At first look, a Grand Slam women’s final between Sofia Kenin – a player ranked outside the top 10 who has never been beyond the fourth round at a major – and world No.32 Garbine Muguruza could be considered as unexpected as they come.
But dive a little deeper, and it begins to make a lot more sense.
The Australian Open 2020 women’s decider on Saturday night pits a two-time Grand Slam champion in Muguruza against one of the game’s most in-form, fastest-rising stars in Kenin.
We examine how we got to this point.
When did they first come onto the radar in Australia?
Muguruza is a known quantity at Melbourne Park, first storming into the fourth round as a 20-year-old in 2014 with an upset win over Caroline Wozniacki at Rod Laver Arena. The following year, she reached the same stage of the tournament, stretching eventual champion Serena Williams to three sets. In 2017, she didn’t drop a set en route to the quarterfinals. With her run to the final in 2020, she has now won 23 of her 30 career singles matches at the Australian Open.
Kenin does not have the same record of success in Melbourne as Muguruza, however, the 21-year-old gave No.1 seed Simona Halep all she could handle in the second round last year, pushing the Romanian to 6-4 in the third set at Rod Laver Arena. That result came the week after she won the WTA Hobart title for her first career trophy.
Grand Slam CV
While Muguruza may have compiled an impressive record in Melbourne, she’s reached even greater heights elsewhere. In 2016 made a statement with first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros – where she has not fallen before the second week since 2014 – and the next year won Wimbledon to confirm her greatness. Two months later, she rose to world No.1.
Kenin first succeeded on the Grand Slam stage back in 2017, where she enjoyed a third-round run at the US Open at the age of 18. She repeated that feat in 2018 and 2019 in New York, while last year at Roland Garros she enjoyed a breakthrough, stunning Serena Williams at Court Philippe Chatrier to advance to the fourth round at a major for the first time.
Form coming in
Muguruza may have endured a lean year in 2019, but her upswing in form at the beginning of 2020 under new coach Conchita Martinez perhaps served as a harbinger. The Spaniard won five of her six singles matches in the lead-up to the Australian Open, progressing to the semifinals in Shenzhen before a quarterfinal finish in Hobart. She is now 11-1 on the year so far.
Kenin fell in the second round at AO lead-up events in Brisbane and Adelaide, but nevertheless carried with her a deep reservoir of confidence accrued after an incredible 2019 season. The American won her first three career WTA titles last year – Hobart, Mallorca and Guangzhou – and soared from world No.56 at the beginning of the year to a peak of No.12 in October. Her 49 match wins in 2019 included five over top-10 opponents.
Path to the final
When Muguruza dropped the first set 0-6 to Shelby Rogers in the first round – still suffering the effects of a virus that forced her to withdraw from Hobart – nobody could have foreseen the progress she would eventually make. After recovering to beat the American and then surviving Ajla Tomljanovic in three, Muguruza switched into “Muguruthless” mode, steamrolling top-10 opponents Elina Svitolina and Kiki Bertens. She beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarters to set up a semifinal against fourth seed Simona Halep, who she beat for her third top-10 win of the Australian Open fortnight. She has now won nine consecutive sets at Melbourne Park.
While Kenin made slightly under-the-radar progress to the fourth round without the loss of a set, it was at this stage she captured attention with her three-set win over Coco Gauff at Melbourne Arena – ending the 15-year-old’s fairytale AO2020 run. After beating Ons Jabeur in the quarters, she stunned world No.1 Ash Barty at Rod Laver Arena in the semifinals, and as a result became a trending topic on Twitter in Australia.