The baseline is a statistical nightmare.
The average win percentage is a losing one. Repeat, losing.
Through the first five days of Australian Open 2018, the average win percentage is 47 per cent (11,963 / 25,584). Any metric under 50 per cent automatically activates the air raid sirens. Trouble on the horizon.
MORE: All the latest scores and results
Roger Federer won the 2017 Australian Open winning just 48 per cent (384/792) of his baseline points. He won seven matches over two weeks and could not get above water from the back of the court. That’s how tough of a place it is to craft an advantage.
At this year’s Open, Federer has not dropped a set and has only won 46 per cent (82/178) of his baseline points.
We think the baseline is a great place to be. A happy place at the Happy Slam. It’s really just a bad dream.
Which brings us to 21 year-old, Hyeon Chung. The Korean has won a staggering 69 per cent (98/143) of his baseline points through the first two rounds. Nobody is within eight percentage points. Chung, then daylight.
Chung plays 20 year-old Alexander Zverev at Rod Laver Arena on a Saturday, in a battle of two emerging “NextGen” stars. Chung won their only meeting so far, defeating the German 6-1, 6-4 in Barcelona last year.
Zverev is going to try and serve his way through Chung, while the Korean is going to do all he can to put those serves back in play and naturally evolve the rally into a baseline exchange, where he has put up dizzying numbers so far in Melbourne.
Zverev has only won 47 per cent (107/226) of his baseline points through the first two rounds, defeating Thomas Fabbiano and Peter Gojowczyk.
Chung defeated Zverev’s older brother, Mischa 6-2, 4-1 RET in the opening round, and pounded Daniil Medvedev 7-6(4), 6-1, 6-1 in the second round. Medvedev is a form player, winning the Sydney International last week. The scoreline suggests the Russian ran out of gas trying to match Chung from the back of the court.
Chung’s baseline prowess starts with his forehand. He has clocked 34 forehand winners through the first two rounds, while adding 10 backhand winners. Overall, the forehand has committed 31 total errors (forced and unforced), and just 29 from the backhand.
Chung moves great, sticks to high percentage baseline patterns, and doesn’t beat himself. The baseline is most certainly his kingdom.
How is Chung going to play Zverev?
By going after the tall German’s forehand. Zverev naturally leans forward and moves into the court when hitting his silky backhand, but tends to lean off the ball too much on the forehand wing. He goes back instead of committing forward. Zverev has 59 errors from the backhand side, and 70 from the forehand, including 40 unforced.
Zverev is ranked much higher (No.4 to No.58). His serve is superior. He may even take the edge backhand to backhand, but not from the forehand side.
Chung is a really tough match-up for Zverev because of the inevitable deuce court baseline exchanges that will be controlled by the Korean.
PREDICTION: Chung in four sets