On a 28-match winning streak at Melbourne Park, Novak Djokovic has triumphed in his past four Australian Open campaigns and in 2024 will target an extraordinary 11th AO title.
But will somebody finally stop the rampaging world No.1 on his favourite court in the world?
The top four women have separated themselves from the pack and all have started the new season brilliantly, making it tough to pick a winner from that quartet.
Or will it be someone else entirely, given the incredible depth throughout the WTA ranks?
We unpack all of that, and more, on the eve of Australian Open 2024.
Our panel
Todd Woodbridge: A 22-time Grand Slam doubles champion
Sam Stosur: 2011 US Open champion and now Australian Billie Jean King Cup captain
Wally Masur: Former world No.15 and previous Australian Davis Cup captain
Nicole Pratt: Former world No.35 and Australian women’s coach lead
Novak Djokovic has not lost an Australian Open match in six years. Will this remain the case in 2024?
WOODBRIDGE: "You just feel that at some point, that run has to come to an end, that something's going to happen to just change the course of history. But given the way he played last year, and the diligence in his preparations, I think he is the heavy favourite. And can the contenders knock him off? They believe they can this year. Novak has come into the Australian Open, and probably a lot of majors, with a niggle, and he's wonderfully good at managing his body. He knows how to get through it; he can play through pain.”
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STOSUR: “When someone says he hasn’t lost here for six years, you think he's a sure winner, but then you think: it can't keep happening, like is it going to come to an end at some point? Logic would suggest, but gee, I don't know, I think he's unbelievably hard to beat here, his record speaks for itself.”
MASUR: "I was scratching my head, and going, does that make him unbeatable or does that mean he’s just one match closer to losing? The big thing that struck me about Novak in 2023 was how he just caught fire in the second week of a major. Even at the US, against Laslo Djere, he didn't look comfortable, and you sort of think, OK, Novak's beatable. But he wasn't. Not in the second week. I don't worry too much about the wrist injury… He's had a lot of time to recover and he has a great team around him.”
PRATT: “Based on what I saw in Perth (at the United Cup) I think he’s in great shape to potentially not lose another match at the Australian Open. I thought he was striking the ball really well, moving great, obviously had that sore arm against Alex (de Minaur), but I think he's such a professional the way that he prepares. It's definitely going to be very hard to see him losing before the quarterfinals, semifinals. We all know what he does when he gets to the later stages of the tournament.”
Which man is most likely to break through and win their first AO?
WOODBRIDGE: "Those contenders are Sinner and Alcaraz. Those are the two in the draw that we know can beat Djokovic, and mentally they believe they can get him now at a major… and we've got to throw Medvedev in there as well. Will we see a change?”
STOSUR: “Alcaraz you have to think is always going to be up there, although he hasn't really ever played the Australian Open. I know he's going to be one of the top seeds, but literally it's a brand-new tournament for him, almost. Medvedev has obviously had success here but not won the title, but he can go deep on these courts – hardcourt is obviously the surface that he can play his best on. As far as experience, as far as trying to win through slams, maybe it's Medvedev or Alcaraz.”
MASUR: "Alcaraz and Sinner, they're just getting better all the time... I think someone like Sinner can back up everything he's achieved in 2023 with a Grand Slam win. I love Alcaraz, but Sinner was extraordinary at the back-end of 2023, Alcaraz a little quieter. We haven't really seen the best of him here in Australia ... Those two for me are the next two 'heirs apparent', and certainly Sinner the next ‘non-Slam winner’ to win one.”
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PRATT: “You've got to go Medvedev – he's super super dangerous. You've got these up-and-coming players, maybe they are on the verge of a break-through? We saw what Shelton did at the US Open. Rune… You've got some of those players that are knocking on the door.”
Aussie hopes have had a boost with Alex de Minaur cracking the top 10. How far can he go?
WOODBRIDGE: “I think he's got a tough draw… in Rublev and Sinner. I think getting to the quarterfinal is good; I think he reaches the fourth round. Raonic is a tough draw, we know that, but Alex is actually quite good against that big-serving (player).”
STOSUR: “He's had an unbelievable start to the year with the United Cup… I think he's playing obviously the best tennis of his career. He's got this game style where he can sort of adapt it, depending on who he's playing, he can play defence, but he can step up and play offensive when he needs too. I think he is starting to create maybe a few more weapons in his game where he can match that with the firepower of the bigger guys across the tour. Can't fault anything that's happened so far this year, so fingers crossed it keeps rolling for him.”
MASUR: "We talk about this cumulative effect of playing very, very good players ... if we presume that they all get through and they're fit and healthy, Demon gets Jarry in the third round, who he took care of pretty comfortably at the US Open. Rublev was next, followed by Sinner. Those two back-to-back seem like a difficult proposition. Can he do it? Yes, he can. But he's got some serious people in his way to get to a semifinal.”
PRATT: “I think it's really exciting where Alex is at, and credit to him – he's obviously worked tremendously, not just in the last twelve months but throughout his career. Unbelievable foot speed and the ability to get to balls that most people can only dream of getting too. I think depending on the draw for Alex, I'd love to see him in a quarterfinal. I think that would be a fantastic result. He's made a (major) quarterfinal before, but I think it's different in Australia – just feeling that home-town support but also home-town pressure.”
The women’s top four – Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina and Gauff – have all started the season on fire. Which of them has impressed you most?
WOODBRIDGE: "I think the women's tournament is set up to be perfect. I think Rybakina is the one to look for. Iga's obviously sort of in a league of her own, but also isn't perfect in that she dropped a set to Garcia, and always is that little bit edgy; I don't think she's as comfortable here as, say, she is in Paris. Rybakina is just looking so at home... someone asked me if she's overplayed? I don't think she has, and she's also winning matches, like the final of Brisbane 0 and 3. Short times on court, good easy scorelines, and just demolishing her opponents.”
STOSUR: “I think it's Rybakina or Sabalenka to be honest. That's the beauty of tournaments like this where you've got 120 odd players in there – the level is so good. (They’re) the top of the top for a reason because they are genuinely better than anyone else, but on any given day you can have upsets.”
MASUR: "I was very impressed with Rybakina in Brisbane ... conditions were just perfect and if there's not too many variables she hits winners from just about anywhere, such a pure ball-striker. I've always thought Iga is vulnerable to the likes of Sabalenka and Rybakina, on the right surface. But I really like the way she looks. I'm gonna go with Iga ... but in really good conditions, say a night match where it's still and perfect, gee, look out for Rybakina.”
PRATT: “I thought it was interesting that Gauff chose to go to New Zealand… not being tested (as much there) kind of leaves a bit of a question mark for me. You talk about Sabalenka, Rybakina, Swiatek… They're the four to beat. I think it's not a bad thing that Sabalenka lost (in the Brisbane final); I think when you lose the best players go back and reflect. For me, it's hard to go past Iga. She’s had a ton of matches, she was impressive, again winning some of those sets against quality opponents to love. I think she's just so precise. Her ability to execute time and time again is pretty awesome.”
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In an era of increasing consistency in the women’s game, who could be the biggest disruptor at AO 2024?
WOODBRIDGE: "I think Zheng (Qinwen). I kind of like her attitude; she's got a bit of sass about her. Big ball-striker, not scared to go for it. Other than that, honestly, the little outliers are Leylah Fernandez... and the one that always is there, and we're never quite sure, is Sakkari. She's capable.”
STOSUR: “I'm sure nobody's really hoping they draw Osaka early or a Kerber, I thought the match with Kerber and Ajla the other night (at the United Cup) was fantastic tennis, like you wouldn't think either of them had been out for that long. Experience can count for something - maybe Osaka can have a deep run? I don't know whether she can win it, necessarily, (as her) first Grand Slam back, but she's going to be a dangerous floater.”
MASUR: "I think the winner will come out of that four… but you can throw a blanket maybe over 10 women behind the top four. Look at Jess Pegula, Sakkari's done pretty well here in Australia and we know she's got game. Vondrousova’s tricky, Haddad Maia I like. I see a lot of women who can trouble the top four, certainly. Can they do damage in a match or two? Absolutely. Can they go all the way? Well until they do it, I'm not so sure.”
PRATT: “Pegula has always played well generally down here in Australia, and she causes some of those (top four) players problems with her ability to get through the court, especially the backhand – it's low and with the variety on her forehand it makes it difficult.”
Who will win the men’s and women’s singles titles?
WOODBRIDGE: "I'm going to go for Rybakina – I think she's ready to win more majors. Runner-up here last year, likes it, experienced. I think she's the one. And on the men's side, Djokovic is the favourite, but I think Sinner is ready."
STOSUR: “I'll go Djokovic. I went against him at Wimbledon, well yeah, I was right, but I don't know, I don't think I'll be right on that twice. (For the women) I'll go with the (title) defence of Sabalenka."
MASUR: "I'm gonna go with Iga, but I think Rybakina could make me look silly. (On the men's side) there was a campaign by former Australian prime minister Gough Whitlam with the slogan 'It's Time'. And I'm gonna go back to that... I think I'd almost go Novak, and I'm very impressed with and I love Carlos Alcaraz, but Sinner, at the back end of the year – if he can somehow translate that form, I think he can win it.”
PRATT: “My men's pick is Djokovic, you can't go past him. And my women's pick is Iga.”