Player DNA: Djokovic and Nishikori set for baseline battle

It’s day 10 of Australian Open 2019 and the semifinals are in sight for some of the leading names in the game.

World No.1 Novak Djokovic and Japan's Kei Nishikori go toe-to-toe in the night session - Game Insight Group in partnership with Infosys have run the numbers from their opening four matches.

Djokovic v Nishikori

Points of interest

1. A baseline battle! Nishikori comes in with the fastest forehand and backhand average hitting speed of the quarterfinalists. Djokovic is top three for average speed on both wings also.

2. Djokovic has been playing from 70cm deeper in the court than Nishikori and been hitting the lowest percentage of forehands among the players to make the last eight.

3. Nishikori’s three five-setters have seen him do the third most work of all the quarterfinalists and 16% more work than Djokovic in the event so far.

Nishikori faces battle against the odds

Nishikori will enter his quarterfinal match versus Djokovic having already played 18 sets over the course of 827 minutes (13hrs 47mins). Djokovic, on the other hand, has taken only 14 sets and 584 minutes to get to the same stage.

Nishikori's battle to get to his fourth quarterfinal at the Australian Open has not only been a more physical slog than his next opponent, it has been a much more physical journey than nearly any other top-10 player has had to go through to get a quarterfinal spot at the AO.

Since 2000 only one other player has taken 18 sets to get to the quarterfinal. That was Nikolay Davydenko in 2006 who, after clawing his way to the fifth round, lost to Roger Federer in the quarterfinals.

And also since 2000, no other top-10 player has played as many minutes as Nishikori to reach the last eight. The second-closest run was David Nalbandian's 2005 bid in which he took 763 minutes (12hrs 43mins) to finish his first four matches; still one hour less than Nishikori! Nalbandian eventually met his breaking point in the quarterfinal in a 4hr 5min defeat by Lleyton Hewitt.

Of the three top-10 players who took 12 hours or more to get to the AO quarterfinal in the past (Nalbandian in 2005, Davydenko in 2006 and Juan Martin del Potro in 2009), all three lost in the quarterfinal.

What will Nishikori have to do to defy the odds and get to his first Melbourne semifinal?

Given the work he has already had to put in to get to this stage, Nishikori will want to keep points short which means keeping a high percentage of first serves. But rallies are unlikely to be avoidable against a returner as strong as Djokovic. So doing more to maintain an advantage on service points will be key. 

We can get some idea of how Nishikori might maintain a serve advantage by looking at what he did especially well in his shortest match against Pedro Sousa.

In that match, Nishikori's backhand was particularly effective on third shots (his second shot after the serve). On first serves to the Ad court in fact, Kei had a 100% effectiveness on his backhand after first serves. In his other three rounds, the backhand reliability was under 50% on first serves.