Elena Rybakina has done well to sneak so quietly under the radar this Australian Open, but after scuttling world No.2 Iga Swiatek’s hopes in the quarterfinals on Wednesday, she has sounded a warning loud and clear.
The 26-year-old emphatically entered the chat in discussions of title favouritism following a dominant 7-5 6-1 victory at Rod Laver Arena.
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The Kazakhstani fifth seed foiled the Pole’s 2026 bid for the career Grand Slam – her sustained power and precision decisive in the 93-minute showdown.
Unbeaten at last year’s WTA Finals, this was her eighth straight top-10 win.
“We know each other pretty well and I was just trying to stay aggressive,” Rybakina said.
“I feel like in the first set for both of us, the first serve was not really working, so we tried to step in on the second serve, put pressure on each other, and I think in the second I just started to play more free, serve better. I'm just really happy with the win.”
The only other time Rybakina won an Australian Open quarterfinal she went on to face Aryna Sabalenka in one of highest-quality Grand Slam finals of the modern era.
That run included successive victories over Danielle Collins, Swiatek, Jelena Ostapenko and Victoria Azarenka.
“I don't remember exactly how I was starting in 2023, the tournament," Rybakina said. "I think it was, by the score, more difficult rounds, but I feel this time I maybe didn't start that good, the matches, in terms of feeling the shots and all this stuff, but I was still managing to win in straight sets.”
“Physically, I feel well now. It's tough to compare, but definitely on this tournament I played each match a little bit better.”
The youngest player to make six successive major quarterfinals since Serena Williams at Wimbledon 2003, Swiatek knew she had to take the initiative early in points to help keep the ball out of the big-swinging Kazakhstani’s strike range.
Early breaks were traded as the pair took time to settle into their 12th career meeting, with Swiatek having claimed six of those.
Rybakina though prevailed in their most recent meeting at the WTA Finals and won their only prior Australian Open showdown – in the fourth round three years ago – en-route to her second major final.
The directive from Rybakina’s team early was clear: “You have to be more aggressive on her second serve.”
In her fifth straight tour-level quarterfinal, this was easier said than done against a six-time Grand Slam champion, but after inching ahead 6-5 on back-to-back aces and a blistering backhand winner, she stepped it up a notch.
After a shaky forehand thumped wide handed her opponent a set point, Swiatek reasserted herself with a savagely whipped forehand winner, but a backhand miss two points later surrendered the set after an hour.
While never one to show too much emotion, after a tense opening set in the bag, Rybakina somehow appeared to cut an even more composed figure.
Upon further instructions to “relax the shoulders”, she did just that to reel off back-to-back groundstroke winners for the early break.
Despite a scare on serve at 3-1, she tightened her grip and steamrolled through the last three games.
An 11th ace – one of 26 winners for the match – sealed her fourth Grand Slam semifinal berth and a clash against fourth seed Amanda Anisimova or sixth seed Jessica Pegula.
Having landed just 49 per cent of first serves in this contest, it sent a message to the rest of the field – her best could be still to come.
“Really happy with the last two matches. It's a bit challenging with the sun, but I’m finding a way,” she said. “For now, the serve is really helping, so hopefully I can continue like this.”