A look over the stat sheet during Roger Federer’s third-round slugfest against John Millman revealed some worrying trends for the Swiss star.
His first serve percentage was down. His double faults were up. Unforced errors were leaking from his racquet; after a collective 34 unforced errors in his first two matches, he sprayed 82 against Millman, with almost 50 coming off his forehand alone.
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But somehow, he won it. And in incredible circumstances, too, trailing Millman 8-4 in the match tiebreak before reeling off six straight points to snatch an improbable victory.
Federer serving stats
| Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | |
| % first serves in | 74% | 69% | 65% |
| First-serve % | 81% | 76% | 76% |
| Double faults | 1 | 0 | 6 |
With his groundstrokes letting him down repeatedly throughout the match – he committed 69 unforced errors off the ground – Federer needed another option to remain alive against a relentless opponent.
According to Infosys data, he found the solution in the forecourt.
Not many players have the versatility in their games that Federer possesses, which allows the Swiss to adjust against opponents with different styles, or switch gears within a match when Plan A is not working.
Recognising his ground game was unreliable, the third seed charged the net more often as the match wore on, and often in response to a setback.
His number of net approaches was highest in sets 2 and 5, after losing sets 1 and 4.
Federer net approaches v Millman
| Set 1 | Set 2 | Set 3 | Set 4 | Set 5 |
| 5/7 (71%) | 13/17 (76%) | 9/13 (69%) | 5/8 (63%) | 14/19 (74%) |
Federer approached the net a total of 64 times against Millman, a number well up from his 32 approaches in the first round against Steve Johnson and the 18 he made in his second-round win over Filip Krajinovic.
Granted, his match against Millman stretched for five sets – while his first two victories were in straight sets – and the fact he won 74% of his net points differed little from his conversion rate at the net in the first two rounds.
But it was the timing of the net approaches that proved notable; Federer advanced to the net six times on crucial points, and won all of those points.
Infosys defines crucial points as those which, when lost by any player, can potentially lead to a substantial change in the outcome of the match.
Each player’s winning and losing probability is calculated throughout the match at every point, and after every point is completed, Infosys tracks the changes in probability for both outcomes.
Points where this change in probability is the highest are deemed crucial points.
And with Federer winning several of those points at the net, it played a part in his unlikely victory on Friday night.