A match-up one point away from being realised at Australian Open 2025 is now finally set to take centre stage in Paris.
World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka will face three-time defending champion Iga Swiatek for a place in the Roland Garros final after both passed tough quarterfinal tests in straight sets on Tuesday.
It will be the first Grand Slam meeting between the rivals since the 2022 US Open semifinals almost three years ago – their one and only meeting at a major tournament, until now.
"It feels like the first since they have become the 'Big Two' of the WTA,” said Catherine Whitaker on The Tennis Podcast.
"I know it has, at times, been a Big Three, maybe even a Big Four… but let's face it, in terms of the last three years of WTA tennis, it's been those two. Those have been the mainstays at the top and they have been dancing around one another at the Grand Slams.
“We've been due this.”
Added podcast co-host David Law: "It feels just about the ultimate, really, in the sport.
“Because not only is it the two of them, and them having been the dominant players, but it's Swiatek's territory and it's Sabalenka's world No.1 ranking and feeling of dominance.
"Those two colossal forces are colliding, and that is mouth-watering."
‘Sabatek’ duopoly
Before the tournament we reported on the Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz duopoly at the majors. The Italian and the Spaniard have collected the past five Slam titles between them and remain on track, as world No.1 and No.2, to clash in their first major final.
Sabalenka and Swiatek are the women’s equivalent.
Among active women’s players they own the best winning percentages at Grand Slam tournaments, and no women this decade have reached more major semifinals than either of them.
Since Ash Barty’s retirement just weeks after her Australian Open 2022 triumph, Swiatek and Sabalenka combined to win seven of the next 11 majors.
Yet they met just once at a Grand Slam event in that span; Swiatek recovered from 4-2 down in the third set of that epic 2022 US Open semifinal, and went on to win the trophy.
Beginning with Roland Garros in 2023, Swiatek and Sabalenka were seeded No.1 and No.2 at seven of the next eight majors, with Wimbledon last year the only outlier.
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Those seedings set the stage for Grand Slam final meetings, and twice they came within one point of making them happen.
Sabalenka led Karolina Muchova 5-2 in the third set of their 2023 Roland Garros semifinal, earning match point in the eighth game before the Czech served her way out of trouble and rebounded to win. At AO 2025, Swiatek held a match point against Keys deep in the third set of their semifinal, only for Keys to escape and subsequently stun Sabalenka in the final.
This meeting at the semifinal stage is due to Swiatek’s seeding; she recently dropped from world No.2 to No.5 after failing to defend her Madrid and Rome titles, entering Roland Garros seeded fifth.
Sabalenka the irresistible force
As Swiatek has fallen in the rankings, Sabalenka has become an increasingly dominant world No.1.
In the WTA live rankings she’s more than 4500 points ahead of second-ranked Coco Gauff and this season has already won three titles from six finals, the most recent on clay in Madrid.
She’s been equally imperious at Grand Slam level, not losing before the quarterfinal stage for three years. “That's crazy stats,” Sabalenka smiled when told she had contested her 10th consecutive major quarterfinal against Zheng Qinwen, which she won 7-6(3) 6-3.
“Honestly, I wasn't really thinking about that. I was really focused on the game. Yeah, that's crazy. That's crazy statistics.”
Thursday’s clash with Swiatek in Paris will be Sabalenka’s 11th Grand Slam semifinal – by far the most of any woman this decade.
And she can’t wait to test herself against the game’s best on clay.
“I love tough challenges,” she said.
“I think this is the matches where you actually improve as a player and where you get much stronger. And I’m always excited to face someone strong and then someone who can challenge me.
“I take it as a challenge, and I go out there and I fight, and I'm ready to leave everything I have to get the win.”
Swiatek the immovable object
Sabalenka might be the game’s dominant No.1 and premier force at the majors, but she is yet to break through at Roland Garros.
And that’s because the tournament is Swiatek’s domain.
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The Pole has won four of the past five French titles and the past three in a row; she last lost at the event in the 2021 quarterfinals to Maria Sakkari.
Since then Swiatek has won 26 consecutive French Open matches, the most recent a 6-1 7-5 win over Elina Svitolina in Tuesday’s quarterfinals.
This fortnight she surpassed streaks of 24 and 25 wins, set by Justine Henin and Monica Seles respectively, and approaches the all-time women’s record of 29, held by Chris Evert – the widely-anointed Queen of Clay.
Swiatek has won 40 of her first 42 matches at the tournament, a mark bettered only by the legendary Rafael Nadal.
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Having already equalled Margaret Court’s Open-era women’s record for the best winning percentage at Roland Garros, Swiatek closes in on more history.
A fourth consecutive singles title at Roland Garros would make her the first woman to do that since Suzanne Lenglen 102 years ago.
But first she’ll have to go through Sabalenka, a player who has pushed her to the limit – and even beaten her – on her favourite surface, most notably in two incredible Madrid finals.
“These finals were probably one of the best, most exciting finals that I played,” Swiatek said of those 2023 and 2024 battles.
“Against Aryna it’s always a challenge; she has a game for every surface. I need to just focus on myself, do the work, be brave with my shots and just go for it.
“She’s been having a great season, so I’m not going to lie – for sure it’s going to be a tough match. But I’m happy for a challenge.”