Todd Woodbridge believes Novak Djokovic will rebound from his Tokyo Olympics disappointment and arrive at the US Open more relaxed as he targets the calendar-year Grand Slam.
The world No.1 enters the year’s final Slam tournament aiming to become the first man since Australia’s Rod Laver 52 years ago to win all four major trophies in a single season.
It would have been a campaign for an incredible Golden Grand Slam – all four majors and Olympic singles gold in one year – had Djokovic triumphed in Tokyo a month ago.
But by failing to win a medal after losing his semifinal to Alexander Zverev, then the bronze-medal play-off to Pablo Carreno Busta, Woodbridge believes that bitter disappointment has forced Djokovic to reset and recharge.
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"It's forced him to get away, take a break. No lead-up tournaments, which is a bit of a different scenario for him,” Woodbridge said.
“He's going to approach it the same way as he does between Roland Garros and Wimbledon. So it's new and it's fresh, and it's obviously a different challenge altogether.
"I think he's going to come into this US Open more relaxed than we might expect.”
Despite universal acclaim as the game’s best hard-court player, Djokovic has struggled somewhat at the US Open when you compare his results in New York to what he has achieved at the Australian Open, where he is a flawless 9-0 in finals.
By contrast, he has reached eight US Open finals, but has lost five of them. And in his past two visits to Flushing Meadows he fell before the quarterfinals, thwarted by injury in the fourth round in 2019 and exiting due to an unlikely default at the same stage in 2020.
Woodbridge says because the tournament comes near the end of a gruelling season and throws up myriad distractions – Manhattan’s buzz, traffic snarls to and from the venue, restless crowds, heat and humidity – it can be a challenging fortnight to navigate.
“In my experience of playing at the US Open, you needed to be fresh mentally to be able to enjoy New York,” he said.
“You often find breakthroughs from younger players there, because they get this absolute lift from it all.”
Indeed, the US Open honour roll chronicles breakthrough victories for a young Pete Sampras, Serena Williams, Marat Safin, Lleyton Hewitt, Andy Roddick, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Juan Martin del Potro, and, more recently, Naomi Osaka and Bianca Andreescu.
Woodbridge also believes Flushing Meadows’ ‘neutral’ hard-court surface creates more contenders for the title.
Even with the absence of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and defending champion Dominic Thiem, this factor presents a tougher Grand Slam tournament challenge for Djokovic as he plays for history, especially given the form and calibre of the ATP Tour’s many rising stars.
There is world No.2 Daniil Medvedev, arguably the second best hard-courter in the sport and a recent champion at the Toronto Masters.
There is Zverev, the Olympic gold medallist and Cincinnati champion who is enjoying an 11-match winning streak.
Throw in fellow young top-10 talents Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev and Matteo Berrettini, plus Denis Shapovalov, who impressed Woodbridge with his Wimbledon semifinal performance against Djokovic, and suddenly the Serb’s path to victory appears cluttered with roadblocks.
"This chasing crop have still got more to go, but they are better players than they were two years ago, and they keep getting experience and are learning from it," Woodbridge said.
“That will make this tougher for him.”
But despite these credible title threats, and Djokovic’s unusual lead-up to the US Open, plus the enormous pressure he will carry as he continues his Grand Slam quest, Woodbridge still believes the world No.1 is the favourite to prevail.
He thinks Djokovic will feed off the energy – either positive or negative – that a full-capacity New York crowd will generate.
And he says the Serb is, technically and mentally, the strongest player in the field.
"To get to this point where Novak is (playing for the Grand Slam) is extraordinary – Taylor Fritz had him on the ropes in the third round of the Australian Open and he was down two-sets-to-love against both Lorenzo Musetti and Tsitsipas at Roland Garros,” Woodbridge said.
“Several times he's only been points away, or 10 minutes away, from not having this opportunity. Everything has fallen his way. Who knows what happens in New York? That's why this script is going to be so riveting to watch it unfold.
"Definitely he's the favourite. We assume he's fit, he's the cleanest ball-striker that's out there. I think his focus is extraordinary. I thought he handled Wimbledon really well.
“He's the one being hunted.”