Dominic Thiem is careful never to throw around the term “breakthrough” loosely at a Grand Slam.
Never one to buy into the hype surrounding him, the earnest Austrian – softly-spoken and grounded in self-assessment – dismissed the notion upon reaching his maiden Grand Slam final at Roland Garros two-and-a-half years ago.
“I don't think it's a real breakthrough,” he said at the time. “I mean, I played semis last two years, so just went one step further today.”
He reiterated this sentiment earlier this week ahead of his first Australian Open semifinal against German Alexander Zverev.
MORE: Thiem topples Zverev to reach first AO final
“To really break a barrier, one young player has to win a Slam,” he said. “Yeah, one of us is going to be in the finals, but it's still a very long way to go … I think we are still a pretty long way from overtaking or from breaking this kind of barrier.”
With a seven-time champion standing between the 26-year-old and that first major trophy, Thiem rightly treats the clash as the ultimate hurdle at Melbourne Park.
Novak Djokovic is unbeaten in Australian Open finals.
But after a watershed first Slam triumph over world No.1 Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals, to then back it up over an opponent he was expected to beat, Thiem’s time could be nigh.
“He flattens his shot out much more. Before he was a complete clay-court player – a lot of movement, a lot of running around, stuff like that,” Zverev said after his semifinal defeat.
“Now he has a complete hard-court game, which he can play on clay.
“Of course, he still plays the old way. On hard court, he’s a much different and much better player … He's playing the best tennis of his life.
“Yeah, I do believe that he has a chance. I do believe he's playing good enough.”
Looking to become the first player outside the Big Three to win a major since Stan Wawrinka at the 2016 US Open, Thiem would also become only the second man after Wawrinka to break the Big Three’s grip on the Australian Open in 15 years.
The appointment of former Chilean player Nicolas Massu has helped transform the Austrian from a predictable baseliner to a more aggressive all-court competitor.
Massu said Thiem, having appeared in two Grand Slam finals already in Paris, would not be overawed by Sunday’s occasion.
“Every time you play important matches like a final of a Slam, you get more experience,” Massu said.
“It doesn't matter sometimes which Slam because the surface changes, but the experience is that you go on court, you play against the best players in the world. I think he arrives with a lot of confidence.
“It's a big motivation to beat players like Nadal, No.1 in the world, in the centre court in a Slam.
“Always make you so happy because you work for this … Everyone knows that is difficult to play against Nole because he’s [an] unbelievable player. But if Dominic is in the final, is because he deserves it.”
Djokovic leads the pair’s head-to-head 6-4, but Thiem did win their two most recent encounters last year, on an indoor hard court at the ATP Finals and on the slower clay in a Roland Garros semifinal.
The numbers are beginning to stack up well for the Austrian.
He has won six of his past seven matches against top-10 opponents, with his only defeat coming against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the ATP Finals decider.
In the past four years, he is the only man to have beaten Roger Federer on all surfaces, Nadal more than three times on clay and Djokovic more than three times on any surface.
Since 2018 he owns a 3-4 record against Nadal, 3-1 against Djokovic and 3-1 over Federer, and his hard-court credentials are mounting.
Since a first-round defeat at last year’s US Open, the Austrian has won 23 from 29 matches on the surface.
While long heralded as the next great clay-courter, it was Thiem’s breakthrough in winning a hard-court Masters event over Federer at Indian Wells last March that cemented his belief.
“That victory gave me so much relief and so much confidence because finally got my first Masters 1000 title on hard court,” Thiem said.
“Then I think last fall in Asia, then in the indoor season, I made this huge step forward.
“I got more aggressive on hard courts, started to serve smarter and to return better.
“That also gave me a lot of confidence for this new year and for Australia because I told myself if I can be in the finals in London, the ATP Finals, why not as well in a hard-court slam?”
Following his victory over Zverev, Thiem joked on court he always had to face the king of a certain Grand Slam in finals – Nadal twice in Paris, now Djokovic in Melbourne.
These were challenging times for the younger brigade.
“We always have to beat all these unbelievable legends,” Thiem said.
“Of course, Rafa won Paris 12 times, Nole here seven times. That's unbelievable achievement.
“But I try to take my experience what I made in the last two major finals and try to improve myself even more. I think I did that from ’18 to ’19 in Paris, and I tried to improve even more now.
“In this one I have the feeling that I have great experience now. I'm feeling that I can really keep up my level for all the two weeks, which was not the case maybe in my first Roland Garros final.”
Pass that ultimate hurdle at Rod Laver Arena and he becomes the first man born in the ’90s to share the Grand Slam spoils.
Only then will Thiem accept he has truly broken through.