Could another qualifier bag a Grand Slam title, three years after Emma Raducanu became the first to do so?
It remains a possibility at Australian Open 2024 since Dayana Yastremska made the semifinals in what became a wide open top half of the women’s draw.
DRAW: Women's semifinals set at AO 2024
Another possibility? Zheng Qinwen emulating idol Li Na’s feat at Melbourne Park 10 years ago. The duo meet Thursday in the top half of the draw.
The bottom half produced the semifinal that — based on seedings — everyone expected. Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka meets Coco Gauff in a repeat of September’s US Open final.
DAYANA YASTREMSKA [Q] VS ZHENG QINWEN [12]
1. How they got here
Yastremska pulled off a notable result straight away in the main draw by ousting Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova. And mirroring Raducanu’s historic fortnight at the US Open, the Ukrainian hasn’t spent too much time on court. Whereas Raducanu didn’t drop a set, Yastremska has conceded only one. That after all three of her qualifying tussles went the distance.
YASTREMSKA: “It’s important to have family close”
Digging deeper in her career, Yastremska’s ranking tumbled — after being considered a top prospect — due to a provisional doping suspension. In 2021, though, officials cleared her of any wrongdoing.
Ashlyn Krueger, Wang Yafan and Anna Kalinskaya have all stretched Zheng to three sets. Wang twice came within three points of triumphing in the third round, including in a final set tiebreak.
2. What it means
Yastremska became the first women’s qualifier since Christine Dorey in 1978 to make the semifinals at the Australian Open.
It takes on extra significance given the devastation in her homeland.
“I think it's my mission here,” said the world No.93.
AO 2024 marked the second consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal for Zheng, who ventured to that stage in New York working with renown coach Wim Fissette. The 21-year-old has reunited with Pere Riba, the Spaniard in Gauff’s corner at Flushing Meadows, after Fissette rejoined Naomi Osaka’s team.
Zheng’s victories in Melbourne mean she will become the second Chinese player to crack the top 10, joining Li.
What advice did Li give to Zheng when they met at AO 2024?
“It's really simple advice — don’t think too much,” said Zheng, who collected a pair of confidence boosting titles at the end of 2023, including the Asian Games. “But sometimes when you enter on court, it's tough to do it.”
3. What to expect
Expect first-strike tennis. If precision follows, the other player is bound to be on the back foot immediately.
Yastremska’s ball striking and racquet head speed have long been highlighted. When another prominent coach, Sascha Bajin, teamed with Yastremska at the end of 2019, he said: “I had some good offers, but if I could have chosen anyone from that whole roster, including the men, I would have chosen Dayana.”
Fast forward to AO 2024 and Yastremska’s numbers are tidy. The former No.21 has hit 217 winners, 135 more than her opponents.
“(Before) I was putting a lot of pressure on myself, responsibility,” said Yastremska. “Now I just took it everything out of my bag, and I'm trying to enjoy it.”
Zheng has impressed, too. She leads the women’s draw in aces with 44 and places second in percentage of points won on first serve (79) behind Sabalenka.
4. Head-to-head
They duel for the first time, although Zheng remembered Yastremska as the Chinese No.1 climbed the ranks.
“When I was struggling in the Futures (tournaments) before, I already heard her name, big names in WTA, so is already really good player,” Zheng said. “Doesn’t matter if she came from the qualies. Right now I think the people who arrive to semifinal, they all have a super-well level in this tournament.”
COMEBACK QUEEN: Zheng storms into semifinals
Having played the second quarterfinal on Wednesday and also extended to three sets, Zheng must regroup quicker than Yastremska.
Any celebrating will have to wait. “Of course I'm proud of myself,” said Zheng. “Yeah, but this is just the beginning. I still need to play (Thursday). So I need to change fast the mentality.”
5. Who wins and why
Less turnaround time for Zheng might play a role, especially if Yastremska wins the first set.
Separately, Zheng’s first-serve percentage hasn’t topped 56 the whole tournament. If the trend ensues, Yastremska will see plenty of second serves and look to take advantage.
Winner: Yastremska in two
ARYNA SABALENKA [2] VS COCO GAUFF [4]
1. How they got here
Both players reached the semifinals fairly comfortably, though more so Sabalenka. She has yet to drop a set, registered three 6-0 sets — mirroring some of Iga Swiatek’s tournament paths — and no player has gotten more than three games against the bubbly 25-year-old in any set.
Sabalenka indeed leads the women’s draw in percentage of points won behind the first serve (80) and has struck a mere eight double faults, far removed from her rocky 2022 Australian summer.
KEEP CALM, CARRY ON: Sabalenka's recipe for success
Gauff dropped her first set in the quarterfinals against Marta Kostyuk, losing set two. But Gauff rallying from a 5-1 deficit and saving a pair of set points in the opener might have been the most crucial phase of the three-hour duel.
After a wobble in the second — letting slip a 5-3 lead — the 19-year-old recovered in the third.
“Didn’t play my best tennis but really proud that I was able to get through (the) match,” the American stated. “Hopefully got the bad match out of the way and I can play even better.”
2. What it means
Sabalenka became the first defending women’s champion to make the semifinals the following year since Serena Williams in 2016. Further, it’s now six straight semifinals at majors for the former world No.1.
“I'm just playing point by point, and that's it, and fighting for every point without overthinking about my dreams, about what I want to do, about how many Slams I want to win and all that stuff,” said Sabalenka after she downed fellow Grand Slam winner Barbora Krejcikova in the quarterfinals.
Gauff is now 10-0 this season and a win over Sabalenka would bring her within a match of becoming the first female player since Naomi Osaka in 2020 and 2021 to claim the US Open and Australian Open back-to-back.
3. What to expect
The duo can earn free points on serve, always a bonus. Gauff delivered the fastest women’s serve so far at 199km/h and while not as high as Sabalenka’s tally, has captured 72 per cent of her first-serve points.
It might not be a straightforward case of Sabalenka’s attack versus Gauff’s counterpunching but also might not deviate significantly, at least at the start.
Sabalenka is more measured than years ago, with better margins than ever. Gauff’s court coverage, meanwhile, is phenomenal and she possesses different ways to win points.
4. Head-to-head
Gauff leads 4-2 in their head-to-heads, inflicting a heavy blow in the US Open final after Sabalenka controlled proceedings to lead by a set and held break points at the start of the second.
Gauff hung on, then turned proceedings around with her court savvy as Sabalenka’s errors climbed.
INTERVIEW: Movies and mini-golf - Gauff taking "a more fun approach"
Sabalenka had previously won in straight sets in Indian Wells in 2023, while Gauff rallied from 3-0 down in the third set — a point away from trailing 4-0 — to prevail in Canada in 2022.
5. Who wins and why
Will the US Open final repeat itself? Will Sabalenka’s other tough losses at majors in 2023 be a stumbling block? Or will Sabalenka continue to cruise in keeping with her AO 2024 so far?
They are among the intriguing questions.
Winner: Gauff in three