Elena Rybakina is rounding into form at the perfect time.
After a 13-month period during which she did not reach a final, Rybakina ended that drought last week in Strasbourg, where she won her first title since Stuttgart last year.
She has carried that form into Roland Garros, building a seven-match winning streak in the process – her latest a dominant 6-2 6-2 victory over this year’s Stuttgart winner Jelena Ostapenko.
It set up a blockbuster last-16 clash with four-time French champion Iga Swiatek who, in an hilarious press conference moment, made it obvious she hoped she would be facing Rybakina.
That’s because Ostapenko is Swiatek’s bogey opponent; the Latvian owns a staggering 6-0 winning record against her.
But Rybakina is a player who has historically spooked Swiatek, too.
Their head-to-head is locked at 4-4 and Swiatek has won the past two. Yet filter the series by matches most relevant to this encounter – those at Grand Slams, and meetings on clay – and Rybakina leads 3-0.
Swiatek is a generational great on this surface, with a record at Roland Garros that puts her among tournament legends. She is bidding to become the first woman in more than 100 years to win four consecutive women’s singles titles in Paris, and hasn't lost at the tournament since the 2021 quarterfinals.
But she is yet to beat Rybakina on clay, retiring in the third set of their 2023 Rome quarterfinal and suffering a three-set loss to the Kazakhstani in last year’s Stuttgart semis.
“It's tough to play against Iga on clay. She spins the ball really well. She has unbelievable intensity on the court, so it is not easy,” Rybakina assessed.
“I feel like Stuttgart, it's special tournament because it's indoor. The clay is also different. In Rome, it was again another condition, so I cannot take it as everything is the same.
“She plays really well. She moves really well on the court. So it's going to be difficult one.”
In their only previous Slam meeting, Rybakina beat Swiatek in straight sets at the same stage of Australian Open 2023. Rybakina went on to reach her second major final that fortnight, after triumphing at Wimbledon in 2022.
Could this be the first time, since she won her first Roland Garros title in 2020, that Swiatek does not enter a match at this venue as the favourite?
“Of course she's very comfortable on these courts. But… I will try to focus on myself mostly,” Rybakina said.
“We played so many times. I know what to do. We'll see how it goes. But definitely I will do my best.”
Beware the Strasbourg champion
Because of her serving prowess, clean-hitting power and Wimbledon title, Rybakina is widely considered a bigger threat on faster surfaces.
Yet she has historically thrived on clay.
Her first WTA singles title, in Bucharest, came on clay, as have her two most recent WTA titles. Her first Grand Slam quarterfinal came at Roland Garros in 2021.
Should she beat Swiatek, this would be her third trip to the last eight in Paris.
And her victory in Strasbourg bodes well, considering the tournament is a strong predictor of success in Paris. In the past six years the Strasbourg champion has never fallen before the third round at Roland Garros; in 2021 Barbora Krejcikova scooped both titles.
Sam Stosur, the 2017 Strasbourg winner who flew into the second week in Paris before a fractured hand bought her undone against eventual champion Ostapenko, explained why.
"Very similar conditions [in Strasbourg], courts are very similar. The centre court there's beautiful to play on. If it's raining in Paris, it's probably raining in Strasbourg,” Stosur said on this week’s episode of The Tennis.
“It's just a nice, easy week to guide yourself into a Grand Slam. Rybakina form also this year hasn't been outstanding, by her standard or level, so to win a title coming into a Grand Slam is always going to boost that confidence.
"If the conditions are right for Rybakina, that's going to be another tough one. So big, big test for Iga coming up.”