The warning signs for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are everywhere.
Unfavourable metrics, below par percentages, and a rampaging opponent who is going to bring around 15,000 raucous friends to the match.
Nick Kyrgios v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Friday night at 7.00pm on a packed Rod Laver Arena. Showtime, to say the least.
Tsonga battled mightily to erase a 2-5, fifth-set deficit against Denis Shapovalov in the previous round just to make this party. He also has a straight sets win over Kevin King to his credit. What got Tsonga to the third round dramatically needs improvement if he is going to get past the 22 year-old Australian.
Here’s four areas where Tsonga will need to lift his game if he has any chance to win this block buster.
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1. Rally length - 0-4 Shots
This high-powered match-up is going to produce a lot of short rallies. 68 per cent of all points at the 2017 Australian Open finished in the first four shots - meaning each player only hits a maximum of two shots each.
Through the first two rounds at Melbourne this year, both Kyrgios and Tsonga are playing 73 per cent of all points in this short rally length. When the dust settles at the end of this match, that number could be as high as three out of every four points. You can win all the long rallies you want - the victor of the short rallies will absolutely be the victor of this match.
Here’s a big problem Tsonga needs to solve. So far his performance in this key battleground is not nearly as good as Kyrgios. The Australian has won 38 more points (150 won/112 lost) than he has lost in rallies with a maximum of four shots. Tsonga is only plus five (186 won / 181 lost).
Advantage Kyrgios.
2. Aces / double faults
The serve is absolutely humming for Kyrgios. He has pumped 33 aces, including four on second serves, and coughed up just four double faults through two rounds. Tsonga’s numbers are not in the same ball park. The Frenchman has only hit 14 aces, and has yielded 12 double faults. Free serve points flow for Kyrgios, while Tsonga has constantly has to work for his.
Advantage Kyrgios.
3. First serves in
The tournament average at Australian Open 2018 for first serves in is 61 per cent. That’s exactly where it normally is, but it’s certainly not anywhere where Tsonga is currently at. The Frenchman has only made 53 per cent (129/244) of first serves, to be ranked a lowly 113th best out 128 players in the draw in this specific metric. Kyrgios is tied for seventh best, making a jaw-dropping 72 per cent (127/176) of his first serves.
Advantage Kyrgios.
4. Second serve points won
Second serves are THE gateway to getting broken. Tsonga averages 190 km/h hitting first serves, but just 155 km/h hitting second serves. The second serve has been a liability for Tsonga so far this tournament, only winning 47 per cent (54/115) of them, which happens to be two percentage points below the tournament average. Tsonga should not be below the tournament average in ANY serve statistic. Kyrgios is at 55 per cent (27/49).
Advantage Kyrgios.
Summary
This is not a battle of backhands, running, or shot tolerance. This will be a serving lollapalooza - a festival of “first strike”. The short will dominate the long. Whoever takes care of the start of the point will be smiling the most at the end of the match.