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Increasingly dominant, is clay Sabalenka’s next domain?

  • Matt Trollope

Aryna Sabalenka’s Miami Open triumph has cemented her status as the WTA’s increasingly-dominant world No.1 and positioned her for a successful campaign on clay.

Sabalenka, already the game’s leading hard-court player and a finalist at the three biggest hard-court events – Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami – this year, won her latest trophy with a 7-5 6-2 win over Jessica Pegula in the final, a repeat of last year’s Cincinnati and US Open finals and a similar straight-sets scoreline.

Sabalenka did not drop a set throughout her imperious fortnight in Miami, beating defending champion Danielle Collins in the last 16 then three consecutive top-10 opponents in Zheng Qinwen, Jasmine Paolini and Pegula to end her tournament with a flourish.

She usurps AO champion Madison Keys as No.1 in the WTA Race to the Finals, and is now more than 3000 points clear of world No.2 Iga Swiatek in the official rankings, earning a whopping 10,541 points over the past 52 weeks.

“I didn't want to lose another final, to be honest. It's really tough to lose in the final,” said Sabalenka, who narrowly lost to Keys in a thrilling AO 2025 final, and Mirra Andreeva in the Indian Wells decider.

“Finally I was able to play my best tennis in the final, and I'm just super happy with the result and with the performance, I'd say, these months.

“I'll just have a good vibes only for the next couple of weeks of preparation for the clay courts. It's super special.”

Since 1997, when Indian Wells was elevated to WTA 1000 level (then called Tier 1), just five women have reached the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami finals in the same year. Before Sabalenka it was Lindsay Davenport and Martina Hingis in 2000, Maria Sharapova in 2012, and Elena Rybakina in 2023.

And with Sabalenka’s victory in Miami, she adds another “big” hard-court title to her growing collection.

Of the 11 biggest hard-court titles in women’s professional tennis – two Grand Slams, the WTA Finals and eight WTA 1000 events – Sabalenka has won more than half of them, thanks to AO and US Open wins plus 1000-level triumphs in Qatar, Miami, Cincinnati and Wuhan.

Can she transfer her dominance to clay, a surface on which Swiatek has reigned?

Last year, Swiatek scooped the three biggest clay-court titles in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros, building a 19-match winning streak on the red dirt.

The flipside? She has more than 4000 ranking points to defend during the clay-court season over the next two-and-a-half months.

Sabalenka is defending less than 2000 points during the same period and knows she can succeed at the highest level on clay.

She held a match point against Swiatek in last year’s riveting Madrid final, then reached the Rome final. In 2023, she was a point away from the Roland Garros final; last year in Paris she was unlucky to be struck down with illness during her narrow quarterfinal defeat to Andreeva.

She’s a two-time Madrid champion (2021 and 2023) and in the past two seasons has enjoyed an 80 per cent success rate on clay, winning 29 of her 36 matches.

“I think physically I'm ready to go,” Sabalenka said when asked how she might fare at the biggest clay-court events in 2025.

“Physically I'm strong, and I'm not rushing the point and I know I can stay in the point for how long I need.

“I think that's the key, because I think I have got everything to be a good player on the clay court.

“I haven't talked to my team. But I can assume we're going to focus on my fitness.”

At Roland Garros in 2025 Swiatek is aiming to win her fourth consecutive title in Paris, a feat no woman has managed in more than 100 years.

But with Sabalenka the match-wins leader on tour this season, and brimming with confidence after her latest success, we could be set for a memorable clay-court season as the world’s top two players joust for supremacy.