The greatest threat to an Alcaraz-Sinner final at Australian Open 2026 may be coming from outside the top 10.
MORE: All the scores from Day 2 at AO 2026
When you consider Daniil Medvedev’s Australian Open chops – a finalist in 2021, ’22 and ’24 – and a late-season flourish he carried through to a title-winning week in Brisbane, as well as the mighty manner in which he fought off a valiant Jesper de Jong on Monday, the former world No.1 looms as a genuine dark horse at Melbourne Park.
Medvedev was back to his deep-court best at Margaret Court Arena, constructing each point with patience and precision and, most importantly, moving freely from side to side with a wingspan like no other.
Medvedev’s 47th winner of the day was his best, smacking a powerful forehand strike at the bottom of the court to cap the match 7-5 6-2 7-6(2).
“When I play good, I am aggressive. When I play bad, my ball is not going through the air, so I become a bit more defensive,” he said after the match, his victory coming in two hours and 43 minutes.
“[De Jong] was also far behind the baseline, and there were many times I managed to move him around … in some moments, I could have been a bit more clinical, but in the first round, it’s never easy. Hopefully, I can be a bit more clinical in the next round.”
The win is Medvedev’s first at a major in over a year, having lost in the second round of AO 25 and the first rounds of the other three Grand Slams.
Medvedev brought in AO 2002 champion Thomas Johansson and Rohan Goetzke as new coaches following a disappointing early exit at the US Open. Since then, he’s been on a tear, reaching quarterfinals in six out of his past seven tournaments, as well as two ATP 250 titles.
“Last year was tough. I'm feeling great with my new team, so I don't really go too much into the past,” he said.
“What happened last year happened, and it's okay. It's part of a career, part of life. I managed to finish the year [ranked] like 12 or 13, which is, to be honest, great for many players.”
Undefeated in Australia to start 2026, Medvedev has 56 career wins at Melbourne Park, which is second only to Novak Djokovic (66) in the last 10 years.
Should he continue his strong run of form, Medvedev will be on track to face Alexander Zvevev in the quarterfinals and Sinner in the semifinals.
MORE: AO 2026 men's singles draw
“Out of 10 matches, you can win some, I'm not going to say a number, but you can win,” he said about the possibility of running into Sinner and Alcaraz.
“They can have a bit of an off day. I did beat both of them in Grand Slams in different tournaments.”
Medvedev’s second-round opponent is Quentin Halys, the Frenchman a straight-sets winner over Chile's Alejandro Tabilo on Monday.
Injury accounts for Auger-Aliassime
While Medvedev marched on, Monday was less kind to seventh seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, who retired after the third set of his first-round match against Nuno Borges with severe cramping in his left leg.
The pain began to feel debilitating in the third set, the Canadian opting to make a tough decision instead of playing out the match while hampered, Borges advancing 3-6 6-4 6-4 (ret.).
“I don't have all the answers now. I'm trying to be very professional at everything I do, prepare well … It wasn't happening in the past, so I'll have to figure it out,” Auger-Aliassime said.
“I just knew it wasn't heading in the right direction. I don't like to be on the court that way.
“I want to be on the court winning. I want to be on the court competing with my opponent. I don't want to be just standing there, you know, like a punching bag. So there's no point, and you know to move on.”
The Canadian’s 2026 Australian summer was one to forget, Auger-Aliassime dealing with illness throughout the United Cup.
Borges, whose level stayed high throughout the two-hour, nine-minute match, will meet wildcard Jordan Thompson in the second round after the Australian defeated Argentina’s Juan Manuel Cerundolo in four sets.
Rublev rolls on
Andrey Rublev’s AO 2025 first-round clash with teenage sensation Joao Fonseca was one no seeded player would have wished for. His 2026 campaign in Melbourne began far more smoothly on Monday, Rublev easing past Matteo Arnaldi 6-4 6-2 6-3.
Rublev's 36 winners doubled his opponent's tally, and he did not drop his serve once throughout the match.
“I’m not thinking where my level is, I just take it round by round,” Rublev said, having reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open in 2021, 2023 and 2024.
“I’m just trying to work and improve. I like how I’m playing.”
Rublev plays Jaime Faria in the second round, the Portuguese qualifier ousting Belgian lucky loser Alexander Blockx in four sets.
In other men’s singles action, 26th seed Learner Tien played his third five-setter in four matches at the Australian Open, outlasting American compatriot Marcos Giron 7-6(2) 4-6 3-6 7-6(3) 6-2.
AO 2014 champion Stan Wawrinka also advanced in his last Melbourne Park campaign, the 40-year-old defeating Serbia’s Laslo Djere 5-7 6-3 6-4 7-6(4).