Of the four Grand Slam tournaments, eventual champions at the US Open are perhaps the hardest to predict.
The past five US Opens have been won by different men, and no man has defended the title since Roger Federer in 2008.
Novak Djokovic is the defending champion this time around, but arrives without a hard-court match under his belt since March. The big hard-court titles leading in were shared between Jannik Sinner (Cincinnati), Alexei Popyrin (Montreal) and Sebastian Korda (Washington DC).
Iga Swiatek might be the world No.1 and Coco Gauff the defending champion, but the biggest lead-up titles were won by Aryna Sabalenka (Cincinnati), Jessica Pegula (Toronto) and Paula Badosa (Washington DC).
Like the men’s event, the past five US Open women’s singles tournaments have been won by different players. It’s been a decade since Serena Williams defended her title at Flushing Meadows – she is the last woman to do so.
So, who might triumph in 2024? We turn to our experts to find out.
Experts
Sam Stosur: 2011 US Open champion and now Australian Billie Jean King Cup captain
Todd Woodbridge: A 22-time Grand Slam doubles champion
Andre Sa: Former Brazilian pro who reached Wimbledon 2002 singles quarterfinals
Alicia Molik: Former world No.8 and previous Australian Billie Jean King Cup captain
Storm Hunter: Former doubles world No.1 and 2023 Wimbledon doubles finalist
Simon Rea: Former coach of Sam Stosur and Nick Kyrgios
Novak Djokovic is the defending champion and going for a record major No.25, but has not played a match on hard courts in the lead-up. How do you think he will perform in New York?
STOSUR: "I don't think Novak not playing a lead-up to the Open is a huge worry. Olympics only finished a couple of weeks ago anyway, and he potentially played the best match of the year in that final there against Alcaraz. I think the Olympics was such a huge focus for him this year, and the build-up to try and get the medal. He's achieved that, he's soaked it up, he's enjoyed going back to Serbia and all of those things that come with winning Olympic gold. Now he can put that to bed, be in New York, ready to go. He's playing great again, and he's never going to come into these things feeling unprepared, so I think we'll look for him to have another good result here."
WOODBRIDGE: "I actually think Novak is favourite to win the US Open. Given that he hasn't played a hard-court match since early in the year, I would normally say that I'm crazy for thinking that. But I'm always blown away by what he keeps throwing back at us, in terms of his resilience and results. The situation with coming back from surgery, finding a way to get to a Wimbledon final ... but then the final, just outplayed. At that point, I thought: 'He's done, he's on the other side now and he's not going to bounce back'. Well of course I was wrong, because he comes and wins the Olympics. And now I see him absolutely free as a bird, and he can just free-wheel it. I'm pretty confident that health wise, he's in the best shape he'll have been in for a long time. The rest of the field are tired. He may not have played on hard court, but he's fresh because of his injury, he's had enough matches and comes in with enough confidence."
SA: "I think Novak will be fine. He know how to turn on an extra gear to win matches."
MOLIK: "I know he hasn't played a lead-in tournament; I have seen him riding push bikes up mountains in Montenegro, so that's probably better. He's fresh, which is dangerous. He doesn't always need to play a bunch of tournaments like everyone else on the same surface in order to have success. Novak's gone into Wimbledon and won it without having played a lead-up event. Hard court is actually easier for him to transition to than probably any other surface. I don't see that as an issue at all. He's had so much tennis recently… He's needed to pace himself. I think he's right up there in the conversation.”
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HUNTER: "I don't have any concerns for Novak with his lack of hard-court preparation. I think he obviously has amazing experience. The biggest thing actually is if he's healthy – going back to hard court, it's a more impactful surface, who knows how his knee is? But at the same time he's had some time off now after the amazing gold medal. And you know what? Now that he's got the gold medal, he might just free up – he's literally done everything in tennis that is possible. He's now, almost in a way, just gonna play to try and break records and keep building his Grand Slam titles. So if anything, sometimes that's more scary to face than anything else.”
REA: "(There's) the incredible emotional fillip I think the Olympic triumph and everything that was embroiled in that match provides him, I think he's becoming more accustomed to playing less than he has in previous years, and I think he gets conditions to suit in New York. So I'm expecting him to be absolutely right there at the business end, and in my mind anyway, he's the man to beat right now."
Of the men who have been competing in lead-up tournaments, which one has impressed you most?
STOSUR: "In saying Novak has enjoyed Olympic gold success and comes here without playing an event, Alcaraz played an event and showed some things that he's never really showed before. A bit of anger, frustration, maybe a hangover from losing that Olympic match because it meant so much to him? I think the usual sort of suspects, Sinner winning Cincinnati was huge. Going into it, if you've had good form coming in, you're always going to feel better going into the Slam."
WOODBRIDGE: "Obviously Sinner won Cincinnati, but now we know he's been dealing with what's going on behind the scenes. Now that it's public ... I think that depletes him coming into the US Open. Alcaraz, I think, is tired. He's had an extraordinary year, and he needs a break. Although he loves the US Open, because it was his first major, I just don't think there's enough left in the tank for him to win. So then, who? I don't really see anybody other than Zverev, who has been Mr. Consistency over the last 18 months in these tournaments. If you look at everything on paper in the lead-up, actually it's one of his best chances to win a major.”
SA: "Most impressive have been Sinner and Zverev, but I can’t count Alcaraz out."
MOLIK: "I have liked the way that Tiafoe has been playing, also Zverev. I think those two guys can be in the final four with Novak, honestly. It could be a Ruud, or Korda? The quicker ball at the US Open probably lends itself to someone like a Ben Shelton, where the balls do fizz through a little bit quicker, it's a bit pacier for big servers.”
HUNTER: "I think it's hard to go past Tiafoe, actually, Obviously had a pretty tough year compared to the previous year, but something about playing in the US on the hard courts just brings this extra level about him. And it's really nice to see him make the final in Cincinnati. I think he just really uses the crowd and he's obviously had success at the US Open before, and I think he's a bit of a dark horse. And obviously Alexei winning Montreal, that was incredible. He beat some unbelievable players along the way. Now he's seeded at US Open. On paper, he has kind of an easier first and second round, and I think if you get through the first few rounds, things change, things open up.”
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REA: "I quite like the way Seb Korda's been showing progression and building momentum. A slip-up in Cincinnati, going down early to Carreno Busta. But he'd been deep in Montreal, he won Washington DC before that, so I think his momentum is really building. In terms of claiming some good wins along the way, knocked off Fritz and Zverev, his ranking's been building towards a career-high, so outside of the usual suspects, I think he's one that is coming in with a really good profile to potentially go deep at the US Open this year."
Suddenly the women’s field feels more open again, with the big titles and results being shared between different names. Who stands out at the US Open?
STOSUR: "I think as far as form goes, I think Sabalenka's probably leading the charge at the moment, (as) Cincinnati winner. But gee, Pegula's had a good couple of weeks, that's for sure. Toronto winner and then final in Cincy. So she's definitely one of the in-form players. Has not had that breakthrough in a Grand Slam yet; I don't believe she's made it to a semi? So if she can manage to do that and get her best Grand Slam result of her career, that would be a hell of an effort given her last couple of weeks of form. She'll have crowd support and everything else.”
WOODBRIDGE: "Sabalenka's the clear favourite for me. Didn't have Wimbledon or the Olympics, is fit and fresh again. Wins Cincinnati comfortably, dominating. So there's no lack of prep. And really, the US Open should be a surface that suits her very well. She's been close in previous years. She got Iga's number, in the lead-up. I just think her power game there is almost too big for everybody else.”
SA: "Tough to predict anything on the women’s side, it’s very open. Pegula is playing great tennis leading up, and Sabalenka also. Paula Badosa is back at her best level, so it will be interesting."
MOLIK: "There's probably one more potential new Slam winner that can win the US Open this year, and that's Jess Pegula. If she's gonna have a year, it's this year… I think having won a title so close to the US Open, I think she's a definite chance. But I think you've got to go Gauff, you have to throw Sabalenka in there, of course Swiatek is up there as well. Rybakina maybe hasn't been playing as well as I would have expected, but I think they're probably the bulk of the names. You could have Collins having a run.”
HUNTER: "I would probably at the moment have to go with Pegula and Sabalenka, just based on their current form. Sabalenka was coming back off an injury but beat Swiatek and Pegula and played very well in Cincinnati, and obviously got more of that match-fitness back. And then Pegula, to win Toronto and then go final (in Cincinnati), unbelievable effort. I think in the past, she hasn't performed as well as she could in Slams, or what she's expected to, but I don't think she's playing doubles... I think if she's just focused on the singles she can freshen up and I think that will be really good for her.”
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REA: "Talk about generating momentum and being in New York with a full head of steam up, I think that's Jessica Pegula. I know she's never been to the real pointy end of some of these Slams, but I think she's coming in playing the brand of tennis and attacking the contest and her opponent in a manner that suggests she's determined to have the match on her racquet. I think the fact she's been prepared to go out on a limb in 2024, she's made some changes to her coaching team... she's looking to explore even new territory again beyond what has been an incredibly successful career to date."
How might world No.1 Swiatek fare, chasing her first Grand Slam title off clay in two years?
STOSUR: "I honestly think the conditions are good for her here; she'll be able to get a lot of bounce off her forehand, use the court a lot. Yes, it's quicker than Roland Garros, but it's pretty lively, it's bouncy, her spin's gonna jump. I may not put her as the favourite, but she's No.1 in the world, she's not easy to beat, very few times does she kind of give away a match. Someone like Sabalenka has that firepower and weapons to do so, as does Rybakina, but she hasn't shown she has the form or necessarily the staying power at the moment to beat her. Multiple Grand Slam champion that Swiatek is, and playing (Cincinnati) semis last week, bronze in Paris – yes, I think she has a shot for the title.”
WOODBRIDGE: "I worry a little bit for Iga when she starts talking about how she's tired, we need to look at schedules, and things like that, because usually the No.1 player in the world has the best schedule of anybody that can play. They don't play as much in terms of other events to keep their ranking there. They win the matches they need to. But that's also an indicator to me that she's tired ... you can't under-estimate the energy that's burned going into the Olympics, the village. She's famous, everyone knows her. She didn't quite get what she was after... there's these highs and lows throughout the year and you've got to find a way to keep the fuel tank full. And I think she's come off of that. So it would be a mighty effort, I think, if she was to win the US Open this year.”
SA: "She is probably not playing the level she wants right now, but getting through the first week will give her confidence to make a run for the title."
MOLIK: "It's just interesting listening to Iga's comments leading in. I don't know if she is, but she sounds exhausted, talking about the tour and how long it is ... (comments like this from players) sort of paints a bit of a picture where they are at mentally, or how they're feeling. It didn't sound like she was bouncing around, really eager to start the US Open. When you talk about the speed of the courts, if she's playing later in the day, or at night, it probably suits her even more, slowing down the court and the balls. She's always there or thereabouts, but you have big hitters, huge servers who can just make Iga less dominant."
HUNTER: "She definitely has the ability to win, but I do feel like she isn't in form. I know that sounds really bad, because she has obviously been so dominant. People seeing Sabalenka beating her, and her even just talking – because people also watch press conferences and hear it – about how gruelling the season is, I feel like she's almost maybe a bit tired, a little bit kind of going through the motions. And I think players are kind of like, oh, maybe I do have a chance? Whereas on clay, she's so dominant, you're almost like you don't even believe you can win. I definitely think obviously she's an amazing player who is definitely still a favourite, but it's not surprising if she doesn't win, if that makes sense."
REA: "She's set such a high bar, not just for success but of dominance, that any type of vulnerability or any type of loss at any event becomes a headline item... I think the first week becomes a big challenge for Iga. If she's able to navigate her way through the first week with minimal damage done, petrol left in the tank, generating momentum, feeling good about her game and the conditions, she could win the event. Similarly I think she could be vulnerable to being picked off by someone in the third or fourth round, potentially."
Who will win the US Open men’s and women’s singles titles?
STOSUR: "I'm gonna go with Sabalenka for the women's side. And the men's, gee, I don't know. Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic... Medvedev hasn't been in great form, but he's done exceptionally well here at the Open in the past. It's pretty up in the air, I think. I mean, the women's probably is a little bit too, but the men's is hard to call. But let's go with Djokovic."
WOODBRIDGE: "Djokovic and Sabalenka are my picks."
SA: "Men’s I would say Alcaraz. Women’s is so hard; I would say Sabalenka."
MOLIK: "Novak and Pegula."
HUNTER: "It's really tough, which makes it really exciting to watch. I would absolutely love to see Pegula win a Slam. But I'm gonna say Sabalenka. And then on the men's side, gosh, this is tough. You know what? I'm gonna go with Djokovic. Because I just feel like he's going to be playing with freedom. He's gonna swing and go for it."
REA: "I think Novak's certainly going to be hard to stop, and on the women's side, I'm gonna say that Jess Pegula can do it this time."