Jessica Pegula will begin a second straight season as a top-five player, her confidence soaring after several milestones and breakthroughs in 2023.
Will that momentum and belief translate to her first Grand Slam title at Australian Open 2024?
We examine five reasons why it might.
She hits hard
At the recent WTA Finals, the season-ending event open only to the eight best singles players, Pegula topped her group with a 3-0 record and did not drop a set in the round-robin stage.
One of those victories was against then-world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka, arguably the game’s most explosively powerful player.
She beat Sabalenka 6-4 6-3 then sat down for an interview with Tennis Channel, where she was told her average groundstroke speed eclipsed Sabalenka’s during the match.
“I hit really hard,” she responded.
“People don’t seem to think I hit hard. Like, commentators. No, seriously… I don’t know why they say that.
“I think it’s because I look like I’m not. I hit flatter, I don’t hit as heavy maybe as Aryna. Maybe people watching me on TV all the time, they can’t tell, I don’t know. I don’t grunt, I’m not like super physical. So I think that’s why it doesn’t seem like it.
“But I hit pretty hard.” (laughter)
It’s an assertion backed up by high-performance coach and data analyst Simon Rea, who told ausopen.com that Pegula’s average first- and second-serve speeds had increased almost 10kph across the past four Australian Opens.
She’s beaten almost everyone
At those WTA Finals, Pegula then went on to beat Coco Gauff in straight sets to arrive in the final – meaning she’d beaten four top-eight opponents during a brilliant week in Cancun.
She ultimately lost to Iga Swiatek, but she’d already beaten the Polish superstar twice earlier in 2023.
In fact, Pegula has beaten all her other top-five rivals. Having played nearly everyone currently ranked in the top 10, she’s beaten almost all of them, too.
TICKETS: Catch Jessica Pegula in action at AO 2024
The exception is world No.7 and reigning Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova – something we’ll return to shortly.
Pegula went 9-5 against top-10 opponents in 2023, at one stage winning seven straight. And that bodes well, for these players will most likely stand between her and Grand Slam glory at AO 2024.
She’s growing at Grand Slams
Since 2021, Pegula has become a consistent force at major tournaments.
In that span, the American has reached six Slam quarterfinals, including three straight at the Australian Open.
Unfortunately, she is 0-6 in those quarterfinals, but signs indicate she’s getting closer to making a bigger breakthrough.
This is where we return to Vondrousova, against whom Pegula held a point for a 5-1 lead in their 2023 Wimbledon quarterfinal. The wily Czech then staged a remarkable comeback to snatch victory – and went on to win the whole tournament.
“It's better (to at least keep reaching quarterfinals) than not putting myself in those positions, which I have to keep reminding myself,” Pegula said.
“I just have to keep telling myself to put myself in good positions, keep getting better and working on things.”
She wins big titles
Pegula is certainly experiencing high-level success elsewhere.
Three months ago she earned her second WTA 1000 crown in Montreal, to go with her Guadalajara triumph in 2022. In Montreal she beat Gauff and Swiatek to reach the final, where she overwhelmed Liudmila Samsonova 6-1 6-0.
MASUR: Haddad Maia's Zhuhai victory a boost for belief
She’s also a top-five player in doubles, a ranking helped by winning the WTA 1000 title Miami earlier this year alongside Gauff.
Beating the best players at prestigious tournaments, on some of the biggest courts in the world, can only bode well for her Grand Slam aspirations.
She loves the conditions
You could argue the Australian Open, of the four majors, presents Pegula with her best chance to break through.
She’s at her strongest on hard courts, at the quicker end of the spectrum, which is what she enjoys at Melbourne Park.
It helps explain why her winning record at the AO – 12 wins from 16 matches, a 75 per cent success rate – outshines her performance at the three other Slams.
She’ll look to better that performance when her AO 2024 campaign begins in January.
“I just think I need to also take a step back and look that I made three (AO) quarterfinals in three years. I mean, judging by where I was from the first quarterfinal, I've definitely come a long way,” Pegula said after falling to Victoria Azarenka at AO 2023.
“Hopefully it comes together. I definitely want to do better. I want to do more.”