Battle for world No.1 to continue at Wimbledon

Reigning Australian Open champions Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka have a chance to rise to world No.1 with strong performances at Wimbledon.

This is the second major tournament in a row where the coveted No.1 position is on the line for both men and women.

History-making fight

The world No.1 men’s singles ranking has already changed hands a remarkable six times this season.

Carlos Alcaraz, the incumbent leader, is currently spending his 10th week atop of the rankings. Djokovic has held the position for the other 16 weeks.

This many changes pre-Wimbledon has only happened twice before in ATP Tour history.

In 2018, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal swapped the No.1 ranking six times before Wimbledon, while in 1983, seven changes were recorded when there was a three-way battle at the top between Jimmy Connors, Ivan Lendl and John McEnroe. 

“I think Novak and I, we are having a beautiful fight, you know, for the No.1,” Alcaraz commented at Queen’s Club last week, where he returned to the top position with a title-winning run.

That fight is set to continue at Wimbledon, where three players have the chance to end the tournament at world No.1.

Who is challenging for top spot?

Alcaraz will begin Wimbledon with a mere 80-point lead atop of the ATP Tour rankings.

Wimbledon was stripped of ranking points last season, after not allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete.

Therefore, players don’t have to worry about defending points at this year’s Championships – there are only rankings points to gain. 

However, only two players, world No.2 Djokovic and world No.3 Daniil Medvedev, could potentially gain enough to overtake Alcaraz.

What does this mean?

Medvedev’s chances of claiming the top spot are slim. The 27-year-old, whose best result at the tournament is a fourth-round run in 2021, needs to win the title.

Even if Medvedev does secure the title, he would still need both Alcaraz and Djokovic to lose before the quarterfinals to rise to world No.1.

Mathematically, Djokovic’s chances are much higher. The seven-time Wimbledon champion needs to make at least the fourth round to be in contention for the No.1 ranking.

From there, Djokovic needs to advance one round further than Alcaraz to return to the top position.

Djokovic has made the fourth round or better in 14 of his 17 career appearances at the tournament. 

Alcaraz’s challenge

To continue his reign as world No.1, Alcaraz must win his first Wimbledon title or finish at least one round ahead of Djokovic.

The 20-year-old Spaniard’s best result at Wimbledon was a fourth-round run in 2022.

“I have a lot of confidence right now coming into Wimbledon,” Alcaraz declared after his triumph at Queen’s Club. 

“I ended the week playing at a high level. So right now, I feel like one of the favourites to win Wimbledon.”

The last time the world No.1 men’s singles ranking changed hands at Wimbledon was in 2014, when Djokovic overtook Rafael Nadal with a title-winning run.

Nine years on, will Djokovic chase down another Spaniard?

Swiatek’s reign under threat

Iga Swiatek is currently spending her 65th consecutive week atop the WTA singles rankings. 

This is the 13th longest reign in tour history and a feat only seven women have achieved before.

Swiatek currently holds an 874-point lead over world No.2 Sabalenka, which she can extend further at this week's WTA 250 tournament in Bad Homburg – where on Wednesday she progressed to her first career grass-court quarterfinal.

If Swiatek manages to win the Bad Homburg title, her lead would extend to 1154 points.

Can Sabalenka overtake Swiatek?

World No.2 Sabalenka could claim the top ranking at Wimbledon. However, she needs to make at least the final to have any chance.

The 25-year-old has come close to achieving this before, reaching the semifinals in her last appearance in 2021.

Swiatek in control

With Swiatek still competing at Bad Homburg, this makes her Wimbledon ranking points scenario a little trickier to calculate.

As it stands, Swiatek is set to enter Wimbledon with at least 9000 rankings points. 

A final appearance at Wimbledon would guarantee Swiatek retains the No.1 ranking, even if Sabalenka won the title.

If Sabalenka loses before the final, Swiatek’s No.1 position in the WTA Tour rankings is assured, regardless of her own result. 

What about Rybakina?

Defending Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina is enjoying a stellar 2023 season and recently peaked at a career-high world No.3.

The 24-year-old was a finalist at this year’s Australian Open and enjoyed title-winning runs at Indian Wells and Rome. 

However, her ranking tally stands at 5090 points. This means even with another title-winning run at the All England Club, Rybakina cannot overtake rivals Swiatek and Sabalenka.