys opens the door to maiden Grand Slam triumph

  • Patric Ridge

Aryna Sabalenka was always the favourite to reach the final at Australian Open 2025, but it is a different story for Madison Keys.

Perhaps we were wrong not to consider her as a candidate.

While Keys had not reached an AO final, she had made two semifinals, in 2015 and 2022, and lost to eventual champions Serena Williams and Ash Barty respectively.

She also had plenty of experience, coming into the tournament with 109 major match wins – more than any other player in the women’s draw. Since the start of 2015, only Williams (15) and Sabalenka (10) have reached more major semifinals than the American (seven).

Before AO 2025, her last such semifinal appearance came at the US Open in 2023, when she faced Sabalenka. Keys won the first set 6-0 and served for the match at 5-4 in the second; Sabalenka needed two tiebreaks to turn the match around.

Keys has made the final of AO 2025 the hard way, too, battling back from a set down to defeat Iga Swiatek in the semifinal and doing the same against Elina Svitolina in the last eight. Keys overcame sixth seed and former AO finalist Elena Rybakina in the last 16, after beating another AO runner-up, 10th seed Danielle Collins, in the round of 32.

MORE: Australian Open 2025 women's singles draw

The US Open 2017 runner-up, Keys is the first woman seeded 19th to reach a Grand Slam final in the Open era. In the process, she equalled AO 2018 champion Caroline Wozniacki as the player with the most appearances at the AO (11) before reaching her first final.

She has a gap of seven years and four months between her first and second major finals – that is the longest such time difference of any woman in the Open era.

Patience has certainly been a virtue for Keys, whose 25 major appearances between their first two finals is also a new record, surpassing the joint total of 24 set by Amelie Mauresmo and Marion Bartoli.

To win her first major title, Keys will have to become the first player to defeat the world No.1 and No.2 at a Grand Slam since Svetlana Kuznetsova at Roland Garros 2009, and the first at Melbourne Park since Williams at AO 2005.

That is not the only new ground Keys could break.

At 29, Keys could become the oldest player to win each of her first five matches of a season against opponents ranked in the top 10 since Williams in 2014. And she would be the second oldest woman to claim her first AO singles title in the Open era after Li Na, who was 31 when she triumphed in Melbourne 11 years ago.

Keys, who turns 30 next month, is already the oldest AO women’s singles finalist since Serena and Venus Williams in 2017, and the second oldest woman in the Open era to reach her maiden AO final, younger only than Helen Gourlay, who was 30 in 1977.

But she is in the form of her career.

She came into AO 2025 on the back of winning the Adelaide International title for the second time. Her previous success in Adelaide was followed by a run to the semifinals at AO 2022.

That marked Keys’ longest career winning streak (10) matches, a run she has since surpassed – her defeat of Swiatek made it 11 straight wins.

Her tally of WTA Tour-level victories in 2025 stands at 13, more than any other player this season.

Keys is also at home on Australian soil, where she has won three of her 15 career titles. She has a 60-18 record in Australia. That 76.9 per cent win ratio is only a few percentage points lower than Sabalenka’s 79.3 per cent (46-12).

With Sabalenka having won in Brisbane in early January, it makes AO 2025 the first time since the event moved to Melbourne Park in 1988 that two players will vie for the women’s singles title after winning an Australian summer lead-in tournament.

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Keys will hope she has learned from the chastening experience of her first Grand Slam final back in 2017, when she lost 6-3 6-0 to Sloane Stephens at Flushing Meadows.

But whatever happens against Sabalenka, Keys has offered everyone a reminder of her quality, doing so with a beaming smile and plenty of heart.