A new men’s champion will be crowned at Melbourne Park on Sunday night when two-time Australian Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev and first-time finalist Jannik Sinner square off for the right to be the last man standing.
DANIIL MEDVEDEV [3] VS JANNIK SINNER [4]
1. How they got here
The man affectionately dubbed “The Octopus”, Medvedev, has spent a staggering 20 hours and 33 minutes through six rounds to book his third Australian Open final.
His only straight-sets progression came against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round. Half of his matches have gone the distance – against Hubert Hurkacz in the quarterfinals, and from two-set deficits against Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round and Alexander Zverev in the semifinals.
He won fewer points against ninth seed Hurkacz and sixth seed Zverev, yet still found a way through.
MORE: AO 2024 men's singles draw
Sinner has enjoyed a far more hassle-free route to his maiden Slam final. A model of efficiency, having spent five hours and 49 minutes less on court, the 22-year-old did not drop a set until the semifinals.
He contained seeds Sebastian Baez, Karen Khachanov and Andrey Rublev without too much fuss before he pulled off the biggest victory of his career over 10-time champion Novak Djokovic.
2. What it means
This will be the first men’s singles final at Melbourne Park that does not feature any of the Big Three since 2005, when Marat Safin saw off Lleyton Hewitt. Incidentally, Hewitt and Safin were also the third and fourth seeds.
BONUS: Download your copy of the Australian Open 2024 Official Program
If Medvedev and Sinner go the distance on Sunday night, AO 2024 would tie US Open 1983 on 35 five-set matches for the most in the Open era.
The 27-year-old Medvedev denied Djokovic for the US Open title in 2021, his sole major from five hard-court finals before this run, and has fallen only once in 51 matches after taking the first set on this surface at Grand Slams.
That sole defeat came in a heartbreaker from two sets up against Rafael Nadal in the AO 2022 final.
Sinner stands to become the youngest champion since a 20-year-old Djokovic at AO 2008, and only the second Italian man in the Open era to claim a major after Adriano Panatta at Roland Garros 1976.
3. What to expect
Both men are exceptional movers on hard courts, with Medvedev typically content to counterpunch as long as it takes to draw his opponent out of position. He won’t always have that luxury on Sunday given his opponent’s current level.
Sinner has won 78 per cent of first-serve points to Medvedev’s 75 per cent, but has been notably more effective on second serves, claiming 60 per cent to his opponent’s 48 per cent.
Much boils down to Sinner’s serve. He has been broken just twice in 88 service games, while Medvedev has dropped serve 23 times in 127 games.
Both boast impressive return statistics with Medvedev making 77 per cent, only 2 per cent higher than his opponent. The two have struck 70-plus forehand winners, at least 30 more than off their backhands, but Sinner has achieved these figures in 628 total points won to Medvedev’s 855.
“Mentally 100 per cent, I'm stronger than I was before this tournament, because now I know that I'm capable of some things maybe I thought I'm not … Probably honestly, it's better to be in the final winning three-set, four-set matches,” Medvedev said.
“That's the better way physically. But it is what it is, and I'm proud and looking forward to the final to give my 100 per cent again.”
Expect the Italian to sustain his impressive serving this tournament, and close at net whenever the opportunities arise to expose Medvedev’s deep return position.
4. Head-to-head
Medvedev would become just the sixth active man to claim multiple majors should he win the pair’s first Grand Slam meeting.
Recent history has favoured his younger opponent, however. While Medvedev claimed their first six encounters from 2020, Sinner has narrowly prevailed in their past three.
All 10 clashes have been on hard courts and in 2023, four of their five came in finals. Medvedev claimed the first two, in Rotterdam and Miami, before Sinner, triumphed in Beijing and Vienna.
“I think after last year, especially end of the year, gave me confidence that I could potentially do some good results in Grand Slams,” Sinner said. “But in the other way, you still have to show it, no? There are people who talk a lot, but you have to show it, no, because at the end of the day you're going on the court, and you have to play… I'm really relaxed, to be honest.”
5. Who wins and why
Medvedev has showed he has what it takes to stay the course even if slow out of the blocks this fortnight and has the experience of five prior Grand Slam finals, but how well he rebounds against a fresher, sweetly-striking Sinner is the big question.
This is the first major final he has not faced either Nadal or Djokovic, and while Sinner will carry added nerves in his first outing this deep at a Slam, he has never looked or sounded so assured.
Winner: Sinner in four.