Who would have thought? A year-end top 10 headed by dual 2017 Grand Slam winners Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. No Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic in single figures. ATP Finals champion Grigor Dimitrov at No.3. Jack Sock at No.8, ahead of Stan Wawrinka.Yes, truly.
Forget about claiming to have seen this coming, for Nostradamus would have struggled to predict the men’s year that’s just been. It all started with Roger and Rafa’s retro Australian Open final for the ages; less surprising were Nadal’s astonishing 10th French Open triumph and Federer’s unprecedented eighth Wimbledon, for by then the gloriously unexpected dual renaissance was in full swing.
The computer declared Nadal to be the year-end No.1; others thought the decision less clear-cut. The Spaniard shared the Slam spoils equally with 19-time champ Federer and took one fewer Masters 1000 gong, with Federer claiming seven titles overall and Nadal, six. How different it all may have been if not for the sliding doors moment that was that Australian Open fifth set.
Still, Federer’s 4-0 record against his long-time nemesis - assisted by that significantly more potent backhand - comes with the caveat that none were played on clay, the Swiss having skipped his least productive swing to prepare for more hospitable grass. What proved to be a sound strategy nevertheless clouds the choice of MVP. Either would be worthy. But probably Nadal. Just. “The year played out the way it did and Rafa was better. He deserves to be there,’’ said Fed. “I’m really happy for him because he had a rough season as well in 2016. It’s great for him.’'
The yearned-for all-star-semi-that-wasn’t at the US Open may have helped to decide matters, only for Juan Martin del Potro to spoil the party, his comeback against Dominic Thiem having already been one of the season’s best. It was Kevin Anderson, though, who would emerge as the lowest-ranked finalist since the system started in 1973. Once there, he succumbed to a relentless Rafa, whose 16th career major came without the need to face an opponent ranked in the top 25.
The subplot: the fact that Nadal and Federer were again dominating the big events meant that a few of the usual suspects were not: notably Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, who both had truncated seasons for reasons that were apparently part-physical, part-other, as well as the injured Wawrinka, a Slam-a-year man for each of the previous three.
For the first time in a decade, there were more than three Masters 1000 titles won by non-members of the exclusive club known as the Big Four. The epidemic of early finishes to the season that claimed Murray, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic opened the door to the top 10, where Alexander Zverev, David Goffin, Sock and Pablo Carreno Busta all finished for the first time.
The change was substantial, and Dimitrov one able to take advantage. He is yet to make a major final, despite coming oh-so-close at Melbourne Park, but won a maiden Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati and then prevailed at the ATP Finals, where an emotional victory catapulted him into the top three and gave an indication of what may be ahead for a 26-year-old now showing some steel to match his unquestioned talent.
The younger Zverev had an inferior year at the Grand Slams, but still ended in the top four with a bullet, after two Masters titles. Jack Sock pinched the last of the ATP’s marquee tournaments, in Paris, then made the semis at the 02, when the diminutive David Goffin upset not just Federer but the thinking that huge weapons are needed to take big steps.
By then, Nadal had limped off for yet more treatment on his suspect knee, but with the cherished gong as the oldest ever year-end No.1 after an “unforgettable” season that would not be soured by its ending.
Federer concurred, before departing for some family time and then preparations for an Australian Open defence. “Considering how last year went, this year was perfect,’’ the 36-year-old said, smiling. As you would. In what was a fascinating tale of the unexpected, there was no more remarkable chapter.
Oranges
- The ageless old guys, Rafa and Roger, split the majors, shared five Masters 1000 titles, finished as the top two for the first since since 2010. And how we loved it. More, please.
- ATP Finalists Dimitrov and Goffin both finished with career-high numbers, and some strong momentum going into 2018. And one who didn’t make it to the 02, Juan Martin del Potro, lit up the US Open, one of the game's unluckiest characters reminding us what might have been.
- Denis Shapovalov, Andrey Rublev, etc. #NextGen coming now.
- Whether 'innovation' is too grand a term for the experiments trialled at the ATP’s Next Gen Finals, the idea was a good one, and the feedback interesting. Bravo, too, the Australian Open’s adoption of a 25-second 'serve/shot clock', strictly policed, among mostly-positive changes already approved for January. Loving the return to 16 seeds 12 months hence, too.
Lemons
- The Next Gen Finals draw. Models in slinky frocks suggestively splitting players into their round-robin groups for the 21-and-under showcase, sharing the stage with the group of young men the ATP hopes will set the example when the current greats depart? What a dreadful misstep. At least the apology was swift and unconditional.
- Injuries. So many of them. For various reasons (including some of the more personal kind), six of the top 20 were done for the year by October. Few disagree that the season is too long and demanding, but attempts at reform are consistently nobbled by competing agendas and the powers of self-interest. Change seems no closer than it ever was.