When assessing player form ahead of the Australian Open, the “fall” season can offer some insights.
These are the events played in the Northern Hemisphere autumn, from September to November, both in Asia and Europe, which build towards the season-ending WTA and ATP Finals.
Results at this time can be hard to interpret, but we’ll know what to make of them very soon – the new tennis season starts tomorrow at the United Cup, on 27 December in Perth.
Given they follow the US Open, the fourth and final biggest event of the season, some believe these tournaments struggle for relevance and identity in the overall tennis narrative.
After winning the WTA Finals in 2014, Serena Williams never again played a tournament after the US Open (except for Roland Garros in 2020, which was rescheduled to October due to the COVID-19 pandemic.)
But as Williams opted to shut down her season early each year, other players have done the opposite.
WOMEN: MOST TOUR-LEVEL MATCH WINS SINCE US OPEN 2024*
In 2016, Andy Murray knew he had a shot at the world No.1 ranking, and entered five post-US Open tournaments – Beijing, Shanghai, Vienna, Paris and the ATP Finals. He won them all, built a 25-match winning streak and ended the season on top.
Such incredible form doesn’t always translate to Australian Open success.
Two months after that herculean run, Murray fell in the fourth round of AO 2017. There have been many other examples of players thriving after the US Open – Anett Kontaveit in 2021, Felix Auger-Aliassime in 2022 – yet not carrying that form to Australia early in the new season.
Other times, fall-season form can hint at what’s to come.
MEN: MOST TOUR-LEVEL MATCH WINS SINCE US OPEN 2024*
Jannik Sinner’s level in the last two months of 2023 was extraordinary; he won 20 of 23 matches, claimed titles in Beijing and Vienna, led Italy to its first Davis Cup title, and arrived at Australian Open 2024 full of belief.
“At the end of the year I played really good. I have still the confidence inside me, for sure,” Sinner declared before his first-round match.
He went on to win the tournament – his first Grand Slam title – and completed one of the finest seasons in ATP history.
Will it be the same story for Coco Gauff, who captured the WTA 1000 title in Beijing before winning the second-biggest title of her career at the WTA Finals?
WOMEN: BEST TOUR-LEVEL WINNING % SINCE US OPEN 2024^
The American star told the WTA Insider podcast that she had an eye to 2025 as she approached this segment of her season.
"I was treating Beijing and Wuhan and this [the WTA Finals] honestly as like an early start to pre-season,” she revealed.
She said this was a mind-set which took pressure off her as she looked to continue developing her game, and it worked. Her win-loss record of 13-2 gave her the best winning percentage (86.7) of any woman on tour after the US Open.
Only Slovak Rebecca Sramkova, who reached three WTA finals and notched 18 wins, and Chinese star Zheng Qinwen (15 wins) compiled more match victories in the same span.
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Gauff wouldn’t be the first WTA Finals winner to keep the momentum going in Australia; in the past 20 years Amelie Mauresmo, Kim Clijsters, Caroline Wozniacki and Williams were season-ending champions who triumphed at the subsequent AO.
Sinner won the ATP Finals, ending the post-US Open swing with 18 wins, more than any other man in the same period.
MEN: BEST TOUR-LEVEL WINNING % SINCE US OPEN 2024^
Given how he leveraged similar form to triumph at AO 2024, it bodes well as he prepares to defend his title at Melbourne Park in just a matter of weeks.
Key
* Match wins include all main-draw results (qualifying excluded) of WTA/ATP 250, 500 and 1000 tournaments and WTA/ATP Finals, plus Davis Cup Finals and Billie Jean King Cup Finals and Play-offs.
^ More than 5 matches played
- Figures compiled by Stats Perform