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Why Novak Djokovic will win Australian Open 2026

  • Matt Trollope

No player knows what it takes to succeed at Melbourne Park more than Novak Djokovic.

His 10 Australian Open men’s singles titles stand as an all-time record for men – and an Open-era record for any player – and he has won a heady 91 per cent of his AO matches.

Should he notch one more at Australian Open 2026, he’ll own 100 match wins at the tournament. 

Almost any time the superstar Serb steps on court now, there’s awe-inspiring history on the line. It will be no different when he begins his 21st Australian Open campaign in January.

MORE - Rosewall on Djokovic Slam haul: “Another one wouldn’t hurt”

There’s the chance to equal Margaret Court’s all-time record of 11 Australian singles titles, and hoist an all-time record 25th major singles trophy. If that happens, he would become the oldest man in the Open era to win a Grand Slam singles title – a record that has stood for more than half-a-century.

But will he do it at AO 2026?

To consider that question, we must recognise the two competing realities with which Djokovic currently contends.

The first is that his playing level remains extremely high, especially impressive considering he is now 38 years old and has thrived on the professional tour for more than 20 years.

The second is that the world’s top two, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, are playing at an even higher level, and together they’ve collected the past eight major titles.

Djokovic himself acknowledged the difficulty of contending with his younger rivals at this stage of his career.

“I lost three out of four Slams in semis against these guys [in 2025], so they're just too good, playing on a really high level,” Djokovic said following his 6-4 7-6(4) 6-2 semifinal loss to Alcaraz in New York. “I think I had enough energy to battle him and to keep up with his rhythm for two sets. After that I was gassed out, and he kept going.

“That's kind of what I felt this year also with Jannik [at Roland Garros and Wimbledon]. Yeah, best-of-five makes it very, very difficult for me to play them. Particularly if it's like the end stages of the Grand Slam.”

For Djokovic, it’s an issue of physicality more than tennis level. Yet despite his veteran status, physicality was rarely an issue unless it was either Sinner or Alcaraz up the other end of the court.

In March, Djokovic advanced to the Miami Open final – his 60th at Masters level – without losing a set. At Roland Garros, he dropped just one set, against third-ranked Alexander Zverev, en route to the semifinals. Although he lost more sets along the way at Wimbledon and the US Open, he was not extended to five in any of those wins.

The level of tennis is indeed there, and for much of 2025 it was exceptionally good.

In addition to reaching all four Slam semifinals – making him the oldest man in the Open era to achieve that feat – Djokovic also collected two more ATP singles titles, scored three top-five wins, and will enter AO 2026 having won 27 of his past 31 matches.

The last of those wins came in his final match of 2025, an epic three-hour triumph in the Athens final over then-world No.9 Lorenzo Musetti, the fourth top-10 victory of Djokovic’s season.

“You are proving, still at your age, that you can kick us, like me today,” Musetti told Djokovic. “Every time I share the court with you, I take it as a lesson.”

It’s further proof Djokovic possesses the playing level, results and momentum to be a serious title threat at AO 2026, even in the ‘Sincaraz’ age.

While Sinner has won their past five meetings, Djokovic has had more consistent success against Alcaraz, winning four of their most recent six matches.

The most resonant of those was his pulsating four-set win over the Spaniard in the AO 2025 quarterfinals. While the physical exertion of that effort forced him to retire during his semifinal clash with Zverev, it was a reminder of what Djokovic can still produce on the game’s biggest stages.

It’s also true that Sinner and Alcaraz cannot continue winning every major. At some point, their uninterrupted reign will end, just as it did for the greatest Grand Slam men’s duopoly of the Open era: Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

Federer and Nadal, at their combined peak, collected 11 consecutive major titles from Roland Garros in 2005 to the 2007 US Open.

The player to snap that great streak? Djokovic, at Australian Open 2008.

“I'm not giving up on Grand Slams,” said Djokovic, also the last player not named Sinner or Alcaraz to win a major title with his 2023 US Open triumph. “I'm going to continue fighting and trying to get to the finals and fight for another trophy at least. But it's going to be a very difficult task. [in the best-of-five format against Sinner and Alcaraz].

“I still enjoy the thrill of competition. [Against Alcaraz at the US Open] I received amazing support again on the court from the crowd. I thoroughly enjoyed myself.

“That's one of the biggest reasons why I keep on going.”