Until a few weeks ago, Aryna Sabalenka was tracking similarly to dominant men’s world No.1 Jannik Sinner.
She too completed the Sunshine Double, then powered into the Madrid Open quarterfinals, losing only one set along the way.
After falling in the AO 2026 final to Elena Rybakina, she hadn’t been defeated since.
But suddenly, she hit a snag in the form of Hailey Baptiste, who saved six match points to end Sabalenka’s 15-match winning streak. Then Sabalenka ran into a surging Sorana Cirstea in Rome, a loss exacerbated by a back injury.
Entering Roland Garros, the women’s field suddenly looks a whole lot more open and even. Sabalenka remains the world No.1 and the best performer at the Slams, but she has plenty of co-favourites.
Rybakina is the most recent major winner and sits at a career-high ranking of No.2. Iga Swiatek has the best Roland Garros record of any woman in the field. Rome finalist Coco Gauff is the defending champion.
Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina won the two biggest claycourt titles leading in, yet Mirra Andreeva earned the most points overall during the 2026 clay season.
> CHECK OUT OUR NEW SUBSTACK... Where we covered Svitolina's Rome triumph
Top-10 stars Jessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova, both Grand Slam finalists, have recently won big titles – and Pegula’s came on the clay of Charleston.
With so many players in contention, we analyse their chances as the countdown to Roland Garros continues.
Aryna Sabalenka
The last time Sabalenka fell before the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam? Four years ago, at Roland Garros in 2022. In fact, Sabalenka has reached the semifinals or better at 12 of her past 13 Slams, and the final at four of her past five.
One of those was at Roland Garros last year, where she came within a set of her first major title off hard courts before Gauff upstaged her in three.
“With Sabalenka’s history, it's actually a pressure-valve [release] moment that she's had to the lead-in of Roland Garros,” observed Todd Woodbridge, a 22-time major doubles champion.
“I think this is that year where she will go in thinking, ‘I've been close. I'm not in the best of form. I've had a little niggle’. All that will actually help relieve pressure. And she can go out and kind of do what she's meant to do and win the tournament.
“It wouldn't surprise me if she gets that done this time. She's been close. And I think to her credit, she is one of the most resilient players. There are many players that could have come along and faltered like she has and reached their peak there. She’s come back each time and slowly got better. She's improved her game, technique and mentality. She still stumbles, but I believe those stumbles have made her even tougher.
“I think she's got a better chance this year because of what's happened in the last month or so.”
Elena Rybakina
One of the in-form players this season, Rybakina has won 30 of her 37 matches and followed up her Australian Open title with a second on clay in Stuttgart.
She also looked strong on Roman clay, losing just 14 games as she cruised into the quarterfinals before encountering an inspired Svitolina.
Rybakina is yet to pass the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, but it’s a stage she’s already reached twice, and nearly did so for the third time last year when she led Swiatek by a set and a break in the fourth round.
Despite her Slam success coming on hard courts and grass, Rybakina’s power, consistency and ever-improving movement translate well to all surfaces, shown in her 9-2 winning record on clay this year.
She has a success rate of almost 75 per cent on clay throughout her career, better than any other surface.
Iga Swiatek
Swiatek came within two wins of an historic four-peat in Paris last year, which would have made her the first woman in more than 100 years to win four straight French titles.
She’d won three straight from 2022 to 2024 and also claimed her first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros in 2020, meaning she’s won the tournament four times in her last six visits.
Swiatek is already one of the game’s all-time greats on clay, and last week showed signs of her dominant best on the surface by reaching the Rome semifinals.
“What I like about Iga coming into this tournament is this ability to acknowledge that she's had to go away and work on things,” Woodbridge noted of Swiatek, who has recently linked up with Rafael Nadal’s former coach Francisco Roig.
“Iga is I think kind of new in seeking out new information and trying to get better and making some changes. I see that as a bit of a positive for her coming into the tournament that she loves.
“She's not under pressure as defending champion anymore. And I've always felt you kind of see a glint and steeliness in her eye at a point in the tournament, where everybody's in trouble. And we'll see early on whether she has that, but I kind of like her for the French.”
Coco Gauff
Just like last year, Gauff enters Roland Garros having made the Rome final, a sign she’s finding her footing on her favourite surface.
Gauff’s two previous major titles – US Open 2023, Roland Garros 2025 – followed strong lead-up form, which bodes well as the 22-year-old targets more Grand Slam silverware.
The world No.4’s game, built around athleticism, variety and grittiness, is a perfect fit for clay; she’s reached at least the quarterfinals in her past five Roland Garros campaigns.
“She comes in as defending champion and having made the final in Rome. Yes, she lost to Svitolina [in Rome], but I think given her movement and her ability to defend on the clay courts and then move from defense up on the baseline and turn that into attack, [she’s dangerous],” former top-30 player Casey Dellacqua told ausopen.com.
“That's what she did so well last year at Roland Garros. I think that she's certainly in the mix as well.”
Jessica Pegula
While Pegula might not be at her most dangerous on clay, the American has reached the semifinals at her last two Slams and is enjoying a stellar season.
She’s 28-6 this year, and has only lost to three players – Rybakina, Swiatek and Kostyuk.
A quarterfinalist at Roland Garros in 2022, Pegula has built a 9-2 record on clay this year, helped by defending her title at the WTA 500 green clay tournament in Charleston.
Her most recent outing was a quarterfinal in Rome, where she was stopped by a rampant Swiatek.
Elina Svitolina
It was Svitolina who ultimately prevailed in the Italian capital, completing one of the finest tournament runs in recent years.
She beat Rybakina, Swiatek and Gauff in succession – all top-four players – to win her first WTA 1000 title in eight years, and is playing with enormous confidence.
An Australian Open semifinalist and Dubai finalist earlier this season, Svitolina is No.3 in the Race to the WTA Finals and boasts a win-loss record of 29-7 in 2026.
Five times a quarterfinalist at Roland Garros, the Ukrainian star will attempt to surpass that barrier for the first time at age 31.
In her past three campaigns in Paris, it’s taken Swiatek, Rybakina and Sabalenka to stop her.
“Svitolina always seems to be the bridesmaid, never the bride,” observed former world No.15 Wally Masur. “But wow, she did well in Rome. That's a classy win, to beat Swiatek and then Gauff back-to-back to take the title.”
Mirra Andreeva
The teen superstar has earned more points on clay during 2026 than any other woman on tour.
Andreeva’s haul came thanks to the 500-level title in Linz, a semifinal in Stuttgart, a final in Madrid and a quarterfinal finish in Rome, giving her a 15-3 record on clay this season.
After reaching the Roland Garros semifinals in 2024, the 18-year-old returned to the quarters in Paris last year and is shaping as one of the biggest threats for the 2026 trophy.
Her blend of power and counterpunching, and ability to cleverly construct points, translate well to the Roland Garros, where she’s won more matches and owns the highest winning percentage of any of the four Slams.
Karolina Muchova
It’s hard to predict what the oft-injured Czech might do, but the signs are good following a sizzling start to 2026.
This week, Muchova returned to the top 10 for the first time since February 2024, and she’s won 22 of her 28 matches so far this year.
Her high point of 2026 came with a WTA 1000 title in Doha, her first tournament title in seven years. More recently she progressed to the final in Stuttgart, on clay, notching wins over Gauff and Svitolina along the way.
In 2023, she stared down a match point to beat Sabalenka in the Roland Garros semis, then pushed Swiatek to the limit in the final, falling 6-4 in the third.
With her penchant for beating the best players on the biggest stages, she’ll be dangerous if she’s healthy in Paris.
Marta Kostyuk
At a career-high ranking of world No.15, Kostyuk is the only woman this year to win multiple claycourt titles.
Her victory at the WTA 250 event in Rouen was followed by the biggest of her career in Madrid, a WTA 1000 trophy.
After beating Andreeva in the final – one of three top-15 players she defeated en route to the title – Kostyuk celebrated her breakthrough with an acrobatic backflip.
She hasn’t played since then, yet Kostyuk enters Roland Garros on a 12-match winning streak.
Her best result in Paris was a run to the fourth round in 2021.