Australian Open 2026 is upon us, and we’re back with the latest edition of Expert Picks to unpack all the exciting storylines setting the stage for the year’s first Grand Slam event.
There’s no shortage of those this year at Melbourne Park, where Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek are chasing the career Grand Slam, and Jannik Sinner could become just the second player in the Open era to win three AO men’s singles titles in a row.
In-form Aryna Sabalenka is hunting a third AO title in four visits to Melbourne Park to cement her stranglehold on the world No.1 ranking, while holding off a host of challengers including Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova, Elena Rybakina and defending champ Madison Keys.
The enduring Novak Djokovic chases more history at Rod Laver Arena, while Alex de Minaur carries home hopes, targeting a major semifinal at his most cherished event.
We’ve asked our experts how it all might play out over the next fortnight.
Our experts
Sam Stosur: 2011 US Open champion and now Australian Billie Jean King Cup captain
Todd Woodbridge: 22-time Grand Slam doubles champion and Olympic gold medallist
Casey Dellacqua: Former world No.26 as well as top-five doubles player
Wally Masur: Former world No.15 who served as Australian Davis Cup captain
Nicole Pratt: Former world No.35 and Australian women’s coach lead
Alcaraz and Sinner are prohibitive favourites to make it through to the final. If anyone can stop that happening, who might it be?
STOSUR: “Jordan Smith (laughter). Oh look, I think you'd be a pretty brave person to not think that those two are gonna get through, but you know, sport isn't scripted so you gotta still give any opponent a bit of a shot really. [But] I would think it's gonna be those two. I think their consistency through these big tournaments is just better than the other guys, If anything, Sinner is just [constantly] at an extraordinary level, whereas Alcaraz, in the earlier rounds, still maybe that little more vulnerable to losing a set here or there, or being not quite as locked in. But I feel like the longer he goes in the tournament… he gets better as it gets later.”
WOODBRIDGE: “It's a hard one to pick because I don't see a standout at the start of the season that's willing or able. Fritz is somebody who's close, but he comes in with a bit of a niggle and that will be hard to see him through. Zverev didn't have the greatest run in Sydney, so his form is a little under. Ruud was 50-50 out of the United Cup. Who else is there? The Italians, Musetti and Cobolli – probably not. It would seem to me the others have a long way to go to lift to the level that these two are at, even what we've seen in practice. So at the moment, I don't see that happening.”
DELLACQUA: “Probably like a lot of fellow pundits out there, we're all on the same page that there's lots of disruptors in the draw that could potentially, on any given day, come out with a performance that just blows our socks off. We've seen that in the past. So whether that be a Zverev, or a Demon perhaps, or Ben Shelton who's just a bit of a floater in the draw that's explosive and can bring his A-game over the length of five sets. But it's very, very hard to go past Sinner and Alcaraz as the two favorites to go through to the final. They're just ahead of the game in terms of physicality and the relentlessness of what they produce over the length of five sets of tennis.”
RELATED: Will a third player emerge to challenge Alcaraz and Sinner?
MASUR: “I just find it difficult that someone, all things being equal, can just step out and beat them over five right now. As it stands, I guess the question marks are over Alcaraz. This has not been his best Slam. I think the best he's done is quarters. So what has he done differently over the off season in terms of preparation or mindset or physical work? I saw Alcaraz playing Demon; I was courtside for that match in the exhibition. He was absolutely on fire. So you asked me who can beat them: does it take a 38-degree day where it's windy? Does it take an accumulation of a couple of tough matches to beat them? We know there's some players in great form – Auger-Aliassime, Mensik, Bublik, Hurkacz. You're better off playing them in the first round than the fourth… [But] it's hard to see anybody stopping that final.”
PRATT: “It's hard to see anything other than a two-horse race, to be perfectly honest. I mean, those guys have just been a head above everyone when it comes to the tournaments that matter. A guy like Zverev, he's always dangerous as well once he gets his teeth into a few matches, but he had a couple interesting losses at the start of the year that you wouldn't have expected. But for me, they [Alcaraz and Sinner] are the two guys to beat at the Australian Open. The only question mark a little bit would be on Alcaraz, in the fact that he's not working anymore with Ferrero - that'll be an interesting piece because there have been some really pivotal moments in matches where he's looked up to the box and Juan Carlos has been that calming, reassuring voice.”
If Alcaraz and Sinner do face off in the final, who’s the favourite?
STOSUR: “Well, you'd have to probably say Sinner on this court, I mean, given he's won here before, Alcaraz hasn't – it's the only one [Slam] that Carlos hasn’t won. I'd probably back Sinner. Just again, being two-time defending champ and all that; it’s a pretty good thing to have in your back pocket, for sure.”
WOODBRIDGE: “Well, I think the favourite here is Sinner, having won it twice. I think the pace of court and the bounce height on this court seems to suit his ability to lean into the ball. He really just loves the feel of, the timing of, the bounce and that height. What I've seen from when Alcaraz played De Minaur in their charity match, I mean, Alcaraz was in the best form I've seen him play here in Australia. He looked really, really sharp, but I still think that the history of their own performances at the AO lends itself to Sinner.”
DELLACQUA: “I think Sinner will win if it gets to finals day and they're both there, purely just because of a little bit of uncertainty around Alcaraz in terms of pre-tournament, now his coaching team has changed. Sinner’s obviously got Darren [Cahill] in his corner, he’s got a real stable team. Seems like he's had a great off season. He's been practising well. So I'm going to go with Sinner.”
MASUR: “I'm going to paraphrase Rafa, because I agree with Rafa on a lot of things. He was talking about the US Open final and he said [Alcaraz and Sinner are] so evenly matched and they're both so great. But he said Carlos just has that little bit more ‘magic’. He used that word magic. Just that little bit more creativity, just that little bit more unpredictability, the ability to just do something incredibly dynamic at a given moment. Whereas Jannik just plays at this very, very high level for long periods of time. He just keeps coming – although he is adding things to his game. But I would probably say Alcaraz, for the reason that Rafa mentioned.”
PRATT: “I think Sinner for the reason that, over time we know this, the courts get quicker. The more play on the courts, the quicker they get. And so by the time you get to the end of, not just the fortnight, but the amount of play that's happening out on Rod Laver Arena in AO Opening Week, I think it's gonna speed it up. I like the fact that Sinner hits a bigger, flatter ball. Carlos needs time. He loves the physicality of it, but he needs a little bit of time as well with the amount of spin that he puts on the ball. So yeah, my pick would be Sinner.”
Aryna Sabalenka is the world No.1, won in Brisbane last week, and is targeting a fourth straight AO final. Is she the women’s favourite?
STOSUR: “Yeah, I think so. I mean, she was pretty good in Brisbane. Very dominant. And I think coming here, she obviously loves playing here. Doing what she's done the last few years is pretty phenomenal. So, yeah, I would say she's probably favorite going into it again. I mean, Maddie Keys is obviously the defending champ, so you don't want to not put her in the mix again.”
WOODBRIDGE: “Yes, I think she is. She, again, is somebody who has played her best tennis on this particular surface. The speed of the court, the pace, and the balance once again really suit her.”
DELLACQUA: “Sabalenka is a clear favorite, probably more so than even other times when she's come in with maybe not as good form, but in terms of everything you've just said, she's the clear favorite for me and I think she's going to be pretty hard to beat. I think in the women's draw there's a bit more depth in terms of those ones that are just behind [Sabalenka at No.1]. So Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, and those type of players are certainly well-versed in winning majors too. But I think here in Australia, and given her form, Sabalenka is the favourite.”
MASUR: “You'd probably say she's the favourite. And I think there's always that little question mark at the AO if someone doesn't really play a lead-in event, but she looked pretty good at Brisbane.”
PRATT: “She went back-to-back [in 2023 and 2024] and then a final, she's well placed after winning Brisbane in terms of matches under her belt. She's just so in tune at the moment and especially like her whole team, it's been a very consistent team over time. I saw that she brought in Max Mirnyi, who I would say is trying to assist [her] probably in the forecourt with transition, getting her more comfortable with volleying… her ability maybe sometimes to sneak in could be a little more of an evolution in her game. She added the drop shot as well. She's gonna be tough to beat.”
As well as Sabalenka, many other top women seem to be hitting form. Who’s impressed you most during the Summer of Tennis?
STOSUR: “I feel like Amanda [Anisimova], I think she can [have a good run]. I feel obviously the last six months [for her] has been incredible; her ball, when it's coming through… I watched her play Kim [Birrell] in Brisbane – incredible level. So again, she's the only one I've watched live out of all those players so far in the last couple of weeks. I think she's gonna have another good year and I don't see why that wouldn't continue here [in Melbourne] this week.”
WOODBRIDGE: “I thought Iga Swiatek's form was actually quite good, but she still seems a little uptight and I think it will probably be weighing on her mind whether she's able to get the Australian Open and have won all four [majors]. I think that's gonna be a great story to watch though, and just really for me, it's about how she handles her emotions in the tournament. In terms of anyone else, I mean, Belinda Bencic was the star player, from all of the other events leading into the AO. She's still the best player in the world really to not have won a major, and it would be very nice to see her win one here.”
DELLACQUA: “Well I mentioned Coco and Iga, certainly two of the players that Aryna would be worried playing, particularly at the back end of any tournament. But I think two players probably: Anisimova has impressed me with her form and we know the type of tennis she can play. She knows how to make major finals, too; she's been there and done it before. And the other one was Madison Keys – when you come back to an event where you have won, I do think that brings something extra out in you as well. And she's gonna have great memories of being a defending champion.”
MASUR: “Anisimova, what a great effort last year after that Wimbledon final to repeat at the US Open and handle the occasion a whole lot better. I saw Rybakina play Paolini in an exhibition here. Pretty crisp. Those two, they’re the type of players, just that awesome power [to trouble Sabalenka]. Bencic was playing really well and it was interesting watching her; she was really striking the ball well in Sydney at the United Cup. And we haven't mentioned Swiatek, who's an awesome player.”
PRATT: “You can't discount the likes of Rybakina. On this particular surface; she loves the hard court. If she's serving well, finds that rhythm, she's tough to beat. And then I absolutely love Anisimova. I really think she's the real deal. She's getting closer and closer, she's enjoying her tennis again; I was really impressed with her at the US Open. For me they're probably the top three [along with Sabalenka].”
Leading Aussie Alex de Minaur would “love nothing more than a deep run” at AO 2026. How far can he go?
STOSUR: “I mean, I think at least fourth round quarters. Why not? Like you said, he's seeded to be there. He's there [at the top] because he deserves to be there… We can never discount him [at the back end of a major]; I think you do that [make multiple quarterfinals] consistently, you give yourself every chance to then have that extra breakthrough. Whether or not that's here, who knows? But if he can have a run like that into the second week, then obviously the crowd's gonna be with him and that’s gonna be phenomenal. I really like watching Alex play because you know you're gonna get someone who's gonna fight and run and play however he can to do his best on that given day – no matter what he might have, he's gonna give it everything. Obviously I'd love to see him get to the semis, and then from there, who knows?”
WOODBRIDGE: “Well, the draw wasn't kind at all. He's got obviously Berrettini, Bublik’s in the section, and Alcaraz in the quarters – three players that have given him trouble all through his career. So he'd have to get through those three to get to a semi. So I think the quarters is probably looking the most likely, but if he got to the quarters, I think that that would be an excellent result.”
DELLACQUA: “I think he has the potential to go the whole way, to be honest. But it's not as easy as that, is it? there's like obviously a lot of variables, whether that be draw, we know that he could potentially face Carlos in the quarterfinals. And that quarterfinal stage has become a little bit of a spot for Alex to get past. But I keep referencing how hard it is to consistently make quarterfinals at Slams, and Alex has been able to do that and he will get his chance. When you consistently put yourself in quarterfinals of majors, it's gonna happen for him at some point. So I think he's just in the best position now to be able to go as far as he can. So let's see what it brings.”
MASUR: “Oh, Demon's got a shocking draw … [but] I think he'll beat Berrettini. I think he's playing too well not to. And Berrettini’s not quite the player he was. The trouble for Demon is like: Berrettini, possibly Tiafoe third round. I think he could beat Tiafoe, but they all take a bit more out of you than you would like in that first week. To then play [potentially] Bublik, to then play Alcaraz. That looks like a crappy draw to me. You can’t say Demon's the favourite to beat Alcaraz, but he can certainly beat all those other guys. But it's a pretty physical road to the quarterfinals for the Demon.”
PRATT: “I've just heard that the draw hasn't done him any favours. [Berrettini] first up, like rough. He's gonna have to be on. Berrettini’s obviously coming back from injury, but geez, that's a tough first round. But you know what? Alex, to a certain degree, he loves to tough out matches too, and he gains his confidence from there. He was impressive at the United Cup, the way that he recovered from that loss to Ruud. So he's had enough time on court. His pre-season was excellent. Got in a lot of court time. He's become a little bit stronger. He is such an unbelievable guy and I only wish, for all of Australia, that we see him in at least a quarter final. Wouldn't it be great to see him in a semifinal?”