Too many balls in play. Nobody ever lost from putting too many balls in play.
Caroline Wozniacki defeated Elise Mertens 6-3 7-6(2) by producing outstanding defence on her side of the net that ultimately made her opponent press too much on the other side.
Match report: Wozniacki advances to final
The first three games went to script, with Wozniacki leading 2-1. No games went to deuce, but those 17 points were a springboard for Wozniacki to find her range, figure out her opponent, and identify her primary pattern of play - attack Merten’s forehand out wide.
Mertens was broken serving at 1-2 with not one, not two, not three, but four forehand errors. Wozniacki proved early on that she had a winning strategy to lean on all the way to the finish line.
Overall, Mertens did manage 11 forehand winners, but they were definitely overshadowed by 32 forehand errors. The Belgian had 18 unforced errors to Wozniacki’s six. Many of those 18 were rally balls that Mertens simply tried to do too much with.
While Merten’s forehand was constantly under siege, it was the Wozniacki backhand that proved to be the best shot from the back of the court. Wozniacki amassed 12 backhand winners for the match, while only yielding 13 errors (six forced / seven unforced). The Dane would love to have those numbers again in the final.
This match was always going to be about baseline performance. The question mark was whether Mertens had the shot tolerance to wait for the right ball before pulling the trigger. Unfortunately it didn’t work out that way for her.
Mertens only won 31 per cent (23/75) of points where she was at the baseline when the point ended. Wozniacki was far superior, winning an impressive 59 per cent (48/81) from the back of the court. In the mid-length rallies of 5-8 shots, Wozniacki was twice as good as Mertens, winning that battleground 18 to nine.
The match did get a little sideways near the end, as Wozniacki committed two double faults when serving for match at 6-3 5-4. She was mentally reaching for the finish line. Never reach for the finish line. The first double fault came when serving at 30-15. The second was at 30-40, gifting the break to Mertens.
From being in a position of total dominance, Wozniacki actually had to save two set points in her next service game at 5-6 15-40. She won a six-shot rally then a three-shot rally, endured four deuces, and then pushed the match to a tiebreak where she quickly built an unassailable 3-0 lead before winning it 7-2.
Wozniacki has now won a healthy 54 per cent (291/535) of her baseline points in Melbourne. She is also a very commendable 76 per cent (55/72) points won at net. The backhand is still more dominant than the forehand (42 backhand winners / 36 forehand winners), but who really cares how you finish the point.
