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Rybakina resurgent at Wimbledon fortress

  • Matt Trollope

Of all women who have played as many Wimbledon matches as Elena Rybakina, only Steffi Graf holds a better winning percentage in the Open era.

Rybakina, the 2022 champion, moved to within two wins of a second title at the All England Club after dominating Elina Svitolina in a 61-minute quarterfinal on Centre Court.

Her 6-3 6-2 triumph sets up a semifinal meeting with another resurgent player in 2021 Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova. Krejcikova beat Jelena Ostapenko shortly after Rybakina completed her quarterfinal masterclass.

And we don’t say that lightly. Rybakina played almost flawless tennis, cracking 28 winners to Svitolina’s eight while only committing 15 unforced errors. Seven aces (against just one double fault) contributed to a first-serve winning percentage of 85.

This is the furthest she has progressed at a Grand Slam tournament since her runner-up finish at Australian Open 2023.

But perhaps more notably, the win positions Rybakina as one of the best-performed women – so far in her brief career – throughout Wimbledon’s Open-era history.

Among those to have played a minimum of 20 Wimbledon singles matches, only Steffi Graf – with a win-loss record of 74-7 (91.36%) – has a better winning percentage at the storied tournament.

Kazakhstan's Rybakina has dropped only one set this fortnight, and her win over Svitolina improved her Wimbledon record to 19-2 – a strike rate of 90.48 per cent.

She debuted in the Wimbledon main draw just three years ago and made an immediate impact by advancing to the fourth round, where it took Aryna Sabalenka to stop her in three sets.

She returned the following year and won the whole tournament, and backed up impressively as defending champion in 2023, losing to eventual finalist Ons Jabeur.

Sabalenka and Jabeur remain the only players to beat her at the All England Club.

And just three other women – tennis icons Monica Seles, Chris Evert and Margaret Court – have won more matches in their first 21 outings at any Grand Slam tournament.

“Definitely I'm feeling pretty well on the court, especially last three matches,” said Rybakina, who two rounds earlier dealt Caroline Wozniacki her heaviest professional loss in more than 16 years.

“I think I showed really good tennis. Sometimes serve can be off, but then the groundstrokes are really well. I'm playing pretty confident.

“I think (I’m) staying really aggressive from the first shots. Definitely I think my return improved. The serve is helping me, even though today maybe not as high percentage. But in important moments, I served it out.

“In 2022 I was definitely more nervous than now. It was the first time for me to play on Centre Court. It was a lot of people, a lot of attention.

“Now, of course, I got used to it a little bit. I'm taking these matches in a different way.”

Although Rybakina’s Wimbledon record is as commanding as ever, there was no guarantee she would make it this far.

Health struggles have forced the 25-year-old to withdraw from five tournaments since February, many of them due to gastrointestinal illness.

“As we all know, sometimes you wake up and something can happen,” she said. “Hopefully nothing is going to happen tomorrow.”

But when healthy, Rybakina has been one of the best-performed players on the planet in 2024.

She is through to her seventh semifinal already this season – she has lost only one of those, to Sabalenka in Madrid – and has won 40 of her 47 matches so far.

Thanks to her run at Wimbledon she is projected to leap-frog Sabalenka into No.2 position in the points race to the WTA Finals.

British broadcaster David Law, commentating for the BBC on the Rybakina-Svitolina match, said that a “perfect” version of Rybakina turned up after getting broken in the opening game.

"The sound of the ball strike... I don't think there is a more definitive 'carrot-snap' sound to a groundstroke than Elena Rybakina's, on forehand and backhand,” Law said on The Tennis Podcast.

"Svitolina was walking to her support team, just saying: 'Well, what do I do? I'm playing fine. What can I do about this?' And the truth is, she couldn't do anything.

"Rybakina is going to win this tournament if she carries on playing the way she's playing. She's the best player. On this surface, she's the best player. Maybe (Krejcikova) can reduce Rybakina's level, somehow.

“But I just can't believe that Rybakina plays her best tennis and doesn't win this tournament.”

She faces Krejcikova in the second women’s singles semifinal on Thursday at Centre Court.