Jan-Lennard Struff is a giant killer.
In the past two years he has defeated Tomas Berdych, Stan Wawrinka, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Grigor Dimitrov. Ranked just 55 in the world, you probably have not of heard of Struff before.
Let me do the introductions. He is the real deal.
Next up in the 6’5” German’s sights is Roger Federer. That match is the late show on Rod Laver Arena on Thursday night. Fireworks guaranteed.
MORE: All the latest scores and results
The 27 year-old German simply hits through opponents with the typical one-two punch of big serves and scorching forehands. He had 52 per cent (15/29) of his first serves unreturned in his opening round victory against Soonwoo Kwon from Korea. Only Ivo Karlovic (53 per cent) and Sam Querrey (56 per cent) had more serves not come back in the court in the opening round.
Can Struff beat Federer? Oh, yes he can.
They have played once before, with the Swiss maestro winning 6-4, 7-6(3) in the first round of Halle in 2016. Federer never faced a break point in that match, and only lost two points on first serve, winning 33 of 35. The slick grass helped that.
There are three things to look for in this match.
1. Federer backhand returns
Struff will strategically mix his big serves around the service box to try and stay a step ahead in the guessing game of serve location, but when push comes to shove on big points, expect the heat to be directed at Federer’s backhand return.
Here’s how Federer performed with his returns in his opening round 6-3 6-4 6-3 victory over Aljaz Bedene.
Deuce court: Returns IN
Forehand return = 63 per cent (10/16)
Backhand Return = 81 per cent (22/27)
Ad court: Returns IN
Forehand return = 75 per cent (12/16)
Backhand return = 73 per cent (19/26)
Overall, Federer put 69 per cent (22/32) forehand returns in play, and an even more impressive 77 per cent (41/53) backhand returns in. The Federer backhand return looks very, very healthy.
2. Backhands
When the point extends past the first strike segment of the serve and return, both Federer and Struff will be looking to try and match up their forehands to the backhand on the other side of the net.
Federer hit three backhand winners and committed 20 backhand errors (eight forced / 12 unforced) in his opening round. Struff hit four backhand winners and made 18 backhand errors (seven forced / 11 unforced) in his first match. If the backhand blinks, then the pathway to victory gets a lot tougher.
3. The net
Both players will be looking to dine at the net as much as possible to finish points. Struff won 65 per cent (17/26) at net in round one, while Federer was even more adventurous coming forward, winning 72 per cent (26/36).
The best way to come forward is with a forehand approach to the opponent’s backhand, where there is naturally less spin available for the passing shot. Unless the first volley is a sitter, it needs to go back behind instead of open court. The running forehand pass is much easier to pull off.
PREDICTION: Federer in four sets.