There comes a point in a tournament when a former Grand Slam champion is forced to trade in their ‘sleeper in the draw’ tag to become a genuine title contender.
For Marin Cilic, that moment could be now.
Come quarterfinals stage at a major there is nowhere left to hide, even if the overriding storyline of another Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal Grand Slam final is only gathering steam.
With the sport’s two most prolific major winners occupying the top two seedings they are obvious picks to be the last men standing before the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup on Sunday.
But when ausopen.com spoke to three legends of the game for their take on the race to this year’s title, one name rang common as the man most likely to thwart a Federer or Nadal repeat – Cilic.
The Croat had endured a lean few years at the majors since his 2014 US Open breakthrough.
But a runner-up showing at Wimbledon to Federer last season and a first-time top four ranking in October were an indication the big-hitting 29-year-old was back to his best.
To Grand Slam champions Goran Ivanisevic and Thomas Johansson and two-time Grand Slam runner-up Mark Philippoussis, Cilic has gone from quietly slipping under the radar to standing as a darkhorse for his second Grand Slam title.
It would be a sizeable hurdle to first overcome a 1-5 record against Nadal in the quarterfinals but Cilic’s former coach, 2001 Wimbledon champion Ivanisevic, likes what he has seen over the past week from his former charge.
“He’s one of the best players the past couple of years but Rafa is going to be tough for him,” Ivanisevic said. “Rafa is looking strong, hitting the ball well and the only chance for Cilic to win is if he’s extra aggressive and he needs to serve well. If he doesn’t serve well, there’s no chance.”
Ivanisevic guided the 29-year-old to his 2014 US Open triumph, a tournament in which he played lights-out to send Federer packing.
“That’s a very risky game but this court is very fast, for me it is now the fastest Grand Slam,” he said. “[Tuesday] night is perfect conditions, no sun, no wind.”
Former Aussie No.1 Philippoussis, the 1998 US Open runner-up and 2003 Wimbledon runner-up, backed Ivanisevic’s sentiment as to who stood the best chance at derailing a Federer or Nadal repeat.
“Honestly I think Cilic,” Philippoussis said. “He’s a guy who has the game, has the physique and has the belief against those guys. Every match he’s gotten stronger and stronger. He has been here before.
“You need someone who’s got the weapons to hurt the top guys, but also has that self-belief. He’s one of those guys, you know, No.6 in the world. That’s going to be an exciting match to watch.”
The trio pointed to fast court conditions at this year’s Australian Open as conducive to a player with Cilic’s all-out power.
Johansson, the 2002 Australian Open champion, said this could also favour a two-time semifinalist at Melbourne Park, Tomas Berdych.
“I have to say that players like Berdych and Cilic have gone under the radar completely and nobody talks about them. I think that is great for them,” the Swede said. “Tomas is playing so well and Marin is playing fantastic. These courts are very fast, I would say. It fits Marin very, very well with his big serve and powerful game so Marin playing Rafa is going to be a very interesting match.”
All three scrawling an asterix beside Cilic’s name as the best title darkhorse may come as some surprise. Less so, their pick for the man to beat.
“For me, still the No.1 favourite is Roger, but sometimes when you’re favourite you don’t necessarily win the tournament,” Ivanisevic said.
For Philippoussis, the defending champion was “a slight favourite” over world No.1 Nadal.
“I think the conditions have a lot to do with it,” he said. “We’re going into the second week and playing on these courts on Saturday I just couldn’t believe how fast they were.”
Johansson warned there was no easy time to face the Swiss, and at this stage of the tournament he would only get better.
“I would not be surprised if we see another final between Roger and Rafa,” Johansson said. “It’s very fast so I’d say it’s a little bit of an advantage for Roger.”
No more slipping under the radar for the final eight. Time to put the pundits’ predictions to the test.