Many observers agree that this is the most open Roland Garros tournament on the men's side in 20 years, or possibly longer.
On the women's side, most believe it's hard to see anybody stopping relentless world No.1 Iga Swiatek.
This is the state of play as the 2024 edition of Roland Garros draws closer, and we chatted to our experts to get their thoughts on what might unfold – and who they believe will be crowned champion in Paris.
Our panel
Sam Stosur: 2011 US Open champion and now Australian Billie Jean King Cup captain
Todd Woodbridge: A 22-time Grand Slam doubles champion
Jelena Dokic: Former world No.4 and Italian Open champion in 2001
Wally Masur: Former world No.15 and previous Australian Davis Cup captain
With the men’s game becoming more open while the women’s appears more stable and consistent at the top, what have you made of this after so many years of the opposite?
STOSUR: "Especially for Roland Garros, the men's event has typically been Rafa wins, Djokovic is in the final, Djokovic might win a couple. But's that's very hard to see happening this time around, which is unique. It'll be very interesting to see who can get through that men's side. On the women's side, I think it's very hard to go past Iga.”
WOODBRIDGE: "You go back to 2004 – Gaston Gaudio won. And we haven't been in a situation where a tournament was as open in 20 years. (Only) four men have won the tournament since then. And obviously it's been owned by Rafa. I think the most interesting thing, in that respect, is: who is willing to step up and handle the stress, the pressure, the expectation, and walk through that door? This is where the tournament has flipped on its head. We used to ask: ‘is Rafa going to win it again?’ And he did. Now this is where the women's game is at – Swiatek idolises Rafa and she's starting to emulate him on this surface.”
DOKIC: "It was always going to be hard after that Federer, Nadal, Djokovic trio. Once that kind of goes, we were all kind of going to be in shock. We all said we need to enjoy it while we can, because once that goes, we'll see just how dominant and amazing they were. But I actually think we have a little bit of a trio, with Sinner, Alcaraz, and Novak – OK, yes, he’s in a little bit of a slump – and then kind of Medvedev there with the hard courts. But you still have to put them ahead of others. But all of a sudden, injuries have happened. We'll see what happens. Is this potentially a chance for someone?”
MASUR: "We're starting to see that Big Three, in the women's game, they're more consistent week-in, week-out. We're not seeing those matches where it just doesn't happen for them. Iga has been dominant on clay for a while … it's hard to go past Swiatek. But conditions will play a part in Paris, as they quite often do.”
Swiatek has enjoyed another brilliant clay-court swing and has dominated recently at Roland Garros. Is she going to reign again in Paris, or will someone stop her?
STOSUR: "I think it's going to be pretty hard for anyone, especially in the early rounds, to really make a dent. We've seen previously: bagel, bagel, one game, two games here. If you're lucky, maybe three. I think she's far superior, at the moment, than a lot of the draw. You never know what goes on in someone's head; winning those two titles back-to-back, does that increase the pressure on her? But I do feel like she's one player who's the most prepared to combat situations. With all of these match wins, she's created the aura: 'I don't want to play Iga, I'm scared to play Iga'. How do you get through her? Sabalenka is right up there; the Rome final was pretty easy but Madrid was a very different prospect. So who knows what might happen again if they end up in the final in Paris?”
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WOODBRIDGE: “Swiatek can only get in her own way. You have to be able to dilute that pressure and still enjoy the moment. One of the harder things she often gets dealt is these winning streaks, and that builds pressure, because the media asks her about it. She can never ignore it because people bring it up. It could be interesting, but when I look at the top 10 seeds in the women, there's only three – Sabalenka, Rybakina and Gauff – that legitimately can put pressure on Iga.”
DOKIC: "It's hard to see someone stopping her, isn't it. For me she's turning into that dominance of Rafa; I know he's got so many more Roland Garros titles, but she's only 22 years of age. She's going for her fourth in five years. So that is that kind of clay dominance like Nadal, winning all of these 1000 tournaments on clay. It really reminds me of a Steffi Graf-type of consistency, in winning all of those matches, and just the brutality of it. She doesn't lose focus. It's incredible. I think she and Sabalenka are really developing a rivalry. Rybakina, when she's healthy and playing consistently, can cause damage. To be honest, on clay, for me, the only one that's got kind of the complete package is Iga.”
MASUR: “There's players who can beat her, there's no question, but you would almost think that Swiatek has to be a little off, or conditions have to be a little lively and someone like a Sabalenka or Rybakina are completely on. Unless the expectations just make Swiatek overcome with the moment, but I don't think so. It's on her racquet, put it that way. But think about Gauff, Keys, Haddad Maia, Ostapenko; there are players who on a given day can disrupt proceedings.”
Men’s defending champion Djokovic has looked almost the opposite to Swiatek coming into Paris. Can he repeat his triumph and remain at No.1?
STOSUR: "It's all about his mental space and where he's at right now. We all know how good he normally is and it's being critical right now to say he's lacking in something. But by his standards, he really is. That 6-2 6-3 loss in Rome is just unfathomable; that just does not happen.”
WOODBRIDGE: "I think it's a good move playing Geneva, I think he needs matches under his belt. He needs to get into that routine of winning. I think fitness is OK; it's actually the mindset, he has not been switched on in matches. And when he's like that, he doesn't play anywhere near his very best tennis. It's been a long time since we've seen him like that. You know what could work? And this is an outside stab – ring up Goran and get him back. There's nobody that he can go to in the team that knows better how he reacts under pressure.”
DOKIC: "Don't take anything away from Djokovic, because he thrives with kind of going against adversity, and maybe people not looking at him as the favourite, like they weren't last year. We'll see how much he's able to get out of this week; everyone is really surprised that he's playing Geneva. That would signal that he just wants matches. If he gets a few matches, players like him get confidence very very quickly.”
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MASUR: “Djokovic is interesting, because in recent years he's played a very careful schedule, and has absolutely timed it right, to get enough matches to be rested yet physically ready and confident to be ready for a Slam. That doesn't appear to be the case in his lead-up to the French. Didn't get the result he wanted in Rome, which would have been a bit of a surprise, so he's obviously looking for a bit more on-court time. When a player like Tabilo beats Novak (in Rome), it's a bit like there's blood in the water. The sharks circle. There's a sense that he's vulnerable. Instead of the idea he's absolutely infallible, people get a little more belief when they step out on court (against him). But never, ever discount him – he is a champion.”
How many men do you consider to be legitimate title chances at Roland Garros in 2024?
STOSUR: "I think 15 is out there. But if you're one of those guys, you have to think that. So it depends how you want to look at it. Rublev is I think someone we haven't spoken about at all; he won Madrid, he's been consistent, he's been to the quarters (at Roland Garros). He's got a big game that he actually can do damage with, a little bit more than someone like Ruud. The guys you would think would be the ones stepping up to take that championship – Sinner and Alcaraz – are under injury clouds, and now Tsitsipas is coming up, putting his hand up. I quite like what Zverev is doing at the moment. Then you’ve got Djokovic; he's going to Geneva this week to see what he can do there, and that in itself is quite intriguing for me. And will it be Rafa's final Roland Garros as well? So there's going to be lots of emotion around.”
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WOODBRIDGE: "Six. If I can rattle them off, I'd would say Djokovic, Sinner, Alcaraz – if they're fit – Zverev, Tsitsipas, and you've got to put Ruud in there. He's two-time runner-up. But he's the one that doesn't have the extra weapon to win. If I was to look right now with the preparation leading in plus the way they have performed at Roland Garros, I'd say an outside chance goes to Zverev. Having won in Rome, having had good memories in Paris, in the sense of playing the very best tennis of his life before he blew his ankle out, but then managing to come back and make the semis last year when he hadn't had form. It's a feel-good place for him, and there's a big opportunity there for him to win a Slam. But also, Tsitsipas is my player that I'm looking at. I think his form, over the clay-court season, has brought him back to being in that space.”
DOKIC: "I think you have potentially five, six guys who could win it. Don't forget, Capser Ruud didn't have the greatest preparation last year going into the French, and he still got to the final. Zverev winning Rome; I think he’s someone who is potentially the next Grand Slam champion. Could you have someone like Rublev? Like Tsitsipas? And don't ever underestimate Medvedev. I actually think to be honest with you that a lot – a lot – will develop in the first week of the French that would signal maybe who might win the men's.”
MASUR: "Different players have won (the biggest clay titles). Injuries are a bit concerning, aren't they. Just prior to a major, I sort of think: would you pull out if this was a major, or are you making sure you're right for the major? Rublev played with a bit of duress in Madrid; he’s a bit like Sabalenka, just strikes the ball … it's just hard to diffuse that power from both wings. Give him those lively conditions in Paris, and if he's feeling the same, look out. Zverev I like ... he's got so many things he does well, and he's a competitor, and he believes. I think if Alcaraz plays his best tennis, he's gonna win it, on clay. Can he find his best tennis over two weeks?”
Who will be the women’s and men’s singles champions?
STOSUR: "I think Iga is the clear favourite. And for the men, I'll say Zverev."
WOODBRIDGE: "Swiatek’s Rome win has put a seal on it, almost, at this point. I'm going to go with Tsitsipas, but I need to know how Sinner's health is first. He's back on court, so that means they're trying to make it. I think Sinner could win Roland Garros if he's healthy. Otherwise Tsitsipas."
DOKIC: “Swiatek. We don't know who's gonna play the men’s event, and that makes it very difficult. I would usually say it would be a Sinner or an Alcaraz, or Novak. Sinner's been the best player on the planet the last six months, there's no doubt about it. And I'd pick Alcaraz ahead of Sinner on clay, but he's barely had any matches. At this point it's all a big ‘if’, but I actually wouldn't be surprised if we have a new winner. Let me go with Zverev or Ruud.”
MASUR: "All things being equal, Swiatek is my favourite, I'm sure she's the bookies' favourite, and I think most people would agree that she's the favourite going in. Among the men I'm going with Alcaraz, if he plays his very best and if we assume he's fit. With Zverev looming."