World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka has been dealt a tough draw as she attempts to become the first woman to complete an AO hat-trick since Martina Hingis 26 years ago.
Sabalenka opens against former major champion Sloane Stephens and faces a projected quarterfinal against No.5 seed Zheng Qinwen, a replay of last year’s Australian Open final.
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She could then come up against Coco Gauff in a mouthwatering semifinal, the same stage at which the two superstars met here 12 months ago.
Sabalenka enters as the Brisbane champion, while Gauff went undefeated at the United Cup, helping Team USA to the title and beating world No.2 Iga Swiatek along the way.
Swiatek, seeded second, is in the bottom half of the AO 2025 draw away from Sabalenka and Gauff, yet faces a tough opening-round test against doubles world No.1 Katerina Siniakova.
Gauff the game-changer?
Sabalenka and Swiatek were assured of their top and bottom lines in the draw as the top two seeds. That meant all eyes were on Gauff, and where she would fall – and what this would mean for the world’s No.1 and No.2 players.
Ultimately, Sabalenka drew the short straw when Gauff landed in her half, given the young American is arguably the game’s hottest player right now.
Since the US Open, Gauff has won 18 of 20 matches, triumphing at Beijing’s China Open, the WTA Finals in Riyadh, and the United Cup.
She enters the tournament on a seven-match winning streak but has drawn a tough opener in Sofia Kenin, the AO 2020 champion who is through to this week’s Hobart quarterfinals. The last time they met, Kenin stunned Gauff in the first round of Wimbledon in 2023.
There’s a lot of play out, but should Gauff and Sabalenka lock horns in the semis, the American takes a winning 5-4 record into that match up.
She’s also won her past two against Swiatek, in straight sets.
Projected second-week match-ups
Another seed landing in Sabalenka’s path was Zheng, the in-form fifth seed who is on course to meet the world No.1 in the quarterfinals, and who opens against a qualifier.
Sabalenka dominates the head-to-head – she’s never lost to Zheng in five matches – but the Chinese rising star is getting closer, stretching Sabalenka to three sets in October’s Wuhan final.
Zheng finished the season as runner-up at the WTA Finals and inside the top five, and another deep run in Melbourne would captivate her growing fanbase.
Fourth seed Jasmine Paolini has landed in the bottom half of the draw, and in the same quarter as No.6 seed Elena Rybakina, putting them on track for another major quarterfinal clash. Paolini won their last, in the same stage at Roland Garros last year.
But that might not happen, given big-hitting seeded foes Danielle Collins, Madison Keys and Katie Boulter have all fallen in the same quarter.
Rybakina faces a fascinating first-round test against Australian wildcard Emerson Jones, last year’s AO girls’ singles finalists and the junior world No.1.
Dangerous floaters
Naomi Osaka is back in the top 50 after reaching last week’s Auckland final, but was an unseeded threat in this year’s draw. Incredibly, the two-time AO champion former world No.4 Caroline Garcia – again. Garcia beat Osaka in a high-quality first round match last year.
The reward for the winner? A likely second round meeting with 20th seed Karolina Muchova, a former top-10 player and Grand Slam giant.
The player who overcame an injured Osaka in the Auckland final, Clara Tauson, is one of the game’s biggest hitters and opens against 29th seed Linda Noskova, who stunned Swiatek in the third round at AO 2024.
The winner of Tauson-Noskova is projected for a third-round meeting with Sabalenka.
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Elsewhere, former world No.2 Ons Jabeur landed in the bottom quarter, where she opens against Ukraine’s Anhelina Kalinina.
A second-round clash awaits against No.31 seed Maria Sakkari, and should Jabeur keep winning, the three-time major finalist could meet No.8 seed Emma Navarro in the last 32.
Two more young stars, Emma Raducanu and Amanda Anisimova, have landed in the very bottom segment of the draw. They could meet in the second round, with the winner facing a likely third-round clash with Swiatek.
Former US Open champion Raducanu drew a tough first-rounder in 26th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova, while Anisimova – a Hobart quarterfinalist – opens against Maria Lourdes Carle.
First-round blockbusters
It’s hard to go past Sabalenka v Stephens as the biggest first-round match. But there’s also Gauff v Kenin.
All four players are Grand Slam champions.
Another one that we like is 16th seed Jelena Ostapenko, the 2017 Roland Garros winner, against former world No.4 Belinda Bencic, who continues her comeback after giving birth to daughter Bella last April.
Ostapenko and Bencic are in the same loaded section as Osaka, Garcia and Muchova, any of whom they could meet in the third round.
How did the Aussies fare?
Jones got the toughest first-round test in the form of 2022 Wimbledon winner Rybakina. Joining Jones in the bottom half is Olivia Gadecki, who drew former top-10 player Veronika Kudermetova.
But it’s also incredibly tough for fellow wildcard Maya Joint, who got seventh seed Jessica Pegula as her first rounder.
Former top Aussies Daria Saville and Ajla Tomljanovic drew Anna Blinkova and Ashlyn Krueger respectively, while rising star Talia Gibson opens against Turkey’s Zeynep Sonmez.
After the draw was released, Destanee Aiava won her final-round qualifying match to join her countrywomen in the main draw – but her first-round opponent is yet to be determined.
Two more Aussies, Kimberly Birrell and Elena Micic, are in final-round qualifying action later on Thursday.