Ash Barty and Novak Djokovic remain the favourites to take home the singles titles heading into the quarterfinals at Australian Open 2021, according to the data.
The world No.1 pairing topped the predictions, powered by Infosys, as we headed into the first Grand Slam tournament of the year.
And they remain the players to beat having navigated their way through the opening four rounds at Melbourne Park.
The predictions are put together using Elo ratings*, an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.
They factor in every professional match a player has played in their career, taking into account the level of the opponent, the difficulty of the match and whether it took place at tour level or at a Grand Slam.
When adjusted for specific surfaces, they still take into account all of a player’s matches but weigh those on the chosen surface more heavily.
*How do Elo ratings work?
- Elo ratings are already used in many other sports and when applied to tennis they outperform other published prediction methods, including those based on offical rankings.
- Elo ratings factor in all main draw singles matches above the Challenger level.
- Elo is smart about how many points are won or lost. If a player did more than expected in earning a win against a strong opponent, they earn more points than for an easy win. If a player underperformed by getting upset, they lose more points than for losing to an equal opponent.
- Elo ratings can be surface-adjusted, taking into account all of a player’s matches, but weighing those on the specific surface more heavily.
- Elo ratings of players absent from competition for more than three months are deducted 100 points. Walkovers and retirements are excluded.
- Players earn/lose more points for results over the same opponents at Grand Slams compared to lower-level tournaments.