In these two blockbuster matches on Wednesday, four of the world’s top 10 – Hubert Hurkacz, Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev – will leave everything on the line as they vie for the two remaining spots in Friday’s Australian Open 2024 men’s semifinals.
HUBERT HURKACZ [9] VS DANIIL MEDVEDEV [3]
1. How they got here
It’s been a tricky path to the last eight for the duo. Poland’s top male player has spent 10 hours and 51 minutes on court, having had to tough out a five-set second-round bout against Jakub Mensik and a four-set challenge against Ugo Humbert, the 21st seeded Frenchman, the only seed he’s faced.
Medvedev, a two-time AO finalist, has spent 12 hours and 16 minutes on Melbourne Park’s blue courts. Over a third of that total came from a 4 hour and 23-minute comeback over Emil Ruusuvuori, his opponent in the round of 64, an epic five-set match that wrapped up at 3.39 am. The No.3 seed said he got to bed at 7am and then woke up at noon.
The 27-year-old was taken to four sets by Portugal’s Nuno Borges in the fourth round and by Terence Atmane, who retired from their first-round encounter due to cramping. Medvedev’s only straight sets win came against his highest opponent thus far, 27th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime.
2. What it means
Hurkacz, 26, is the first Polish man to reach an AO quarterfinal and has made his first run to the final eight of a major since reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon in 2021, a breakthrough facilitated by his upsets of both Medvedev and Roger Federer.
“[I] gained a lot of experience playing on tour for a couple of years, playing against the best players in the world,” said the world No.9. “My serve has improved as well [as] my return, my knowledge about the tennis, knowledge about myself, also physically I think I'm a better player since then,” added Hurcacz, who believes his mental game has also developed.
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For Medvedev, who is hunting a second major, the match marks the former world No.1’s ninth Grand Slam quarterfinal and a chance to book his seventh major semifinal.
3. What to expect
Several sets may be decided by tiebreaks if Hurkacz successfully adds to the tally of 71 aces that he’s amassed this tournament, the most of any player across both singles draws. The Pole boasts the second-fastest serve at 226 km/h behind Ben Shelton, and will hope to collect as many free points as possible from his best stroke.
“He serves well, it's tough to return his serve,” admitted Medvedev, “that's going to be the key.” The third seed, whose unorthodox style and flat groundstrokes may trouble his foe, knows he must stay solid on his own service games. “[I’ll] either try to break him or go to the tiebreak and try to win the tiebreak,” he said.
4. Head-to-head
Hurkacz leads Medvedev 3-2 and won both their most recent encounters in straight sets, though the 2021 US Open champion has won two of their three hard court battles.
“I'm going to give my best, he's going to give his best, it's an interesting matchup, I would say,” said the Pole, who is aiming to improve his record of 2-7 against top 10 players at majors. “He’s [a] really tricky opponent.”
Medvedev is similarly wary of Hurkacz, who he described as a Grand Slam contender, although with a quick caveat: “I hope not this time.”
5. Who wins and why
The more experienced Medvedev has had a more gruelling path to the final eight but carries more self-belief than his Polish peer. Under pressure, that may speak volumes.
Winner: Medvedev in four.
ALEXANDER ZVEREV [6] VS CARLOS ALCARAZ [2]
1. How they got here
Zverev has spent 13 hours and 47 minutes on court after being stretched to five sets over more than four hours in the second round against Lukas Klein, and again in the fourth round against 19th seed Cameron Norrie, his only seeded opponent so far.
That’s over five hours more than Alcaraz, who took 8 hours and 42 minutes to close out his first four matches – a swift pace that was helped by a retirement by Juncheng “Jerry” Shang during the third set of their third-round battle. The world No.2, who is yet to face a seed, has only dropped one set and a single service game, both to Lorenzo Sonego in the second round.
2. What it means
It’s an 11th Grand Slam quarterfinal for Zverev, and another opportunity for the German to take a step closer to a maiden major title. The 26-year-old doesn’t have a mental block surpassing the final eight juncture like some of his rivals, having reached six major semifinals.
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For Alcaraz, it’s a seventh major quarterfinal and first at Melbourne Park. At 20, he’s the fourth-youngest men’s player to reach the final eight at all four majors, trailing only Boris Becker, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. The dynamic Spaniard has a chance to recapture the world No.1 ranking here in Melbourne and will be eager to reach his first AO semifinal, a step towards a third Grand Slam title on Sunday.
3. What to expect
Alcaraz is a master of variety, so expect baseline rallies, trademark drop shots and a substantial number of net approaches.
Zverev’s first serve can be lethal, so expect the sixth seed to seek out as many free points off it as possible, while also hunting a winner off the third stroke in a rally when on serve. He’s fired 66 aces at AO 2024, and currently sits in fourth position on the overall leaderboard. The German is winning a respectable average of 78 per cent of first serve points and making 74 per cent of his first serves.
4. Head-to-head
Zverev has a 4-3 win-loss record against Alcaraz and narrowing that to just hard courts, leads 3-1.
But the 20-year-old Spaniard has an edge at Grand Slams, with that sole hard-court win coming in straight sets in the quarterfinals of last year’s US Open, a match that followed Zverev’s 4 hours and 41 minute taxing round of 16 upset over Jannik Sinner.
The German won their most recent battle at the ATP Finals in November and will aim to extend his advantage over his more accomplished foe by improving on his 2-14 record at Grand Slams against top-10 opponents.
“I love playing against him, it's always a tough battle,” said Alcaraz. “I have to play my best level, he push[es] me to play my 100 per cent every time.”
5. Who wins and why
The Spaniard may have advantage being substantially fresher than Zverev, though the German reckons he’s not as depleted as he was in New York. “I'm not dead, I'm not completely exhausted, I'm not in the same physical state I was in the US Open,” Zverev said.
Even so, expect innovative point construction and gasp-inducing winners off Alcaraz’s racquet. The confident youngster has been playing some of his best tennis and seems destined to become only the second men’s singles player in the Open Era to reach the semifinals at all four Grand Slams before his 21st birthday – an achievement pioneered by Novak Djokovic.
Winner: Alcaraz in four.