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Why Felix Auger-Aliassime will win Australian Open 2026

  • Bede Briscomb

Felix Auger-Aliassime was in the zone in the second half of the season.

Outside of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, he heads to Australia as the most in-form player on tour, backed by a career-high No.5 ranking and a semifinal run at the season-ending ATP Finals.

Although Auger-Aliassime picked up two ATP 250 titles in early 2025, his season was falling short of expectations as the first seven months unfolded. With a 26-17 record and a ranking hovering just inside the top 30, he arrived at the Hopman Cup searching for momentum, then produced a wild 7-6(9) 5-7 [10-8] win over Flavio Cobolli to clinch the title for Canada.

In the months that followed, Auger-Aliassime won 24 of 31 matches. It was a run beginning with a Cincinnati Masters quarterfinal, then semifinals at the US Open and Shanghai Masters, then took in the Brussels title, Paris Masters final and a semifinal at the year-end championships in Turin.

Of the seven matches Auger-Aliassime lost in that stretch, five came to Sinner or Alcaraz.

The surge pushed him to 50 wins for the season, making him the first Canadian man in the Open era to record multiple 50-win seasons (the other came in 2022).

With confidence restored and his body finally cooperating, the 25-year-old said he feels like a genuine threat again.

“[I feel] back where I belong. Back where I feel like I can play with more consistency,” said Auger-Aliassime, who celebrated another milestone when he married long-time girlfriend Nina Ghaibi in September.

“It's great progression I've had this year. I've always believed that since I was a kid, my ambition was to win Grand Slams and be No. 1 in the world. I've had ups and downs, but honestly, through it all, I always believed I could be there.

“I still believe today. Now it's a matter of doing the right things to improve. If I do, we'll see where that leaves me.”

Raised by a tennis-instructor father from Togo and a French-Canadian mother who worked as a teacher, Auger-Aliassime picked up a racquet at age four and developed into a world-leading junior who became the 2016 US Open boys’ singles champion.

His career has been defined in part by success in team settings. In 2024, Auger-Aliassime partnered Gabriela Dabrowski to win a mixed doubles bronze medal at the Paris Olympics. Two years prior, he was the driving force in Canada’s Davis Cup run, beating Alcaraz in the group stage, Musetti in the semifinals and De Minaur in the final to deliver the country’s first title.

Yet he has also been a consistent deep threat in majors, having now reached the US Open semifinals twice, Wimbledon and Australian Open quarterfinals once and two fourth rounds at Roland Garros.

“I still haven’t won a Masters 1000 title or a Grand Slam. They are the biggest categories of tournament and the toughest to win, so if you do capture one in your career, that’s huge,” he told the ATP.

“Those are still to do. But winning the Davis Cup, winning an Olympic medal were huge. I think capturing a medal goes beyond your sport.”

The idea of leaving an impact outside tennis is something Auger-Aliassime carries naturally. At 20, he served on the ATP Player Council, and during that time partnered with BNP Paribas to launch a program supporting children in his father’s native Togo.

The #FAAPointsForChange initiative began with a simple structure: Auger-Aliassime donated $5 to EduChange for every point he won at the Paris Masters, while the tournament contributed an additional $15 per point.

“We’ve been able to raise several hundred thousand dollars to support a cause close to my heart,” said Auger-Aliassime, who also won the ATP’s Arthur Ashe Humanitarian of the Year award in 2023 in recognition of his impact beyond the court. “For me, it’s a way to add meaning to my tennis success and give back.”

Despite his off-court maturity and growing resume, two very obvious obstacles still stand between Auger-Aliassime and his goals.

While his record against Sinner and Alcaraz is lopsided, he’s had more success against them than many of his rivals outside the top two. Auger-Aliassime has won two of six encounters with Sinner – pushing the Italian to four sets in the recent US Open semifinals – and three of eight against Alcaraz.

Against the rest of his major challengers, Auger-Aliassime has split his two meetings with Novak Djokovic, has won his two most recent matches against Alexander Zverev, leads De Minaur 3–1 and is 2–0 against Ben Shelton.

After weathering early-career growing pains, Auger-Aliassime is back where he belongs. Riding a wave of momentum into Australian shores, there is perhaps no man outside the top two better positioned for a title run at Melbourne Park.