You could argue this is the most wide-open men’s tournament at Roland Garros since 2004.
We did say something similar in the lead-up to last year’s tournament, but it mostly followed the form guide; three of the top four seeds were semifinalists, Casper Ruud returned to his second straight final, and Novak Djokovic triumphed for the third time.
Roland Garros 2004 is significant, being the last edition of the event before Rafael Nadal began his record-shattering reign. He won on debut in 2005, the first of nine French trophies in a 10-year span.
In 2024, question marks hover over Nadal and his physical health, just as they did 20 years ago – which ultimately forced him to skip the 2004 tournament.
Although Roger Federer was then world No.1 and the reigning Wimbledon and Australian Open champion, he was less assured on clay. He did win the 2004 Hamburg Masters title, but just like in 2024, the biggest clay-court prizes that season were shared among several players.
Guillermo Coria triumphed in Monte Carlo. Tommy Robredo reigned in Barcelona. At the Rome Masters, Carlos Moya prevailed.
In Paris, defending champion Juan Carlos Ferrero was stunned in the second round. Federer was gone by the third round. Just one top-four seed reached the quarterfinals. Unseeded Argentine Gaston Gaudio was eventual champion.
Andy Roddick was the No.2 seed that year, and also exited in the second round. He believes one must go back even further to find a men’s major as wide open as Roland Garros in 2024.
“I think you're going back to like 2002. Wimbledon was a mess in '02, everyone lost,” the former world No.1 said on his Served with Andy Roddick podcast.
“(Top seed Lleyton) Hewitt won, but it was like (Xavier) Malisse, (Greg) Rusedski, a bunch of guys who weren't in the top 20."
At 2002 Wimbledon, just two of the top 16 seeds survived beyond the third round. Will we see a similarly extreme scenario unfold in Paris this year?
"At Roland Garros, it's going to be weird, because who are the favourites?” Roddick wondered. “I think there's 15 guys who could convince themselves they could win this tournament."
Neither Todd Woodbridge nor Sam Stosur think it’s quite that many, but the Australian greats agreed the tournament was the most open of all since that 2004 edition.
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"The draw is the key thing. Rafa could come up against anyone because he's unseeded,” Woodbridge said. “The draw will have a major impact on who becomes the champion. Often that is not the case in the men's game.”
In ranking order, we examine the chances of 10 players in the conversation.
Novak Djokovic
Clay win-loss: 5-2 (after winning 2R Geneva)
Best result: SF Monte Carlo
Just twice in his storied career has Djokovic entered Roland Garros without winning a title earlier in the same season.
The last time was 2018; the time before that was 2006.
The defending champion needs a deep run in the French capital to maintain his position as world No.1, which would put him on the brink of an all-time record 25th Grand Slam singles title.
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Having just turned 37, Djokovic could become the second-oldest Grand Slam singles champion in Open-era history, after Ken Rosewall at Australian Open 1972.
“I find it fascinating that he's gone to Geneva (this week),” Stosur said. “A good move, but I still find it interesting that he's trying to chase this feeling, going into Roland Garros.”
Jannik Sinner
Clay win-loss: 6-1
Best result: SF Monte Carlo
Sinner’s blazing 28-2 start to the season has been halted by a hip injury, forcing him to withdraw ahead of his Madrid Masters quarterfinal.
It’s a race against time for the Italian star to get fit for Roland Garros, but in positive signs, he’s back on the practice court.
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“If Sinner is healthy, he's then fresh (for Roland Garros), and he's the player of the year so far,” said Woodbridge, who believes the young Italian is the favourite if he’s fit.
Sinner reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal in Paris in 2020.
Carlos Alcaraz
Clay win-loss: 3-1 (since Miami)
Best result: QF Madrid
For the past two seasons, Alcaraz has been perhaps the most consistently strong player on clay, winning Barcelona and Madrid back-to-back in both 2022 and 2023. He was also a Roland Garros semifinalist last year.
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Yet a right forearm injury has limited him to just four matches on clay in the past two months, and prevented him from properly unleashing his venomous forehand.
In an encouraging update, the two-time major winner has resumed training and just arrived in Paris with his team.
“Alcaraz is such a brilliant player, and will be, but he's still building a robust body,” Woodbridge said. “He's such a young athlete; we have to remember that and give him leeway.
“If he gets going and he is fit and healthy, of course, he can go on and win there as well.”
Alexander Zverev
Clay win-loss: 10-3
Best result: Won Rome
The three-time Roland Garros semifinalist just last week won his second title in Rome – his fourth ATP Masters 1000 trophy on clay.
Zverev is back up to world No.4, and Stosur believes the German is timing his run just right.
“I think his last six months or so have been very consistently good,” she said, “and he’s playing big tennis again and feeling like he belongs right up there.”
Daniil Medvedev
Clay win-loss: 6-3
Best result: QF Madrid
Famously averse to clay in his younger days, Medvedev reframed that narrative with his Rome Masters victory in 2023
He also reached the Roland Garros quarterfinals in 2021, and returned to the second week in 2022.
This year Medvedev has been consistent, rather than spectacular, on European red clay, with last-16 runs in Monte Carlo and Rome either side of his quarterfinal finish in Madrid.
Andrey Rublev
Clay win-loss: 7-3
Best result: Won Madrid
Rublev’s two biggest titles – ATP Masters trophies in Monte Carlo (2023) and Madrid (2024) – have both come on clay.
He is also a two-time quarterfinalist in Paris, where Stosur thinks he might fly somewhat under the radar.
“I think if there's ever a time in his career, having just won Madrid, he's probably thinking like, OK, well nobody's going to really talk about me, there's these other favourites around but I might be able to be the one that sneaks through,” she said.
“(Suddenly) you find yourself in a semi, and if you get to that point – who knows? He's got a big game that he actually can do damage with.”
Casper Ruud
Clay win-loss: 13-4
Best result: Won Barcelona
After losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Monte Carlo Masters final, Casper Ruud avenged that loss in the next week’s Barcelona final, earning the biggest title of his career.
Ruud, a former world No.2, has reached the past two Roland Garros finals, and Woodbridge wouldn’t be surprised if the Norwegian excels once more in Paris, where he prefers the five-set format on clay.
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“He's that consistent one that gets through to the finals. But this may be his chance (to better that) – it just depends on mentally how he looks at it,” Woodbridge said.
“Can he make three finals in a row? That's hard to do.”
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Clay win-loss: 13-3
Best result: Won Monte Carlo
Tsitsipas’ return to form has been one of the stories of the clay-court season.
After briefly falling outside the top 10 for the first time since 2019, the Greek returned after victory in Monte Carlo, and won 10 straight clay-court matches by reaching the Barcelona final. He also came within a set of the Rome semifinals.
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A runner-up at Roland Garros in 2021, Tsitsipas has caught Woodbridge’s eye.
“I think his form, over the clay-court season, has brought him back to being in that space (of Roland Garros favouritism). He truly, I think, would believe he can win one,” Woodbridge said.
“No player, really, in this clay-court season, has played better than him overall.”
Taylor Fritz
Clay win-loss: 10-5
Best result: Final Munch
The American has been signing off his victories in Europe with “Claylor” on the camera lens.
It’s no surprise, given he has won 10 of his past 14 matches on clay, following his Munich final with a semifinal run in Madrid and quarterfinal finish in Rome.
Fritz has reached the quarterfinals at all three clay-court Masters 1000 events during his career – something no other American man has achieved since this tournament category was created in 1990.
“If you're Taylor Fritz, you're going to go into Roland Garros absolutely thinking that you can potentially do it,” Stosur said.
Rafael Nadal
Clay win-loss: 5-3
Best result: 4R Madrid
The Spanish legend has shown glimpses of his formidable talents on clay, especially during an exciting run to the last 16 of the Madrid Masters.
Djokovic has declared Nadal his favourite for the title. "Obviously it's a little different with his level of play. But it's Roland-Garros, and it's Nadal,” Djokovic said of the 14-time champion, in comments reported by AFP.
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Woodbridge isn’t so sure. “I find it hard to believe that Rafa can really contend in the second week, given his physical status,” he said.
Yet according to Stosur, whatever Nadal does in Paris will resonate.
“Will it be Rafa's final Roland Garros as well?” she said. “There's going to be lots of emotion around.”