Do qualifiers in the men’s draw at Australian Open 2018 have a real crack at winning the title?
History suggests not, but qualifiers are legitimate wrecking balls in the early rounds. They arrive into the main draw with three wins under their belt, bubbling with confidence, and most importantly, a good feel for the court speed and weather conditions Down Under. Qualifiers didn’t make the main draw because of their lower ranking, but they are some of the most in-form players in the draw.
The two best performing qualifiers at the Australian Open are Bob Giltinan, who reached the semifinals in 1977 (January), and Goran Ivanisevic, who reached the quarterfinals in 1989. Since the Australian Open adopted a 128-man draw in 1988, 10 qualifiers have reached the round of 16 or better, with the most recent being Milos Raonic in 2011.
For the past five years in the men’s draw, qualifiers have done very well against their higher ranked opponents early in the tournament.
Men’s qualifiers winners - first round
2013 = 4
2014 = 7
2015 = 4
2016 = 8
2017 = 7
Men’s qualifiers reaching third round
2013 = 1
2014 = 1
2015 = 0
2016 = 2
2017 = 1
Here’s who the qualifiers in the men’s draw play in round one of the 2018 Australian Open.
Q Casper Ruud (No.138) v Q Quentin Halys (No.134)
Q Salvatore Caruso (No.210) v Malek Jaziri (No.100)
Q Dustin Brown (No.129) v Joao Sousa (No.70)
Q Vasek Pospisil (No.105) v Marin Cilic (No.6)
Q Denis Novak (No.226) v Grigor Dimitrov (No.3)
Q Mackenzie McDonald (No.186) v Q Elias Ymer (No.140)
Q Yuki Bhambri (No.119) v Marcos Baghdatis (No.123)
Q Kevin King (No.214) v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (No.15)
Q Ruben Bemelmans (No.117) v Lucas Pouille (No.18)
Q Denis Kudla (No.190) v Steve Johnson (No.48)
Q Vaclav Safranek (No.225) v Jiri Vesely (No.64)
Q Jaume Munar (No.187) v Gael Monfils (No.39)
Q Matthias Bachinger (No.182) v David Goffin (No.7)
Q Lorenzo Sonego (No.219) v Robin Haase (No.43)
So who is most likely to make a run to the third round? Here’s three dark horses to keep an eye out for.
1. Casper Ruud
He plays another qualifier in the first round in Quentin Halys. If he gets through that he gets the winner of Dusan Lajovic and No.24 seed Diego Schwartzman. The 19-year-old from Norway lost in the last round of qualifying in Melbourne last year.
2. Yuki Bhambri
The 25-year-old from India is actually ranked higher than his opponent Marcos Baghdatis, who used a protected ranking to get in the draw (No.119 to No.123). If he gets through that one, he plays the winner of David Ferrer and No.30 seed Andrey Rublev.
3. Lorenzo Sonego
The 22-year-old Italian defeated Bernard Tomic 6-1 6-7(5) 6-4 in the last round of qualifying to advance to the main draw. He won his opening two qualifying matches in straight sets. He plays Robin Haase in the opening round, and if he gets through that he would face the winner of Blaz Kavcic and No.29 seed Richard Gasquet.
