After a flawless claycourt season, Jannik Sinner enters Roland Garros – the one Grand Slam tournament he is yet to win – as the prohibitive favourite.
On the women's side, meanwhile, there are perhaps 10 or more players who have a legitimate case for being considered a potential title-winner.
We unpack all of this, and more, with our expert panel of Australian tennis stars, and find out who they think will finish with the trophies at the end of fortnight in Paris.
Our experts
Todd Woodbridge: 22-time Grand Slam doubles champion and Olympic gold medallist
Casey Dellacqua: Former world No.26 as well as top-five doubles player
Wally Masur: Former world No.15 who served as Australian Davis Cup captain
Nicole Pratt: Former world No.35 and Australian women’s coach lead
Jannik Sinner swept the three claycourt Masters titles in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome. Since prime Nadal, have we ever had a heavier favourite for the RG title?
WOODBRIDGE: "I think he’s the heaviest favourite for a long time, because I even felt back in the Rafa/Roger days that there was still a chance for Roger to play really well and win, so there was a contender. This would be the first time I can remember in so long that we've gone in with nobody able to contend, on paper at least, against Jannik. You would think at the moment his greatest opponent will be himself, and how he handles that – the stress, pressure, not having lost a match for ages – will be quite extraordinary to watch."
DELLACQUA: "Sinner has to be, by far, the outright favourite. The only few elements that I feel could potentially play a factor are things like the weather; Roland Garros when it's hot, those livelier conditions can make it more favourable for some players that do play well on clay. And you just never know with Slams, over the length of two weeks and best-of-five set tennis. There's certainly lots of other added elements in the men's game that could throw a bit of a curveball, but I think given the form that Sinner's come in and the way that he's been able to serve well lately, it's very hard to pick anyone but Sinner, isn't it?"
MASUR: “I think we can start and finish with Sinner. He's on quite a tear. He's now won all of the Masters 1000 titles, which is a feat that Novak achieved when he was 31, and Sinner has done it at 24. So it's pretty extraordinary what he's achieving. The absence of Alcaraz is really disappointing because the French Open final [last year] was one of the great matches in so many ways. We’ll be robbed of that spectacle. And in the absence of Alcaraz, he is a clear favorite for sure.”
NADAL ON ALCARAZ: “He will recover 100 percent”
PRATT: “With the exception of Rafa, we have to go back a long way to 1978 where Bjorn Borg started to reign supreme, winning four years in a row at RG. The fact that Sinner has won all of the Masters lead-in events puts him as a clear favourite. The only question mark is can his body and mind hold up to another fortnight of testing tennis?”
If anyone can stand up to Sinner and rise to the challenge at Roland Garros, who might it be?
WOODBRIDGE: “The only one who seems to have brought any consistency to that is probably Casper Ruud. Has that ability, has the history [at Roland Garros]. And then in Rome to play well, make a final. But then you get that whole thing of a great champion who doesn't have the firepower in those big matches to win them. But if anything happens to Jannik, he, at the moment, is the second favourite for me.”
DELLACQUA: “Probably Zverev is at the forefront of my mind, given the fact that he's got the ability on serve to hit through the court. He's got one of those serves that can bounce up and off the court. He's obviously had success at Roland Garros before, especially [strong] on clay over the length of five sets. And it's very hard to not put Novak Djokovic; I just always mention Novak because I think for the rest of his career, I feel like he is certainly one to always be in the mix. And then there's a few roughies like Casper Ruud, who's had a couple of good runs there at Roland Garros and a few others, but probably Zverev is the one there that can maybe shake up the men's draw a little bit.”
MASUR: “We can’t discount Zverev. Semis of Monte Carlo and final of Madrid. Casper Ruud, Grand Slam finalist on hardcourt, on clay, very dangerous player. He makes the final of Rome … We know Medvedev doesn't like clay necessarily, prefers hardcourt, but he seems to be resurrecting his career after six months last year. But Sinner handled them all in the lead-up, and he did beat Alcaraz in straight sets in the Monte Carlo final as well. So the gap between him and everybody else just seems too great. I went through the young guys: Jodar, Blockx, Learner Tien, Arthur Fils. These are very, very good young players, huge potential, but I'm just not sure they're ready physically over best-of-five sets to beat someone like Sinner. But they don't have PTSD; they haven't been beaten up too many times yet by Sinner to be completely beaten before they get on the court. Can a young guy shock the tennis world?”
PRATT: “Right now there a few players who could threaten Sinner, but my question mark is: do they truly believe they can beat him? The likes of Zverev have been saying he is a class above, he handled Rudd without any issue in Rome. Right now, the only thing going to stop Sinner is Sinner – meaning overall fatigue or injury.”
Until a few weeks ago, Sabalenka was dominating like Sinner. Yet the women’s field has opened up and there are many strong contenders. What might happen?
WOODBRIDGE: “With Sabalenka’s history, were they the losses [in Madrid and Rome] she needed to have? I think this is that year she will go in thinking: ‘I've been close. I'm not in the best of form. I've had a little niggle’. All that will actually help relieve pressure. And she can go out and kind of do what she's meant to do and win the tournament. And it wouldn't surprise me if she if she gets that done this time. I still think I would love to see Andreeva break through, but I don't know if she's quite ready mentally to take it all the way. What I like about Iga [Swiatek] coming into this tournament is this ability to acknowledge that she's had to go away and work on things… I see that as a bit of a positive for her coming into the tournament that she loved. She's not under pressure as defending champion anymore. And I've always felt at that time, you kind of see a glint and steeliness in her eye at a point in the tournament, where everybody's in trouble. And we'll see early on whether she has that, but I kind of like her for the French.”
DELLACQUA: “I think that Sabalenka in Slams turns into a bit of a different player. I feel like she just ups her game, ups her mentality, and she's definitely playing for the majors now. Coco Gauff for me is always just a bit of a surprise packet, coming in as defending champion and having made the final in Rome. Yes, she lost to Svitolina, but I think given her movement, and ability to move from defense up on the baseline and turn that into attack, she's certainly in the mix as well. And then there's also players like Andreeva, she's in some good form and always a dangerous player. Obviously, Rybakina. And then of course, Swiatek, who's got the best claycourt record of any woman in that draw. There's definitely a lot more breadth of women that could probably take home this Roland Garros title.”
MASUR: “Sabalenka strikes the ball so well and she's such a dominant player, but she's not the kind of mover on clay that she is on hard court. And we saw that in those tricky conditions against Gauff [last year] on a windy, slippery day, she was unsettled. So I don't always look at her on clay as a lay down. I thought maybe it was Swiatek in this particular season on clay, but she hasn't really fired either. Svitolina always seems to be the bridesmaid, never the bride, but wow, she did well in Rome. That's a classy win, to beat Swiatek and Gauff back-to-back to take the title. Andreeva was good in Madrid. Baptiste had a big upset over Sabalenka. Kostyuk wins Madrid. Rybakina I think of more as a grass and hardcourt player, but she did win Stuttgart. I think there's probably eight to ten women that are realistic chances if they play well.”
PRATT: “The women’s field has opened back up again with Sabalenka’s loss in Rome. Names to watch progressing through the draw are, of course, Svitolina off the back of the Rome title. Coco will certainly be riding high from last year’s victory and a solid outing in Rome, making the final. Kostyuk will be coming in fresh after her victory in Madrid. Sabalenka had a slight injury cloud in Rome, and with a few weeks to recover for Roland Garros she’s definitely still a force to lift the trophy after two weeks in Paris.”
It's not traditionally our preferred surface, but which of the Aussies do you think could make a run on the clay in Paris?
WOODBRIDGE: “The whole thing about Aussies doing well is momentum. It's really weird. If you can get off to a good start and get an Aussie win, it permeates through the group. Draws are obviously important. Talia Gibson and Maya Joint are going to be interesting to watch on the women's side. They're the ones that I'm really looking forward to seeing how they do. There's two different stories, though. Maya, obviously, having been injured, not a lot of match wins yet. She's now coming back to a tournament she's been to before. And when she gets going, she can play great tennis. She slides well. She moves well. Just needs to get through a round. Then for Talia, it's going to be a huge moment, probably where Maya sat last year. She's got a huge ball strike. And if it goes on that surface at Roland Garros, when the clay can be quick and she can get through the court, if she can keep her consistency and smart shot making decisions, then she's also up for potentially her best run at a Slam.”
DELLACQUA: “I think we've definitely got a lot of players who have the game style at Roland Garros to do some damage. If you're able to have shape on the ball, and use that kick serve – particularly when the conditions are hot – I think that really helps. So someone like an Alexei Popyrin, I feel like has a really good opportunity if he gets his game going, and particularly with his serve-plus-one on forehand, he could do really well. Obviously, Alex De Minaur is our best chance if we're looking on ranking. The thing with Alex is just that consistency of putting yourself in those [quarterfinal] stages of tournaments… if Alex just continues to push through and get to the back end of tournaments, you don't actually know what could happen. And then on the women's side, I think Kasatkina has a great game and I think very well suited for clay. And I'm really keen to see some of the younger Aussies get out there and give it a crack at Roland Garros as well.”
MASUR: “Demon certainly knows how to play, certainly knows how to move on clay, no question about it. Conditions would be important for Demon, probably wants it a bit livelier. Alexei Popyrin is absolutely no slouch on clay. You've got to be able to generate pace, and Aleks Vukic can generate pace off that forehand wing. If Kasatkina is fit and happy, there's no reason why she can't play well on clay. She's been No.8 in the world, and has good results on clay. And then, I guess, we turn towards that young brigade. Talia Gibson, who ran hot on the hard court – how does she move on clay? How does she cope with the variable bounce? And Maya Joint, who’s been a little injured and struggling a bit, on the back of that injury. So maybe they're the two to watch on the women's side.”
PRATT: “It was great to see Daria Kastakina having a nice run in Strasbourg this week. Her form has not been great this year but clay is her best surface so I expect her to make the second week. On the men’s side, there is a reason De Minaur is top 10 in the world; if conditions quicken up in Paris with warm weather then he certainly could be in the second week as well.”
Who will win the men’s and women’s singles titles?
WOODBRIDGE: “Sinner and Swiatek.”
DELLACQUA: “Sinner, and I think I’m gonna go Iga. I feel like she’s maybe due. I know she’s had a fair few changes over the last few months, but she’s obviously won four titles there before. Great claycourt record. We’ll see if she can play seven matches together and win, but I'll go with Iga.”
MASUR: “Sinner, and – with a caveat – Gauff. She’ll walk through those gates and there’s a lot of good memories. She's a tremendous athlete. She's also quick and we know she makes a lot of balls. We know there are days where things can go a little astray, but she never fights herself. She always takes her opponent on and gives a great account of herself. She's a really, really good competitor.”
PRATT: “Sinner for the men’s title and Sabalenka for the women’s – provided both are healthy.”