Novak Djokovic’s route to an unprecedented 11th men’s singles crown at Melbourne Park is paved, and his toughest two young challengers, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, loom as his final hurdles.
MORE: AO 2024 men’s singles draw
We break down five of the biggest storylines from the men’s draw for Australian Open 2024.
1. Young guns in Djokovic’s path
The top seed’s winning run in Australia came to an end after 43 straight victories in Perth leading in, but the 36-year-old was more focused on the preservation of his unbeaten 28-match run at Melbourne Park.
The Serbian is expected to be fighting fit again following a right wrist complaint in time for his opening match against a qualifier, and would favour his chances of playing his way into the second week in his bid for a 25th major.
Djokovic’s Davis Cup bogeyman, Sinner, presents arguably his most dangerous prospect before the final in an expected last-four showdown. The 22-year-old Italian saved match points to deny the world No.1 in Malaga after the pair split meetings at the ATP Finals in Turin to end last season.
A rematch of last year’s AO final against seventh seed Stefanos Tsitsipas could eventuate in the quarterfinals, but the Greek must first navigate a way past former world No.6 Matteo Berrettini.
MORE: Seed list confirmed for Australian Open 2024
Djokovic may need to subdue explosive American 16th seed Ben Shelton in the fourth round in a rematch of their US Open 2023 semifinal after former No.1 Andy Murray in a potential third-round clash.
2. Sinner to sizzle early
Smooth-striking and free-moving fourth seed Sinner showed his mettle as the linchpin of Italy’s triumphant Davis Cup team in November to finish 2023 at a career-best mark of world No.4.
A maiden Grand Slam semifinal at Wimbledon last year has only emboldened belief that deeper runs on the big stages beckon, including at Melbourne Park, where he reached the quarterfinals two years ago.
Sinner has a favourable route to the quarterfinals, providing the likes of last year’s semifinalist Karen Khachanov or 17th seed Frances Tiafoe don’t hinder him in the round of 16. He opens against Dutchman Botic van de Zandschulp.
The Italian holds strong records against fifth seed Andrey Rublev and the in-form home hope, 10th seed Alex de Minaur, should a quarterfinal against either pan out.
3. Alcaraz warming to the task
Like his good friend Sinner, Wimbledon champion Alcaraz has opted to skip any official lead-up tournament to hone his craft in practice and exhibition hit-outs before an Australian Open return.
The No.2 seed missed last year’s event due to a hamstring injury before he added a second major title at Djokovic’s expense at the All England Club in July, and the pair could meet in a major final for just the second time at Melbourne Park.
The Spaniard could face his US Open conqueror, third seed Daniil Medvedev, should both reach the semifinals, while he could cross paths with Germany’s United Cup winner, Alexander Zverev, in the last eight.
In a rematch of his 2022 US Open final breakthrough, Alcaraz could face 11th seed Casper Ruud in the fourth round, while 37-year-old former world No.7 Richard Gasquet should pose few great hassles in the opening round.
4. De Minaur ready to break fourth-round hoodoo
After becoming Australia’s first man ranked in the top 10 this week since Lleyton Hewitt in 2006, hopes are only rising De Minaur can push beyond the fourth round for the first time at Melbourne Park.
After falling in straight sets in the last 16 the past two years, to Djokovic last year and Sinner in 2022, De Minaur returns having claimed three top-10 victims already at the United Cup.
His confidence at home has never been higher, but the 24-year-old won’t be looking beyond a difficult opening hurdle against big-serving former world No.3 Milos Raonic, a player he has beaten in the only meeting between the pair.
Should he find a way through, the 10th seed could expect to run into fifth seed Rublev in the fourth round, an opponent he owns a 3-2 record against.
5. Dimitrov dreams of second-week exploits
A second Brisbane International title leading in was just reward following a late-season surge from Grigor Dimitrov.
The 32-year-old snared his first trophy since his ATP Finals triumph six years ago, and his win over top seed Holger Rune at Pat Rafter Arena was a reminder he was not to be discounted as a second-week contender at the Australian Open, where he reached the semifinals in 2017.
MORE: Dimitrov win boosts AO outlook
Seeded 13th, Dimitrov could run into third seed Medvedev in the fourth round, a player he defeated in their most recent outing en route to the Paris Masters final, before a possible rematch with eighth seed Rune in the quarterfinals.
Second seed Alcaraz is a daunting semifinal prospect, but Dimitrov owns a surprise victory over the Spaniard at last year’s Shanghai Masters.