Sabalenka could take No.1 ranking from Swiatek at Roland Garros

Aryna Sabalenka is chasing more than Grand Slam glory at this year’s Roland Garros.

The reigning Australian Open champion also has a chance to snare the coveted world No.1 ranking from rival Iga Swiatek.

In fact, Swiatek needs to make at least the semifinals in Paris to retain top spot. If she doesn’t, Sabalenka will rise to the top of the WTA Tour singles rankings for the first time.

The battle for No.1

Although Swiatek will begin the tournament with a 1399-point advantage, that lead evaporates when ranking points earned at Roland Garros 2022 are removed.

As defending champion, Swiatek is set to lose 2000 points. Meanwhile, Sabalenka, who made the third round last year, will have 130 ranking points removed from her tally.

This sees Sabalenka leapfrog Swiatek into the No.1 ranking with a 471-point lead.

What does this mean?

All the pressure is on Swiatek in Paris.

Sabalenka could potentially rise to world No.1 even with a first-round loss, as long as Swiatek exits before the semifinals.

The breakdown of their potential point totals, based on exits in each round, is listed below:

	Current total	RG 1R	RG 2R	RG 3R	RG 4R	RG QF	RG SF	RG F	RG W
Swiatek	8940	6950	7010	7070	7180	7370	7720	8240	8940
Sabalenka	7541	7421	7481	7541	7651	7841	8191	8711	9411

A place in history

The last time a new world No.1 emerged after Roland Garros was in 2012, when Maria Sharapova usurped Victoria Azarenka.

Should Sabalenka claim top spot, she would become only the 29th woman to hold the position since the introduction of the WTA Tour rankings in November 1975.

This would also end Swiatek’s 62-week reign, which is currently the 14th longest in tour history.

Yet Sabalenka is determined to ignore such possibilities.

“This is only way you can play well, and you can show your best tennis,” she said. “(By) focusing on the right things instead of ranking points, defending, all this stuff.”

The likelihood?

Mathematically, Sabalenka’s chances do look good. But let’s not forget that Swiatek has won 21 of her 23 career matches at Roland Garros.

The Pole, who will turn 22 during the tournament, thrives in Paris. If the thigh injury sustained in Rome is not an issue, she will remain the favourite to win a third title.

A title-winning run from Swiatek would deny Sabalenka’s ascension to the top of the rankings, regardless of how the AO 2023 champion performs.

This creates another fascinating storyline to watch as the second Grand Slam tournament of the season unfolds.

Is Alcaraz safe on the men’s side?

The world No.1 men’s singles ranking has changed hands four times already this season, with Novak Djokovic and the incumbent Carlos Alcaraz trading positions.

Djokovic has spent 14 weeks atop the rankings in 2023, while Alcaraz will have spent nine weeks at No.1 by the conclusion of Roland Garros.

The race for world No.1 expands further in Paris, with Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas also in contention.

A four-way battle

World No.1 Alcaraz will begin Roland Garros with a 485-point lead. The 20-year-old Spaniard reached the quarterfinals in Paris last year, so is defending 360 points.

Second-ranked Daniil Medvedev lost in the fourth round in 2022 and therefore moves within 305 points of the No.1 ranking.

Meanwhile, Djokovic made the quarterfinals last year, which means the world No.3 does not make any gains on Alcaraz.

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But unlike Swiatek, who as the defending champion cannot earn more points, all of the men chasing the No.1 ranking can build on their current totals with deeper runs in Paris this year.

Here is the breakdown of potential point totals, based on exits in each round:

	Current total	RG 1R	RG 2R	RG 3R	RG 4R	RG QF	RG SF	RG F	RG W
Alcaraz	6815	6465	6500	6545	6635	6815	7175	7655	8455
Medvedev	6330	6160	6195	6240	6330	6510	6870	7350	8150
Djokovic	5955	5245	5280	5325	5415	5595	5955	6435	7235
Tsitsipas	4775	4605	4640	4685	4775	4955	5315	5795	6595

Who are the biggest challengers?

Tsitsipas’ chances are slim. To rise to world No.1, the 24-year-old Greek needs to claim the Roland Garros title. He also requires Alcaraz to lose before the fourth round and Medvedev to exit before the semifinals.

Djokovic must win the title as well to have any chance of returning to the top spot. The two-time Roland Garros champion would also need both Alcaraz and Medvedev not to reach the final.

This leaves Medvedev as the biggest challenger. However, the newly crowned Rome champion must match his career-best result in Paris and reach at least the quarterfinals to have any chance of overtaking Alcaraz.

Like Sabalenka, Alcaraz is determined to stay focused on his own performances.

“Your biggest rival is yourself,” he explained. “It's not only for me, it's for everyone. You have to control yourself, your emotions first, then playing against the opponent.”

A rare feat

Since the introduction of ATP Tour singles rankings in August 1973, the No.1 ranking has only changed hands three times at the conclusion of Roland Garros.

John McEnroe (replacing Jimmy Connors in 1983), Ivan Lendl (overtaking John McEnroe in 1984) and Rafael Nadal (replacing Roger Federer in 2010) are the only men to achieve this rare feat.

Could a new name be added to this exclusive list in 2023?

We will find out during the next fortnight in Paris.