More than six years have passed, and 23 major tournaments, since a female player defended a Grand Slam title – by far the longest span in the Open Era.
Will Emma Raducanu be the player to end that drought?
On current form, it would be startling if the British teenager was to go back-to-back in New York. Yet she is a player capable of surprising us, given her staggering run to last year’s US Open title as a 150th-ranked qualifier.
Few, if any, pundits are predicting Raducanu will go all the way at Flushing Meadows again in 2022.
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And when you talk to Australian experts, they are reflecting that commentary.
“I don't think she'll win the US Open this year, I'm almost certain about that,” former world No.8 Alicia Molik told ausopen.com.
“I think she's still in her developmental stage. I think she'll be in that stage for another couple of years.
“She was the winner out of the box last year, the 'accidental' winner, but she's got a lot of growing to do mentally and physically, game-wise. Having a really good structure around her, and coach.
“But how good is that? She's a Grand Slam champion and still has all that space to be a better player.”
Raducanu has experienced an unsettled 11 months since her major breakthrough, working with several different coaches, sustaining multiple injuries and struggling to build a consistent run of on-court form.
Since beating Leylah Fernandez in that US Open final, the 19-year-old has played 33 matches, for a 15-18 record.
She has not won more than two matches in a row since winning 10 straight in New York, nor progressed beyond a tournament quarterfinal. In that same span, she is 1-6 against top 40 opponents, including 0-3 versus the top 20.
Yet she enjoyed an upswing at the recent WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati, bagelling both Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka in back-to-back matches before falling in two tight sets to in-form world No.8 Jessica Pegula.
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“I don't think she's going to win the (US Open) title,” former world No.35 Nicole Pratt told ausopen.com, echoing Molik.
“But I'm really pleased for her that she has had a couple of those quality wins leading in, because that will certainly give her a bit more confidence than maybe she previously had.
“I'm a big believer in players playing well when they're happy, and when they've got good memories in a certain place. And I think the fact she won last year – I don't feel she's the type of person who gets nervous about what the expectation is. It's more where she's at, at that moment in time.
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“Depending on the draw, I'd like to think she can get through to a quarterfinal of the US Open, and then post that, it's going to be tough, because there certainly are some in-form players.”
The US Open draw was revealed on Thursday, pitting Raducanu against Alize Cornet, who reached the AO 2022 quarterfinals and also the second week of Wimbledon.
Pratt believes Raducanu should fare better against players who don’t possess a powerful, point-ending weapon – and Cornet would be classified among this group.
“Raducanu is extremely solid. There are not a lot of holes (in her game) or weaknesses,” Pratt observed.
“I put her in the category of a (Caroline) Wozniacki, in the sense that Wozniacki didn't have a lot of holes. She was solid day in, day out, got better over time, with experience.
“It's not just the player – it's their competition. Players like (Daria) Kasatkina and (Ons) Jabeur are not going to overpower Raducanu. So I give her a chance against those players. But against (Iga) Swiatek, who's got a bigger game and ball, that's going to be a more difficult project for her.”
However, Cornet is notable for her giant-killing capabilities.
She upset world No.1 Williams at Wimbledon 2014, and ended Swiatek’s century-best 37-match winning streak in the third round of this year’s Championships.
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Facing the defending US Open champion seems a situation tailor-made for Cornet in which to thrive.
I wouldn't miss it for the world ?? https://t.co/3mH1JcHvXy
— Alize Cornet (@alizecornet) August 25, 2022
“Everyone wants to take her (Raducanu) out – everyone loves taking a defending champion out,” Molik said.
“(Last year) I loved her game, her tenacity and her fight. I liked that confidence about her, which you don't always see in the younger, emerging players. And she looked like she belonged; you often don't see that either. She really stepped up. It was amazing.
“I think it would be a great feat for her if she got to the second week this time around. If she doesn't think about it too much, she's got a chance.
“But people will be talking about her, about being the defending champion, and that has to weigh on your mind, doesn't it?”