When was the last time there was a more highly-anticipated Grand Slam women’s semifinal than the one looming between Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams at AO2021?
The two biggest stars in women’s tennis will clash for just the fourth time ever – and for only the second time at Slam level – on Thursday. Both are working their way toward another major singles trophy to add to their respective collections.
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Osaka, the reigning US Open champion, is playing for a second AO title to boost her tally of majors to four. Yet it is Serena’s Grand Slam chase which is attracting more attention, given the legendary American seeks a record-equalling 24th Grand Slam singles title.
“If that happens, then I'm sure a lot of people will be excited,” Osaka said of the match-up, before Williams had beaten Simona Halep in her Tuesday night quarterfinal.
In their brief competitive history, Osaka and Williams have never produced their best tennis at the same time.
But judging by the way they have progressed at Melbourne Park this fortnight, this could be their highest-quality battle yet.
Previous meetings
The duo first met at the Miami Open in 2018, just a few days after Osaka broke through for her first title at Indian Wells. Given the Miami draw had been made prior to that victory, Osaka was unseeded despite having improved her ranking to No.22, and thus met Williams in the first round.
Williams, in just the second tournament of her comeback after childbirth, was a wildcard ranked No.491, and was rusty in the 6-3 6-2 loss.
“I just kind of wanted to impress her, and I just wanted to make her say, ‘Come on!’ one time, and I think she did, so I’m really happy about that,” Osaka said.
They met again six months later in the US Open final, a match Osaka won 6-2 6-4 to continue her ascent to superstardom. Williams, although in better form at this stage, landed just 38 per cent of her first serves and double-faulted four times in a scratchy opening set, on the back foot against an intense, free-swinging Osaka.
The third and most recent meeting in Toronto was a complete reversal; Williams was brilliant in pounding 12 aces among 31 winners to defeat Osaka 6-3 6-4 in just 76 minutes. Yet it was a subdued performance from the Japanese player, who managed only five winners despite her weaponry.
“I just feel like the entire match I was a bit too defensive,” Osaka reflected.
“This is someone that I looked up to forever. And, actually, this is how I thought the first time I played her in Miami was going to go.
She added, with a laugh: “In a weird way, losing today I accomplished my dream. If there's anyone in the world that I would want to lose to – of course I would never want to lose, but I don't mind losing to her because … this is such a big learning experience for me.”
Master vs apprentice
Osaka has made no secret of the fact she idolises Williams.
She has modelled her game on the legendary American – it is built around a powerful first serve and a first-strike approach – and revealed she watches all of Serena’s matches. Osaka also admitted this week she feels “really intimidated when I see her on the other side of the court”.
This dynamic adds heft to the match-up, which has also attained a certain mystique given it has come tantalisingly close to occurring more often.
The pair looked almost certain to clash in the AO2019 semifinals, when Osaka beat Elina Svitolina in her quarterfinal before Serena surged ahead 5-1 in the third set of hers against Karolina Pliskova. But following a jarred ankle and four missed match points, Williams could not stop the Czech from staging a stirring comeback. Instead, it was Pliskova who became Osaka’s next opponent.
A similar story unfolded at the 2020 US Open, when Osaka won her semifinal over Jennifer Brady and Serena looked poised to set up a dream final when she overwhelmed Victoria Azarenka 6-1 in the first set of the second semi.
But Azarenka rebounded to win in three.
By the numbers
Given their games are so similar, comparing their statistics at this year’s tournament is an interesting exercise.
Williams and Osaka have both performed brilliantly at Melbourne Park, surviving intense fourth-round battles before elevating their games to dominate their quarterfinals.
Both are winning 79 per cent of their first-serve points, with Williams attaining a slightly higher top speed (202km/h) while Osaka a slightly higher average first-serve speed (175.9km/h).
On the return, Serena is winning a higher percentage of points in reply to a first serve (47% v 37%) while Osaka is dealing with second serves more effectively (winning 65% of points, compared to Williams’ 55%).
Osaka is averaging more winners and less errors than Williams throughout her five matches so far. She has also offered opponents less break point opportunities than Williams while saving a higher percentage of them, a sign she is stepping up on serve when the pressure is highest.
Yet Williams is coming to net more often and more effectively, while also winning a higher ratio of points in that crucial 0-4 shot rally range.
There is little separating them, and given both have shown themselves to be impressive big-match players throughout their careers, it is extremely difficult to predict an outcome.
“I think she's a very strong player. I feel like she does everything well. She has a good serve, she has a great return, she's strong on both sides,” Williams said of Osaka.
“First of all, I'm in the semifinal. That's pretty awesome. So that's exciting. And then it doesn't matter who I'm playing really. It's a semifinal of a Grand Slam. No one gets there by chance.
“People are going to want to try to go to the next round, so it will be an interesting match.”