Rafael Nadal is set to make a highly-anticipated comeback in January — and there is history on the line during the Australian summer.
The Spaniard, a 20-time Grand Slam singles champion, will target the all-time men’s record of 21 major titles at Australian Open 2022, which would separate him from legendary contemporaries Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.
However, he is 13 years removed from his one and only Australian Open triumph and will be playing for the first time after almost six months on the sidelines due to a foot injury; he has played just two singles matches since losing in the Roland Garros semifinals to Djokovic in June.
Nadal made an unofficial return to competition last week at an exhibition event in Abu Dhabi, and while encouraged by his progress in tight losses to Andy Murray and Denis Shapovalov, he admitted he could not “guarantee 100 per cent” he will play first Grand Slam event of 2022.
This is not the first time Nadal will attempt to successfully rebound from a lengthy injury absence. And former world No.15 Wally Masur believes when it comes to predicting Nadal’s chances of doing so again, history is a good indicator of the future.
"Rafa is the consummate professional, he'll leave nothing to chance in terms of his preparation and his comeback,” Masur told ausopen.com prior to Nadal’s appearance in Abu Dhabi.
“I'd say he won't be too far off his best, but like any player, he'll need matches to find his best.”
Masur, now Tennis Australia’s Director of Performance, gained a unique insight into Nadal’s preparations for next season while overseeing the international travels of promising Australian teenager James McCabe, who trained at the Rafa Nadal Academy in October.
“I was liaising with Rafa's management about the time he would arrive, and they were so switched on and professional in their communication. Everything was planned and laid out, and I was like, wow, this is pretty impressive. But then I thought: I shouldn't be surprised, because it's got Rafa's name to it, and I can assume that's how he operates.
“(McCabe) sent me some video of Rafa training. He was out on the hard courts and he was looking strong and hitting well.
“I don't think he does things by half measures. If I was a betting man, I'd say he would come to Australia in pretty good shape.”
Nadal is scheduled to begin his season during the Melbourne Summer Set with an ATP 250 event held at Melbourne Park.
But the inescapable fact is, as a player who loves rhythm and a volume of matches, he will be lacking court time.
Unlike his happier hunting grounds at Roland Garros and the US Open — preceded, respectively, by lengthier clay-court and hard-court swings — the Australian Open forces players to hit the ground running simply because of its position so early in the calendar.
This might help explain why, of the four major tournaments, it is the one he has won least.
Since completing a memorable five-set victory over Roger Federer in the 2009 final, Nadal has reached a further four Australian Open finals and lost them all.
At AO 2021 he looked strong despite similarly limited preparation, advancing to the quarterfinals without losing a set and taking a two-sets-to-love lead over Stefanos Tsitsipas — only to fall in five.
Masur identified other factors potentially pitted against the 35-year-old, but notes Nadal cannot be discounted as he embarks on an incredible 17th Australian Open campaign.
"(He’ll start 2022 after) a long break without any competitive play, and he's one year older. It's a bit like Federer with his knees — he's having trouble bouncing back. I guess that's part of getting older, you just don't recover quite as well,” Masur said.
"Every year the Australian Open surface is slightly different … and the ball-court combination is important. If Rafa is not getting the jump on his forehand, does he have to play longer with it, hit through the ball more, use that forehand down the line more and really maintain his depth, as opposed to letting the court do some of the work for him?
“It could be a whole bunch of little things as to why he hasn't won as many Slams in Australia. But he certainly has played very well here and put in some epic performances.
"Any player would take Rafa's results at the Australian Open and, on just those alone, say that is a wonderful career.”