This century, American women have won 11 of 25 Australian Open women’s singles titles.
This year, American top-10 stars Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro have excelled, and they will enter 2025 with a wave of momentum.
Although an Aryna Sabalenka three-peat is a highly favourable tip for the crown, the American trio have put forward a strong case to be among the favourites in January.
Gauff and Navarro are talents in their early 20’s, with many years ahead of them to potentially claim their maiden Australian Open.
But why not now?
Simon Rea and Levi Huddlestone, from Tennis Australia’s Game Insight Group, faced off in a data-driven debate on the latest episode of The AO Show Weekly podcast.
They spoke about why each American should be considered a favourite to win their first Australian Open.
Rea believes Navarro’s recent form – including her most recent victory over Gauff in the US Open fourth round – gives her the edge.
“I think it’s impossible to ignore Emma Navarro’s trajectory,” the former coach of Nick Kyrgios said about Navarro’s rapid rise to world No.8.
“She’s intimidating with her return position, she’s fearless, and she generates a lot more spin than her competition on the forehand side. That’s her point of difference.
“And that’s [a prediction] that’s a little bit outside of the box, but one I think that’s coming with a bullet when I think about her progress.”
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Rea also highlighted Navarro’s great record against her top-10 rivals this year.
Navarro defeated Sabalenka at Indian Wells, Gauff at Flushing Meadows and Wimbledon, and now holds a 3-0 record on hard court against world No.4 Jasmine Paolini.
But Huddlestone believes Gauff has made significant adjustments since her last meeting with Navarro, and enters the Australian summer in top form after her WTA Finals triumph.
“She has a new coach, Matt Daly. I think she’s changing quite a lot of things,” he said.
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“When they met at the US Open, Coco Gauff hit 19 double faults, now that she’s making some improvement on that serve. Perhaps it would be a different match-up if we saw them play.”
Gauff has won 13 of her past 15 matches, including several notable ones at the WTA Finals. En route to the final in Riyadh she defeated top-ranked Sabalenka and world No.2 Iga Swiatek before taking down Zheng Qinwen to lift the prestigious trophy for the first time.
However, considering recent Grand Slam form, Pegula outperformed all Americans and cannot be overlooked as a serious contender.
The world No.7 fell just short against Sabalenka in a thrilling US Open final and will take great belief into next year after posting that career-best Slam result in New York.
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At 30 years of age, it could be that the three-time AO quarterfinalist has the greatest momentum of the three and is ready to take the next step at Melbourne Park.
When you consider the fact that AO 2022 finalist Danielle Collins and two-time semifinalist Madison Keys will join their three countrywomen as seeds, it is certainly going to be an exciting January for American fans.
Listen to the latest episode of The AO Show Weekly with Jon, Brie, and our panel of experts. New episodes released every Thursday, with daily episodes throughout the Australian Open main draw. Subscribe to The AO Show to never miss an episode!